Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[irenekent] 25/11/2015 14:10

Budget announcements seem to favour ASH. Extra money for social care and NHS.

[topvest] 16/11/2015 10:20

Think I have understood the accounts issues now:

- Gross loss last year is due to the fact that they have been working on some internal schemes, so can't book any profits on this work.

- The borrowings have been used to fund the work in progress and land payments. Should be some chunky gross margins on this when it gets sold, at which point the high cost borrowings will be repaid.

- New schemes will be developed using the funding of their new partner (so off balance sheet).

I've doubled my small holding. Very risky but there are some positive signs coming through. The share option scheme is likely to signal the bottom in my view and the development portfolio is now looking very promising.

[cottoner] 15/11/2015 17:31

topvest - thanks for info.

For future ref - change http to HTTp for example to enable direct link to be posted.

[topvest] 15/11/2015 16:53

Two observations on looking at this again.

This looks good news for next year:
hxxp://www.ashleyhouseplc.com/files/9814/4741/8142/Scalby_Road_Press_Release__131115_final.pdf

Anyone know what the terms are of the £2m Rockpool loan
It looks to me like it's incurred c£750k of interest in 2014/15. It must be at 30-40% interest. Ouch...particularly when they have taken another related company loan facility as well. Am I missing something?

They should be disclosing the terms of these loans in their accounts given that is a disclosure requirement...poor...given this is highly material to the financial statements! Why haven't the auditors insisted this is disclosed?

[justanothergoodinvestor] 12/11/2015 13:40

just hobbling along under the radar whilst we await the newsflow concerning increased revenue.

[russman] 05/11/2015 07:53

How many years do these share options last for?

[topvest] 04/11/2015 20:45

Yes, think this is a positive sign. They have obviously picked the right moment to grant these. Think management deserve a go at achieving it. Still pondering whether to double up or not.

[oregano] 04/11/2015 15:47

the more you consider these options, the more bullish it is.

these schemes are a process of negotiation, with triggers that are too often close to current share prices - really a reward for continued service rather than performance. This is the opposite. All or nothing on quadrupling the share price.

Management would not have accepted this if they did not have confidence in exercising the options. there is a good overlap between the larger shareholders and the BoD also.

Don't forget that management cleared out the market below 4p.

this is going to be a blockbuster next year.

[love it] 04/11/2015 14:47

Too cheap at 9.5p and even more so after these options in todays news.

[goliard] 04/11/2015 12:11

Let's just hope that a share consolidation doesn't count as meeting their target!

[scburbs] 04/11/2015 10:59

A reasonable target, albeit if pipeline starts to move then getting to 37p may not be that hard.

I look forward to them announcing that FAH are actually funding Harwich, Walton and the third scheme to commence before year end. Once(/if) we see the funding, rather than funding subject to contract due diligence etc. then confidence (and the share price) should start to increase strongly.

[norbert colon] 04/11/2015 09:15

Yes a very bullish signal and gives shareholders a signal that mgt expect strong performance going forward,

[oregano] 04/11/2015 09:10

i will be delighted for them to receive 10% of the company if they can get the shares to 37p. we are clearly in the same boat, shareholders and management. perfect.

[knicol46] 04/11/2015 08:57

Options @ 37p gives confidence

[russman] 02/11/2015 07:12

I am still not happy with their financial structure.
These schemes take a long time to complete & will suck in working capital.
I suppose they could sell the rest of the skeletons to the vultures.

[goliard] 01/11/2015 17:01

Topvest, I believe their margins are more like 10%, but it is hard to know with the new scheme types.

[topvest] 01/11/2015 15:14

Some questions / comments after looking at this more closely:
- Why did they make a small gross loss last year. As all admin expenses go below this it implies that they had a loss making contract.
- Looks like the Harwich scheme is on site and so will now be generating material revenue given its a significant scheme (i.e. over £10m).
- Can't seem to see anything about what the Walton scheme is. Anyone have the details?
- On-site schemes are £17.5m versus £5.2m a year or so back, so that appears to be encouraging in terms of getting to £20m+ turnover in the current year.
- John Moy buying another 500,000 has to be seen as a fairly bullish signal.
They will need to make a profit this year, I believe, otherwise their balance sheet position will become untenable. Therefore, as far as I can see it's all about how much revenue is reasonably secure for this year and achieving 20-30% margins on this work.

[russman] 31/10/2015 08:21

No Good News but then no Bad news.
My personal opinion is that a small AGM statement on current outlook always goes down a treat with shareholders.

[oregano] 30/10/2015 12:15

does anyone know who the nominee buyer is?

[knicol46] 30/10/2015 12:14

Bid and offer increased, AGM started, RNS expected later today

[love it] 30/10/2015 09:09

Some AGM news would be nice.

[russman] 30/10/2015 00:46

Anyone going to the AGM today?
What happened to the LIFT sales.

[oregano] 08/10/2015 09:24

WH Ireland have an EPS of 1.9p this year (which we are almost half the way through), a PE of 5.2x.

[topvest] 07/10/2015 21:11

I need to study this further. There certainly are green shoots. The directors are putting their money in with loans. The auditors did NOT feel the need to include an emphasis of matter on going concern in the audit report. Share price chart seems to have turned. On balance, I would say recovery is looking more likely than it going under now. As I said, not had a chance to study in detail yet.

[oregano] 07/10/2015 17:34

he is hardly going to be ponying up another £50k if things are going badly.

those numbers were the nadir in terms of newsflow. All good from here.