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Real-Time news about Aurelian (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|johncraven: Ive now got 1.5million shares in AUL and accepting the merger due to the current SLE valuation/assets etc. AUL now valued at over 11p with merger. So still no reduction in the AUL - SLE share price gap.|
|ohisay: I wasn't going to post anything here as I exited at 10.25p yesterday at a small profit.I bought all the way down from 13.7p to 7.4p.But as Greenroom looks like he's the only one thinking on here I'll add a comment or two
I too had a risked nav of around 20p - cash 8p /Siek 6/7p/ rest 5p.It was a reasonable punt.
Its sad for AUL that effectively they only had only one offer that valued their European gas assets at such a small EV but that's a valuation fact - they took 9 months over it after all.They wanted (as announced in Feb) a big partner to spend several 100m$ capex to fully develop that nominal Siek CPR.See that Finncap note from February!
What does that say about how the market might value SLE's European gas assets - I'm not surprised they were weaker first thing yesterday.
I think the landscape has changed for shale in Poland since SLE /AUL were investors favorites last year - country reserves reduced - majors exiting( in all likelihood Talisman too as they exit non core assets).3legs has only just been trading above cash too - a tad better now they may have had a discovery.But in general decent valuable conventional /non conv. gas discoveries across mainland Europe have been few and far between these last few years
So I've no wish to be in SLE for its Euro gas assets.
The rest yes - I'd happily be in for Ireland /Morocco etc.But their funding model is anachronistic IMV - it stopped being rel easy for Aim co's to get hold of cash 18mths/2 years ago.
They have this huge disparate bunch of assets with not much cash - I just don't think they can possibly have the proper focus to use that AUL cash well over the next year.Their model is a recipe for disappointment unless they get very lucky.
Cash in fact would be better spent outside European gas IMV unless they have a compelling target.
I wish all SLE holders well but even at 8p its too high for me.I can see more dilutive placings/larger then ideal farmouts over the next 18 months.
If you want Euro gas or UK gas look at EDR 10m market cap 3m cash AND a catalyst for some share price growth before the end of the year - if you look.
Oh and yes IF you want to be in SLE then AUL would be a buy tommorow not SLE.|
|greenroom78: JC - Sorry but I disagree. There are plenty of reasons that people sell for. To get the SLE price you have to wait until early next year and you have no guarantee it will be 8p then (it might be double that it might be less, who knows?).
IMO those selling are the ones that had hoped for a better deal than the one on offer. I too have considered it. I bought just under 9p with a target of 15-20p in a 3-6 month period based on a farm out of Siekierki or better still a takeover for cash (or paper from a major). I did not expect a slightly better than cash offer from another junior to get the approval of the IIs and personally I'm not impressed by it. My guess is management are recommending it because they already have their futures guaranteed.
I cannot deny that by selling sub 10p you would be giving them away cheaper than current value but it is clear from my above statement why they will trade at a discount. SLE share price is not fixed and you have no guarantees of getting 10.5p for each AUL share when it closes as SLE can still fall. I would expect this discount to reduce as the merger date gets closer.
This is added risk whether you like it or not.
Buying SLE is daft though, because if you want to buy into SLE today with a view to holding long term (and you believe the deal will go ahead) you may as well buy AUL and take advantage of thee discount.
IMO you are wrong for condemning people who want or need to sell, however those thinking of owning a combined company long term should be buying AUL and not SLE while this discount is this wide (IMO).|
|bones30: > SLE is one of the most undervalued companies on AIM in comparison.
You could argue that this was a clever move by SLE as it values AUL assets at close to zero, but was an alternative to raising capital which SLE would have likely have had to have done at a pretty horrific discount to the share price. This is, I suspect, the reason why SLE's share price was/is so low. So in a sense this was a cheap way to get some funding together.
With the funding shackles off perhaps SLE's share price can now make progress, which in turn will reflect favourably in AUL's.|
|odvod: because aul price is now determined by sle share price * cca. 1.3|
|johncraven: ohsiay - thats what people were saying on the way to 80p. Just kept rising and rising. The demand for oil and gas shares will increase in the near future and the potential of 2013 being a big year for Aurelian could see a share price of last years high of 80-90p without any further dilution to shares in issue. So infact within 12 months could easy see 8 -9 times current share price.|
|ghhghh: I saw press article yesterday claiming that muted share price rise because market thinks AUL directors overvaluing their company (as all directors do) and that few companies want to buy AUL.
But Toscafund own circa 23% and last bought shares end of Oct at circa 20P?
And Kulezyk now own 13.77% and last bought 7th November at circa 23p (from rough guess looking share price graph)
Kulezyk are the obvious buyer? And since last bought 2 months agao can't launch a bid at less than last price paid for another 4 months?
And Kulezyk and AUL share directors. Hence must have good idea of value Kulezyk putting on AUL.
Are Toscafund and Kulezyk totally seperate companies.
My best guess is that Toscafund bought with the intention of supporting a bid for AUL by Kulezyk.
Hence the leaked 25p offer to put pressure on AUL Board.
I doubt AUL will sell for more than 25p but IMO we will get a bid around 23p to 25p very soon.
Toscafund will want to get best possible return so hopefully interests aligned with us.
But why is the share price still bombed out?
Large sellers now under more stringent disclosure requirements so will be interesting to see who is selling.|
|grazzer: jc - I wouldn't leave it for a few months quite yet as we should get some news flow in Jan/Feb(but I know what you mean about Aul and paint etc)
Good progress being made on the review of the Siekierki Project;
Final results will be announced at the end of January 2012 following incorporation of well test data of Krzesinki-1(result expected mid Jan) into the analysis. The January update will include a full diagnostic assessment of the MFHW (T-2 & T-3), the implications for GIIP and ultimate recovery from the field. An update on commercialisation options for the gas discovered to date, as well as an updated appraisal plan and pathway to a new field development plan.
Independent consultants, RPS Energy ("RPS") have been engaged to produce a new Competent Persons Report ("CPR") and have begun review of the updated prospect inventory; and
New CPR expected to be complete end February 2012.
-- The Company will provide an updated Corporate Strategy in light of the revised Siekierki appraisal plan and new exploration prospect inventory at the end of January 2012.
It seems to me there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment which is why the Aul share price is languishing. A good update should boost the share price and maybe the bids which have been rumoured to be floating around may come back into play. I've spent another £20K on Aul shares recently backing my hunch. Fingers crossed ...|
|johncraven: Would EOG share price have any relation to AUL share price?|
|grazzer: Was hearing about Paul McKenna's new book about being happy on the drive into work. No need for it. Just take a peek every now and again at the AUL share price. A joy to behold ...
Edit : Sorry, almost forgot
Hare hare, krishna krishna, Rowen Rowen, hare hare|
Aurelian Oil & Gas share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange