Arcon Int. Share Discussion Threads

[hypocrite] 20/2/2005 08:22

I did'nt know there were plc's among them.....who are they?

[chessfou] 19/2/2005 20:36

as you know, me being the only other regular poster apart from yourself, i bought in jan 04 at 3.8p (38p) and doubled up at 2.5p (25p) in july last year. [rambutan2]

Harumph! Just 'cos I don't post every ten minutes. I bought in in Dec '03 (3.2p) and doubled (same month) @ 3.7p (both "old" money. Last autumn (Aug-Oct) I then quadrupled (ca. 27p - "new" money).

I was also attracted by (among others) Hugh Hendry's comments @ Odey Continental European (although I note that he now - 31 Jan - says: Our
bets have moved away from the miners into the smelters).

[049balt] 19/2/2005 18:20

Getting some good coverage in todays Irish papers.

[rambutan2] 19/2/2005 17:57

given a favourable climate it possesses the attributes of an option ie multibagger possibilities.

[opthalmist] 19/2/2005 17:48

What does "optionality" mean?

[rambutan2] 19/2/2005 17:43

a reminder: hugh hendry from sept 03...

Stock Insight:
The bear market in Zinc is now in its fifteenth year. Prices are at 70-year lows in today's money. Half the world's production is losing money. The miners are finally responding: consolidation has begun; marginal capacity is being shut down; excessively high LME inventories are being worked off. Consider Arcon: years of low prices and weak management have been robbing Tony O'Reilly of his fortune. So why is he still involved? Zinc is presently priced at 35c/lb; the range in real terms since 1950 reads 34c to 195c. At current prices the Galmoy mine can muddle through; at 50c, Arcon is on 5 times earnings, at 100c it's pure optionality.

[rambutan2] 19/2/2005 17:10

hypo im not a fan of needless hype.
but as you know, me being the only other regular poster apart from yourself, i bought in jan 04 at 3.8p (38p) and doubled up at 2.5p (25p) in july last year.
and never any intention of adding more.
but im sure you werent referring to me!

[hypocrite] 19/2/2005 16:51

I suspect some motives here as being miffed that the price rose
as it did before they made their decision!!!
Tough!!!

[rambutan2] 19/2/2005 16:39

yes, this certainly has "optionality" on chinese consumption.

[britishbear] 19/2/2005 16:37

It is true that the EURO price is still well below the E1100 value in the 2003 report - however, AIN's per unit costs have fallen considerably with the new "R" find.

Also good to see how far world stocks have fallen and also what zinc is used for - lots of things that China will be producing and consuming :-)

[049balt] 19/2/2005 15:35

The 16.5 million is conservative but is pretax, however company tax in Ireland is 12%, still the shares are very cheap.

[rambutan2] 19/2/2005 15:27

my point exactly!

[049balt] 19/2/2005 15:17

Zinc is trading at 1345 Dollars/Tonne and not Euros, there is quite a difference.

[spacewagon] 19/2/2005 14:38

Extract from the December 2003 Research Report by Loeb Aron & Co. Ltd. on Arcon's website



"...current market capitalisation is discounting future zinc prices rising to about €1100 / tonne by 2007. At this price in a few years time, by no means an unlikely scenario, ARCON could conceivably be throwing off in excess of €20 m per annum in profits.

ARCON represents a geared play on zinc with significant upside should future zinc price expectations rise above €1100 / tonne or if mine life is further extended by exploration success."

This best case scenario has already been exceeded. The price has risen to $1300 and mine life has increased. Today's share price is the same as at the end of December 2003.

That makes €16.5 m look conservative.

[hypocrite] 19/2/2005 13:19

Will do......

Should also put the url's for the three analysts that last covered
the company.....2 and 3 years ago!!!!!!!!

If anyone is doubtful how much money we can make on the recovery
of this share price.....suffice it to say....the price now is the
same as it was then.....

Dont take my word for it.....check it out!!!!

[britishbear] 19/2/2005 10:35

tinpot - the company website is excellent and has presentations and detailed information about the mine and its expansion and life.



Hypo - stick this address in the header - should help.

[jungle jim] 19/2/2005 07:53

Thanks robinbell.

[tinpotdik] 19/2/2005 00:28

Unbelievable. I've just read all the posts on this thread. I wonder why i did it. No, i do know why - because i hoped i would understand the mine itself a bit better. You know - the asset. Got a lot on the zinc price though. I dont know, maybe getting the stuff out is irrelevant. I will admit i dont know this company well but i do know that one should have an eye out for factors that can increase operating costs which can have a big bearing on forecast profits. Lets see some up-to-date short and long term production and cost forecasts at various Zn prices. And why does nobody know them? A mine is a living thing - it changes -
I wish arcon well

[spacewagon] 18/2/2005 19:04

It's all a question of timing. I bought my shares in AIN 4 weeks ago after Numis gave it a buy rating on the zinc price. I was just thinking last night that it had done quite well in a short time. Now with today's leap it is already my best '% rise per day held' ever. I think the market is quite frothy at present (White Nile, D1 Oil etc) and there is every chance of people latching on and taking us for a fine ride. cav. emp.

[hypocrite] 18/2/2005 16:51

Arcon (AIN ID)......
Previous close: 47c
Zinc at seven year high

[e-mail]
18th February 2005

• The very strong half-year results of Zinefex, the large Australian zinc miner, formerly known as Pasminco, show how the
world has changed for zinc producers.
• Zinc prices are trading at over $1,300 per tonne, a seven year peak. This is very good news for Arcon, especially as, so far
at least, the dollar has not traded as badly against the euro as was earlier expected.
• If Arcon achieves the targeted production levels in 2005 and zinc stays at current levels, 2005 will be a bumper year for the
Irish zinc miner. We are forecasting PBT of €16.5m, a figure that should be comfortably exceeded if zinc prices stay at current
levels.

[hypocrite] 18/2/2005 16:42

How old are you?