Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[greyingsurfer] 06/7/2016 13:07

Actually Peter, on reflection I take your point. I got it wrong. Apologies Peter and Dice.

No problem, Kev

[jacks13] 06/7/2016 11:30

I've been considering getting back in of late and yesterday I watched one of his interviews and when he mentioned the word 'imminently' I immediately put my plan on hold. The situation and the language used is so opaque. Not unusual I know in investing. I can't fathom whether Aminex are about to rerate upwards or downwards. So I'll wait a bit longer. Good luck to all you stoic holders.

[edgar222] 06/7/2016 10:47

Some really excellent Jay interviews recently.I particularly like the one (was it proactive?) where he is asked what happens after testing / ramp up of KN1 and he says we seamlessly go into production.He also uses the word "imminently" about Ruvuma drilling. On the basis that I trust the man, he has a plan but cant spell it out yet.My money is on a farmout. And it being BLVN.

[kevjones2] 06/7/2016 09:55

Actually Peter, on reflection I take your point. I got it wrong. Apologies Peter and Dice. I dont think Dice was being mischievous.

[blackgold00] 06/7/2016 09:21

i don't think so.

[ngms27] 06/7/2016 09:19

Unfortunately ORCA still have them by the short and curlies though

[blackgold00] 06/7/2016 09:15

some thing ngms are just to commercially and politically sensitive and can't be made public, the thing that's been going on here, is that Tanzania/TPDC/TANSCO have needed to brake the monopoly that Songas and Orca (up until now) have held over the power sector and the country, and it is for that reason the new Songo Songo plant was built, i.e they could not come to an agreement with Songas to expand the old gas plant, so TPDC now have their own gas plants and distribution network and have taken back control of the energy needs.

[ngms27] 06/7/2016 08:48

blackgold you may indeed be correct but with AEX we only seem to be given part of the picture by the BOD, the one they want us to hear. Why didn't they state the 23mmscpd hurdle rate years ago rather than suggest KN-1 could produce at 30mmscfpd and then hope it could?

[kevjones2] 06/7/2016 08:41

EDIT: Please see later post this morning.
= ============= ========================
Peter, Dice left out the word equivalent after JB said "equates to 5000 ..." in order to make it sound like Aex is bAexproducing 5000 bopd. It isnt. What it's producing "equates to 5000 bopd equivalent".

Stop being deliberately obtuse. You're only highlighting how desperate and insecure Aex investors are.

Getting kinda pathetic here.

[blackgold00] 06/7/2016 08:37

ngms, "where's the demand for that figure without cutting out another supplier"

the important thing here ngms is that Orca does not supply TPDC they sale direct to tanesco, the TPDC is the state owned gas company that has the mandate to be the main supplier of gas to the power industrial and domestic sectors. so like i keep saying Tanesco which also is state owned, might be duty bound to switch supplier and to receive the gas from TPDC instead of Orca.

[lfdkmp] 06/7/2016 08:34

Operate the plant at 30mmscfpd for a month, switch off for 11 months and we get 2.5mmscfpd

Eh?

[ngms27] 06/7/2016 08:28

That depends.

Operate the plant at 30mmscfpd for a month, switch off for 2 months and we get 10mmscfpd

[blackgold00] 06/7/2016 08:21

well it seems to me, that if the plant needs 23mmcfd to operate then the take can not drop below that figure, what ever the (take or pay) is agreed at.

[ngms27] 06/7/2016 07:40

Another thing that needs to be considered around KN-1's gas destination is surety of supply. KN-1 is a single well so whoever ultimately buys the gas will likely require some kind of backup guarantee which is why personally I think the take or pay won't be above 10mmscfpd

[ngms27] 06/7/2016 07:34

From what I recall the take or pay figure was going to be set AFTER the commissioning and testing phase and then reviewed every 12 months.

What's clear is that KN-1 can only perhaps supply gas for 12-18 months at the required 23mmscfpd plus where's the demand for that figure without cutting out another supplier?

[warbaby43] 05/7/2016 20:20

Yup,blackgold, supplanting that part of the Orca supply has long been the best hope. However, that scenario does cut across the heavy implication in Ritson's recent audio piece that industrial/business users were the destination for KN-1 gas.

That then takes us back to those projected demand estimates in el_dorado's post at 55945 which are from this year 12,15,17,20 and 20 through to 2020.

Speaking of which, can you help us here el_dorado - since you put up those estimates which, while looking entirely realistic to me, have been the subject to some doubt on here as to their validity. Can you help therefore by indicating the source

[oilretire] 05/7/2016 15:58

I don't suppose starting and stopping a gas plant every day is either possible or economically viable.

Nor is it good for plant integrity or longevity of service..........

The plant will get 23 mmscf/d (form AEX or elsewhere).

Would still like to know the take or pay thresh hold, but I guess that'll be commercially sensitive.

[blackgold00] 05/7/2016 15:51

that doesn't sound very efficient or economical to me, there is running costs to be coincided with staff lying idle for days, ngms if that is the case then TPDC wouldn't had commissioned it when they did. i think TPDC will be running the new plant with at lest the min amount of gas needed 23 mmscfd and that gas will be sold to Tanesco and will ultimately replace the gas Tanesco currently receives from Orca under the Portfolio Gas Supply Agreement (“PGSA”), which coincidentally is about 30-35 mmscfd.

page 10 Orca's FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS risks



" risk that additional gas volumes available to the National Natural Gas Infrastructure Project NNGIP from third parties will replace all or a portion of the volumes currently nominated by TANESCO under the Portfolio Gas Sales Agreement (“PGSA”) until additional gas-fired power generation is brought on-stream to consume all of the Company’s available gas production"

[greyingsurfer] 05/7/2016 15:47

It's not inconceivable that African Intelligence were correct and only 10mmscfpd is currently maximum demand for KN-1 Gas. That being the case the plant may operate one day in three, 8 hours per day or one week in three for example.

Not very plausible, ngms. I don't suppose starting and stopping a gas plant every day is either possible or economically viable. And even if 0ne week in 3 was viable I can't see that an erratic gas supply like that would be any use. They will take at least 23mmscfd, unless KN-1 can't supply it, which currently seems unlikely.

[greyingsurfer] 05/7/2016 15:44

"The barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) is a unit of energy based on the approximate energy released by burning one barrel (42 U.S. gallons or 158.9873 litres) of crude oil."

I suspect we all know that, including the authors of the original quote you objected to which used "equates" instead of "equivalent".

[twelvefinches] 05/7/2016 15:38

And finally gets a decent mention in todays TIMES business section, encouraged me to purchase some more.

[ngms27] 05/7/2016 14:36

It's not inconceivable that African Intelligence were correct and only 10mmscfpd is currently maximum demand for KN-1 Gas. That being the case the plant may operate one day in three, 8 hours per day or one week in three for example.

[blackgold00] 05/7/2016 14:27

ngms, the new SS processing plant needs 23 mmscfd to operate, so production from KN of 23 mmscfd and above is needed. unless you think ngms that after commissioning of the plant TPDC will shut it down, which makes no sense at all. remember the TPDC who is buying Aminex's gas and supplying the market power/industrial/domestic, is in competition with Orca to sale gas.

[ngms27] 05/7/2016 13:46

Yes WTF will Aminex supply?