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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aurelian | AUL | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 10.125 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.125 | 10.125 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 25/1/2013 09:42 by utrecht_00 when do Aul shares get converted into SLE ones? |
Posted at 09/1/2013 09:08 by ssunn JohncravenThe arb has opened up as I type...SLE 9.04-9.18 AUL 10.75-11.00. 9.04pps bid SLE = 11.75pps AUL = about 7% .....9.18pps = 11.93pps or 8.5% |
Posted at 04/1/2013 05:39 by ssunn I bought 50k AUL yesterday @ 10.5pps which was the closing bid. The closing offer on SLE was 9.05 which is AUL 11.76pps equivalent....or effectively puts me into SLE at sub 8pps ! A 12% discount for doing nothing..crazy ! |
Posted at 14/11/2012 12:12 by johncraven Ive now got 1.5million shares in AUL and accepting the merger due to the current SLE valuation/assets etc. AUL now valued at over 11p with merger. So still no reduction in the AUL - SLE share price gap. |
Posted at 13/11/2012 22:17 by imabastard Greenroom .... I know you asked a question about the merits of SLE. I can only write from an SLE shareholder perspective.The gas potential is huge .... Siciny .... asset value (gas value) based on 10%/20% extraction as cited by John Buggenhagen the Exploration Director with 450 BCF per square mile and over 1,000 square miles (without any AUL acreage) and based on current prices paid for gas in Poland .... anything from £60 Billion to £240 Billion. Siciny due to test this quarter ... Talisman not involved in Siciny at all. Poland want gas, politically, above all else .... they'll make it work. .... but better than that in relation to how swiftly to monetise an asset. The oil (without any acreage from AUL) 20 well programme, first well they hit oil, second well spudded, awaiting results .... believed to be a 'Mississipian' type oil play (Google it) .... low cost .... less than £1 Million drill cost per well .... with their seismics, they quote an 80% success rate with every drill .... potential billions of barrels if the 'Miss' type is proven. Cash from oil produced will be immediate .... and contracts already in place for all oil they can produce .... no surprise as Poland is a large nett importer of oil. This is all very lovely sounding .... but until they come up with the estimated oil in place and flow rates .... "sounding" it will remain .... but news is due within weeks .... now if they come up with some healthy numbers .... the SLE price could easily rise swiftly to 25p + .... depends on the numbers .... but if there will be 20 wells producing 500 - 1500 Bopd and Billions of barrels OIIP .... it easy to see how the price could escalate dramatically. If the SLE price rose to 25p before Christmas, as an example, the AUL deal per share would be worth 32.5p .... and so on. Far from guaranteed .... nothing ever is .... but it would certainly look 'sweeter' for all. This was just to give you a view from the other side of the potential merger. |
Posted at 13/11/2012 18:09 by ohisay I wasn't going to post anything here as I exited at 10.25p yesterday at a small profit.I bought all the way down from 13.7p to 7.4p.But as Greenroom looks like he's the only one thinking on here I'll add a comment or twoI too had a risked nav of around 20p - cash 8p /Siek 6/7p/ rest 5p.It was a reasonable punt. Its sad for AUL that effectively they only had only one offer that valued their European gas assets at such a small EV but that's a valuation fact - they took 9 months over it after all.They wanted (as announced in Feb) a big partner to spend several 100m$ capex to fully develop that nominal Siek CPR.See that Finncap note from February! What does that say about how the market might value SLE's European gas assets - I'm not surprised they were weaker first thing yesterday. I think the landscape has changed for shale in Poland since SLE /AUL were investors favorites last year - country reserves reduced - majors exiting( in all likelihood Talisman too as they exit non core assets).3legs has only just been trading above cash too - a tad better now they may have had a discovery.But in general decent valuable conventional /non conv. gas discoveries across mainland Europe have been few and far between these last few years So I've no wish to be in SLE for its Euro gas assets. The rest yes - I'd happily be in for Ireland /Morocco etc.But their funding model is anachronistic IMV - it stopped being rel easy for Aim co's to get hold of cash 18mths/2 years ago. They have this huge disparate bunch of assets with not much cash - I just don't think they can possibly have the proper focus to use that AUL cash well over the next year.Their model is a recipe for disappointment unless they get very lucky. Cash in fact would be better spent outside European gas IMV unless they have a compelling target. I wish all SLE holders well but even at 8p its too high for me.I can see more dilutive placings/larger then ideal farmouts over the next 18 months. If you want Euro gas or UK gas look at EDR 10m market cap 3m cash AND a catalyst for some share price growth before the end of the year - if you look. Oh and yes IF you want to be in SLE then AUL would be a buy tommorow not SLE. |
Posted at 13/11/2012 17:52 by johncraven Ok we will have to agree to disagree agreeably!To sell AUL is NUTS from my point of view due to the: (1) Discount to SLE (Quite substantial) (2) No value reaslised from Merger. (3) Big fall from pre-merger price of 9.5p on SLE (4) Your not tied up in AUL as its still a liquid stock ,and a rise on SLE will cause AUL to rise substantially. (5) If SLE rise from here your not only selling at a discount to the actual price (now) the price will go the complete oposite direction. In Summary forced sellers cant help it but I would of thourght they would be out by now. |
Posted at 13/11/2012 16:40 by greenroom78 JC - Sorry but I disagree. There are plenty of reasons that people sell for. To get the SLE price you have to wait until early next year and you have no guarantee it will be 8p then (it might be double that it might be less, who knows?).IMO those selling are the ones that had hoped for a better deal than the one on offer. I too have considered it. I bought just under 9p with a target of 15-20p in a 3-6 month period based on a farm out of Siekierki or better still a takeover for cash (or paper from a major). I did not expect a slightly better than cash offer from another junior to get the approval of the IIs and personally I'm not impressed by it. My guess is management are recommending it because they already have their futures guaranteed. I cannot deny that by selling sub 10p you would be giving them away cheaper than current value but it is clear from my above statement why they will trade at a discount. SLE share price is not fixed and you have no guarantees of getting 10.5p for each AUL share when it closes as SLE can still fall. I would expect this discount to reduce as the merger date gets closer. This is added risk whether you like it or not. Buying SLE is daft though, because if you want to buy into SLE today with a view to holding long term (and you believe the deal will go ahead) you may as well buy AUL and take advantage of thee discount. IMO you are wrong for condemning people who want or need to sell, however those thinking of owning a combined company long term should be buying AUL and not SLE while this discount is this wide (IMO). |
Posted at 12/11/2012 16:51 by johncraven Still SLE should be worth far more. Look at their assets! SLE is one of the most undervalued companies on AIM in comparison. Both companies are merging to realise much more value as a partnership not to mention all the opertunities as partners. The purpose of the merger is to bring value, have you read the rns? Closing prices AUL = 10.25 SLE = 8.36 Based on example 100,000 shares: 100,000 AUL X 10.25P = £10,250 130,000 SLE X 8.36P = £10,868 To get a valuation of £10,250 for the SLE holding on 130,000 shares the price would have to be 7.88p. SO 7.88P is equal to 10.25p Aurelian so SELLING AUL at 10.25p is like selling SLE at 7.88P!!!! |
Posted at 12/11/2012 09:01 by greenroom78 No JC 1.3 SLE share per AUL share is the merger price.Therefore if SLE are down 15% you'll get 15% less in cash terms for your AUL. If the deal goes ahead your AUL shares are worth 1.3x the SLE price. |
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