||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|debbie_does_dallas_twice: feel free to remind him of the share price since his sell rec on Thursday,,, LOL
|scrutable: what on earth is happening? There must be a dreadful shortage of stock. I have never seen such a high percentage of share price recovery for such a small amount of buying|
|wiseacre: There must surely be a debt for equity swap to satisfy the bankers. The short squeeze and eye watering rise in share price must be a terrific opportunity for renewed short attack.|
|shakyhands: The share price has shot up due to a short squeeze.The news does not justify it.|
|younasm: Yeah - you have to wait next year to get some decisions and updates out of the way.In the meantime, the share price could be 10p to 100p range.|
|m.t.glass: DM - I totally agree. But as a company that knows that, properly costed exit plans ought to be part of how they price their tenders. If that isn't feasible, they need to declare a contingency sum upfront for escapes - and only spend that at the end of any year in which not needed. I don't imagine the risks they take are insurable at an affordable premium.
If they don't have one of those alternatives in place, then they are not a properly funded company. And awareness of that will influence the share price accordingly.|
|m.t.glass: FT joins the negative reportage:
Covenants possibly breached, profits definitely lower, chief operations officer on the way out for "personal reasons". A busy morning for APR, the supplier of temporary generators.
APR energy has said it may be unable to meet the financial covenants dictated by its banking facility, as it announces a profit warning amidst crippling delays in revenue, writes Joel Lewin.
The FTSE 250 company said customers have pushed back decisions about deals in the pipeline, and consequently delays in revenue threaten its ability to meet its covenants.
there is a realistic possibility that the anticipated delay in revenue may result in an inability of the Company to meet the financial covenant calculations under its banking facility on future quarter-end testing dates
It added that it:
will engage with its lenders at an appropriate time if the Company determines that seeking a modification of its financial covenants is advisable
The warning over the potential breach of covenants comes as the company issues a profit warning as a tough year takes an even harder turn.
The company's share price has fallen 48 per cent during the last 12 months, hit particularly hard by the suspension of its Libyan operations which caused it to tumble 17 per cent.
Once again it is Libya that is crimping profits - this time demobilisation costs have been higher than expected "despite the significant progress made to date in extracting the majority of assets".
In addition, the power generator renter has been knocked by unfavourable exchange rates, primarily in Indonesia and Australia.
APR said customers have pushed back decisions about deals in the pipeline until later in the year, leading to yet another dent in revenue.
The company said its chief operations officer, Brian Rich, "has decided to step down from his role for personal reasons".|
|younasm: APR share price looks healthy but we need to see the next 12 months results to work out if these are good value.
I am staying out until June, by which time more will known about Libya and full year results at the end of March might provide more info..|
|m.t.glass: Good luck to all who are buying in on the basis of APR's asset value and in anticipation of a sharp bounce on any good news from Libya. Libyan government ratification of APR's contract extension could prompt a very sudden spike upwards in its share price.
But latest news on the overall situation in Libya remains grim and understandably affects the share price of all listed companies operating there, deterring many investors:
In the event that the Libyan situation is not resolved in APR's favour, there must be doubts about how the company would ship its generators elsewhere - with so much disruption of ports and airports - and the risk of equipment being seized by fighters. About a fifth of APR's fleet is in Libya. The country is desparately short of electricity, and APR's equipment is something that various factions might relish control of.|
|philanderer: Not holding but on the watchlist...
Morgan Stanley downgrades this morning.
Potential Bull scenario: APR Energy's shares have already fallen
significantly suggesting trading concerns could be in the share price and
the current market value is supported by its a 2015e NAV of c. 500p per
share (unadjusted for any potential fleet loss in Libya). In addition, the
fluid situation in Libya is preventing any progress on the construction of
permanent power plants. This could lead to further contract extensions.
Potential Bear scenario: There have been multiple reasons for the fall in
share price (a number of downgrades, a change in depreciation policy,
deferring fleet payments, etc). In addition, there is increasing risk over its
contracts in Libya; management has indicated that it could look to exit
Libya, which could prove complicated (demobilising or selling the fleet
carries significant risk), and recent litigation over the contract adds further
uncertainty. Adjusting for its Libyan fleet implies a c. 400p NAV per share.
Downgrade to Equal-weight: Our 2014 revenue and EBITDA estimates
are c.40% and c.50% exposed to Libya. With no visibility on whether APR
Energy can extend these contracts in Q1 2015 and a lack of transparency
on the financial outcome in the event it chooses to exit, we see a wide
risk/reward range of outcomes. Our 525p PT (down from 600p) is
weighted 50% to our base case 600p, 25% to our bull case 700p and 25%
to our bear case 195p. The stock's risk profile no longer merits an OW
recommendation; downgrade to EW.
Exiting Libya could be difficult: APR recently indicated that, if the
situation did not improve in Libya, it would seek to demobilise or sell the
assets to GECOL. Either route carries significant risk; Libya could be
reluctant to see an exit of a significant proportion of grid capacity, and
APR's bargaining position in a sale could be weak. In addition, an exit or
end of the contract would lead to significantly lower 2015e EBITDA and
could raise investor concerns over potential proximity to its 3.25x
A return of stability could mean an end to the contract: A 640MW
permanent power plant in Southern Libya set for completion by end-2014
has been delayed by the unstable situation. If stability returns, and the
plant is completed, APR's contracts could potentially be terminated.
Apr Energy share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange