Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[lfdkmp] 05/1/2017 08:29

Yes - quite a race apart!

[skinwalker] 04/1/2017 19:38

why stop at a trillion? A quadrillion? share price would be surely stratospheric?

[ngms27] 04/1/2017 16:56

Over a TCF I'd think

[warbaby43] 04/1/2017 16:50

Thank you for the explanations.

Does all this boil down to the "proposed well location" of Likonde Updip/L-2 going by the wayside? If so, I would be surprised, given that L-1 was P&Ad and that not only was high pressured gas encountered there but oil shows as well. I also note that Likonde Updip featured as one of the "Four main drillable targets attributed 3TCF PMean GIIP" in the Senergy Report and that Likonde was ascribed 504BCF in the ISIS Report.

What I still also find puzzling is there is nary any time a mention from AEX of investigation of the Jurassic notwithstanding at L-1 "a deeper Jurassic zone, containing 250 metres of stacked sandstones with extensive oil and gas shows. The deeper sandstones were not logged at the time, as the well was prematurely terminated in the deepest objective at 3,647 metres due to the influx of high pressure gas." However, as I recall N-1 was deepened to 3,000m plus and found nowt as did Anardarko when they went down to the Jurassic at Tembo.

Incidentally, in the currency of the industry at Sterling $1.25, 10p would equate to an AEX perceived value of $437m. Now what would N-2 and more especially N-3 need to turn up to justify that price tag?

[blackgold00] 04/1/2017 15:59

according to bigdouble from you know where, he's had correspondence from NR
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Asked him about possible pay zones on the way down"

Answer

"Some small gas charged sand stringers may be encountered, but the main interest is at 2400 m or so. Well at intermediate casing point now at ~1300 m."
----------------------------------------------------------------------
that's going some isn't it ?

[blackgold00] 04/1/2017 15:53

that's what i like to see, a 1,000,000 trade at full ask

[greyingsurfer] 04/1/2017 15:41

I think 3p on NT-2 success, 10p plus on NT-3 success

Not often I find myself thinking ngms is too optimistic on AEX!

Now, if NT-3 is successful not just in hitting a large gas resource, but also (or instead) significant oil, which I don't really expect, then 10p might just about be feasible. Otherwise I'd think we'd have to wait a bit for reaching such vertiginous heights.

I'd suggest 2.5-3p on NT-2 and perhaps 4-5 on NT-3 successes. Then again perhaps 2.5 after both :(.

Peter

[ngms27] 04/1/2017 15:18

I think 3p on NT-2 success, 10p plus on NT-3 success

[last throw] 04/1/2017 15:09

Thanks ngms - pretty good percentages and, given where the price stands right now, I reckon we could see the shareprice move seriously north in fairly short order.

I know you hate guesstimates but I get the feeling that 5p is attainable on a reasonable NT-2 result and heaven knows what on a successful NT-3!

However, as I've often stated, I am here for the first post-apocalypse dividend and will not be trading as it scares the whatnots out of me at this late stage in both my life and Aminex's history.

Thanks again!

LT

[blackgold00] 04/1/2017 14:37

COS 85% and 50%, now that's the ngms that i like, good and positive :)

[ngms27] 04/1/2017 14:31

NT-2 is an updip appraisal of an existing discovery so the only ways it could fail are:
Drill problems
One of more faults between NT-1 and NT-2 that breach the seal at the NT-2 location
Seismic interpretation is incorrect
Sands are poorly developed / poor quality at this location

I'd think the COS on NT-2 must be 85%

NT-3 is different sand channels (To NT-1) so all kinds of potential issues so I'd think COS is < 50%

[last throw] 04/1/2017 14:21

ngms27

I defer to your better knowledge of seismic apropos Aminex and the oil/gas industry in general and wonder what your take is on how, what appears to be the subtle changes in drill-designation and targets might pan out on the upside, given the obvious downside possibility of a "duster" which I believe we all feel is highly unlikely.

Thanks in advance.

LT

[ngms27] 04/1/2017 14:10

If you look at slide 8 in the August 2016 presentation you can see how Likondes Southern sand channel is now mapped to overlap Ntorya.

Slide 13 in the April 2016 presentation show the NT-3 projected path to intersect 2 x Lower tertiary targets. This is Likonde in what I believe to be an updip location to Likonde-1 where the 97m net sands were drilled with Hydrocarbon shows.

[warbaby43] 04/1/2017 11:18

"I think what ngms is saying is that the NT-3 well is as much to do with the Likonde Lower Tertiary sands that overlap the Ntorya Cretaceous sands."

Yeah, I understand that Likonde link blackgold, with it being repeated a number of times that the secondary target for N-3 (and N-2) is the tertiary but that seems to me to be a long way from "Likonde-2 IS Ntorya-3."

So far as the seismic goes, I have confessed on here before that I do struggle with visual interpretation full stop, so I have to rely on what is written or said in video clips.

With regard to "It's no longer a separate structure in the latest seismic interpretation." I am not sure what ngms27 refers to here as I am unable to recollect any significant seismic re-interpretation being mentioned recently which might have changed things so significantly. All I can recall is the N-1 sidetrack being switched to a N-2 drill as part of the Norwell well planning.

As ever though, correction welcomed.

[blackgold00] 04/1/2017 10:39

I think what ngms is saying is that the NT-3 well is as much to do with the Likonde Lower Tertiary sands that overlap the Ntorya Cretaceous sands.

warbaby, i think they are still fine tuning the Likonde-2 exploration well location and no doubt the NT-3 well results well go some way in doing that.

[blackgold00] 04/1/2017 03:34

yes agree ngms a higher risk, but shouldn't we say its the same Cretaceous structure as in Ntorya but separated by a fault, also, as i understand it, N-2 became N-3, when N-1 was to be side-tracked and then it was decided, it would be best to drill a separate (step-out well) from N-1. effectively becoming the NT-2 well and turning the original NT-2 well into NT-3.

But what i'm not so sure about, is, they state from the update below, that the NT-3 well will have an additional target of the Lower Tertiary sands that were found in Likonde-1 but they make no mention of the "deeper Jurassic zone, containing 250 metres of stacked sandstones". So is it, that from the Likonde-1 well, the Jurassic zone does not follow the same course as the Tertiary zone?

11 September 2014

Aminex plc

Ruvuma OPERATIONAL UPDATE



"Aminex today announces that interpretation of the newly acquired seismic data has extended the potential of the Ntorya appraisal area,

"The new interpretation has shown that an additional target exists for an appraisal well that would intersect the Ntorya gas and condensate sands encountered in Ntorya-1 and an extension of the Lower Tertiary sands that were found to have oil and gas shows in the earlier Likonde-1 well to the north. This additional target has further increased the recently announced resource potential from 1.9 to 2.3 Tcf (Pmean GIIP).

"The Likonde-1 well penetrated 97 metres of net sand with an average porosity of 17% within a 316 metre gross Lower Tertiary sand sequence with hydrocarbon shows and a deeper Jurassic zone, containing 250 metres of stacked sandstones with extensive oil and gas shows. The deeper sandstones were not logged at the time, as the well was prematurely terminated in the deepest objective at 3,647 metres due to the influx of high pressure gas.

"The new seismic interpretation, using the recently acquired higher quality 2D seismic data, shows that the Likonde prospect comprises two distinct channel sands of which the southern channel extends over the mapped Ntorya Cretaceous gas sand. Ntorya-1, drilled in 2012, did not encounter this Likonde Tertiary sand channel, which lies just north of the well, but discovered a deeper Cretaceous gas sand that tested 20MMcfd with 139 barrels of associated condensate.

[blackgold00] 03/1/2017 17:28

ngms, yes agree, if N-2 turns out as they are hoping for, then N-3 is going to rock.

[ngms27] 03/1/2017 17:13

Likonde-2 IS Ntorya-3. It's no longer a separate structure in the latest seismic interpretation.

That's also why the 2014 NT-2 became NT-3

[blackgold00] 03/1/2017 16:28

yes all exciting stuff warbaby.

This was the first update after spudding the N-1 well and i think should point out the next RNS and be helpful in indicating the timescale of the N-2 well.

NTORYA-1 DRILLING UPDATE

10th January 2012



"Aminex PLC ('Aminex' or the 'Company') today announces an update on drilling of the Ntorya-1 exploration well in the Ruvuma Basin onshore in Tanzania.

"The well was spudded on the 22 December 2011 and after subsequent drilling, casing was set at 125 metres and again at 548 metres. Following successful installation of the top drive to the rig the well is now drilling ahead at a depth of 620 metres. The target interval of the well is approximately 1,800 to 1,900 metres depth. Ntorya-1 is expected to reach total depth in late January 2012.

"The Ntorya-1 well is designed to test the high quality Basal Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous sands previously encountered in the Likonde-1 well, 14 kilometres to the north. Aminex estimates that the Ntorya Prospect has a probability of success of around 20%, with mean recoverable resource potential of 100 million barrels of oil equivalent."

[warbaby43] 03/1/2017 15:33

Just to get a handle on drilling timescale, a look back to the N-1 drill starting with this this 7th Feb 2012 RNS

"The well was spudded on the 22 December 2011 and is now at a depth of 2500 metres. The targeted sandstone intervals were not encountered at the prognosed depths between 1,800 and 1,900 metres. Further drilling found sandstone intervals along with traces of gas below 2,300 metres. Wireline logs and check shot data will now be recorded to determine whether or not to drill further."

Followed on 10th Feb with:

"On the 7 February 2012 it was announced that the drilling had been temporarily suspended at a depth of 2,500 metres pending further evaluation. Intermediate logging and check shot data have been evaluated and it has been decided to continue drilling. An additional target has been identified on the seismic data at a depth of approximately 2,750 metres and the well will now be deepened to test that objective.

Drilling operations have restarted and it is expected that the new target will be reached within a week.

Tullow Tanzania B.V. has elected not to participate in the well deepening activities which will be undertaken by Ndovu Resources Limited (Aminex) and Solo Oil. Aminex and Solo Oil will be responsible for the cost of deepening the well in proportion of their respective interests.

The Ntorya-1 well is designed to test the high quality Basal Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous sands previously encountered in the Likonde-1 well, 14 kilometres to the north."

Then on 15th Feb:

"On the 10 February 2012 it was announced that the well would be deepened to test an additional target identified on the seismic data at a depth of approximately 2,750 metres. The well has now been drilled to 2,750 metres, and prior to reaching that depth encountered strong gas shows in a good quality reservoir sand at a depth of approximately 2,660 metres. A logging programme will commence shortly to evaluate the new section drilled below 2,500 metres and a further update will be provided after the logging programme has been completed."

With the discovery then announced on 27th Feb:

"Further to the Company's update on 15 February 2012, which reported strong gas shows in a good quality Cretaceous reservoir sand at a depth of 2,660 metres, the open hole has now been logged from total depth of 2,750 metres across the zone of interest. Electric logs show a gross sand interval of 25 metres between 2,660 metres and 2,685 metres with a 3 metre net gas bearing pay zone in sandstones with 20% porosity at the top and a 16.5 metre thick lower sandstone interval with further possible gas pay. Proving the presence of reservoired hydrocarbons in Cretaceous sands in Ntorya-1 opens up the potential for additional plays in thick Mesozoic sands encountered by Aminex and partners in the Likonde-1 well just 14 kilometres north of the Ntorya-1 well.

A 7 inch liner will now be run to total depth and the well will then be deepened by a further 250 metres to investigate a prominent seismic event at approximately 3,000 metres. Having previously logged oil shows in the Likonde-1 well drilled in 2010, drilling to deeper targets offers the possibility of finding liquid hydrocarbons."

Reading back through those also provided a reminder that any success at N-2 will not only provide encouragement for N-3 but equally as much, if not more, support for Likonde-2, with the 2013/14 seismic also surveying that in detail.

[skinwalker] 03/1/2017 11:56

Now you're really sounding like TipTop Bun.