Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[warbaby43] 30/4/2015 18:13

Bunbooster2 @ 52295, I take your points especially regarding the centrality of Ntorya and Kiliwani production. However, where I think what happens offshore is important for AEX relates to the impact on the value of Nyuni given that they indicated a year ago that they were seeking partners "to focus on onshore development areas."

The other importance of offshore development is to produce much needed dollar revenue for Tanzania. There is plenty of latent hostility to and suspicion of the Western oil companies in Tanzania and if the expected monetisation of their offshore gas either evaporates or disappears into a really distant future, attitudes are likely to toughen considerably to onshore operators too.

With regard to Shell, yup I'm aware of not only the BG deal but that Shell have four Shell only Zanzibar blocks 9,10, 11 and 12 as well as a fifth, 8, alongside Petrobras. Additionally, when raising my question relating to GTL economics, at the back of my mind was that SASOL and especially Shell are the two companies most associated with GTL.

[vike1] 30/4/2015 17:45

Bounty Oil update on Nyuni on ASX. At least they still sound confident GSA is a go.

[blackgold00] 30/4/2015 11:46

WRL has not got their (payment protection terms) in place/agreed yet and of course Orca are, as of their last announcement, still at odds with TPDC to supply gas (at an agreed price) into the NEW gas facilities. so its not all about Aminex

from aex final results

"A Gas Sales Agreement has been negotiated and is passing through government approval stages. The agreement is part of a larger commercial transaction with neighbouring producers who will use the same facilities."

"Negotiations on a Gas Sales Agreement ('GSA') remain subject to continuing delays as the draft agreement passes through various Tanzanian governmental reviews but Aminex expects the GSA to be completed and signed in the near future, with satisfactory payment protection terms in place and prior to first production from the Kiliwani North field."

[last throw] 30/4/2015 09:18

ngms

For what it's worth - I agree with you as it's the only intelligent reason for a situation that now makes our Board look very silly/gullible for announcing its "imminence" over a year ago.

LT

[ngms27] 30/4/2015 09:00

I'm sure they have been offered a GSA, but what are the terms?
My view is $3 per MCF is fantasy but would like to be proved wrong

[skinwalker] 30/4/2015 08:50

Well I did warn you the GSA is merely a figment of someone's dope-fuelled fantasy. Personally I suspect the nodding donkey...

[bunbooster2] 29/4/2015 23:51

Oh.my.god.

Last time Neil Ritson spoke about patience was the Ruvuma farmout. This is bad lads. Very bad.

Looks like GSA has fallen through completely.

Gutted.

[vike1] 29/4/2015 21:53

Neil Ritson on Proactive Investors interview today. Focus was elsewhere, though when asked about 'lessons from Tanzania' all he said was these things require patience. Lots and lots of patience.

If something big is brewing in the background, he didn't let on that it was imminent.

[bunbooster2] 29/4/2015 21:29

warbaby - Shell have just bet heavily on East African LNG and you can see Ophir rising a lot since that deal. The offshore stuff is tangential though. For Aminex it's about making money delivering gas onshore. It looks like we'll shortly see a contract for that then 10+ million dollars annual revenue for 5-7 years from KN-1, then substantially more from Ntorya.

They're going to be bringing in the current market cap as annual revenue pretty soon and will be an integral part of onshore Tanzanian gas supply for a long time.

[ngms27] 29/4/2015 17:06

They aren't going to are they...

Just think about it for a minute.

[warbaby43] 29/4/2015 17:00

Four months ago today (29/12/14) this formed part of Wentworth's Tembo RNS:

"Petrophysical analysis of the Cretaceous section indicates 11 meters of natural gas net pay. Natural gas and some condensate was recovered by modular formation dynamics testing ("MDT") confirming the petrophysical analysis. The Onshore Rovuma Partners do not plan any further evaluation of the Tembo well at this time but will assess all the data recovered from this well to determine the potential commerciality of this discovery."

I cannot recall seeing Wentworth report any result of the assessment of the well data and any conclusion as to potential commerciality.

Can anyone point me in the right direction, please

[mycr0ft] 29/4/2015 13:26

"Tanzania to restrict foreign workers through new law"

Interesting article:



"On 18 March, the Tanzanian parliament introduced the Non-Citizens Employment Regulation Bill which, according to labour and employment minister Gaudentia Kabaka, will come into effect on 1 July, 2015.

“The new regulations reflect a wider trend towards increasingly stringent local content requirements in Tanzania, and will raise questions over the attractiveness of the country as a destination for foreign direct investment,”

[warbaby43] 29/4/2015 12:24

While Tanzanian LNG might have a significant shipping cost advantage over US gas into Asia, that doesn't apply with also surging Australian gas. Tanzanian gas also suffers the great disadvantage that it is just that - gas deep offshore of Tanzania, 125th in the WEF league table of countries with which to do business.

Small wonder, therefore, that there is so little impetus behind Tanzanian LNG which appears to be getting pushed ever further into the future compounding Tanzania's currency and economic problems of small dollar denominated exports swamped by large dollar denominated imports, not least of petroleum product.

Does anyone know, therefore, anything of the economics of gas-to-liquids - to be viable would the feedstock gas need to be at onshore, or at least near shore, cost and would the production cost of offshore gas preclude it from economic GTL?

[flyingbull] 29/4/2015 11:49

The May oil stock challenge is on. Time for shopping! ;-) :-)

Good luck!!!
fb

[hawks11] 29/4/2015 07:35

I anticipate more damage from the bumps on the bottom of the ride rather than hitting my head from too fast a rise! Even good news will be tempered with the amount of gas being generated in the USA now and in the future.

[foolsandcows] 28/4/2015 21:25

Hope everyone is strapped in for the ride?

[warbaby43] 28/4/2015 15:42

And our (hopefully) dollar denominated GSA has still to be concluded:

[foolsandcows] 28/4/2015 11:04

lol. I like a time like this..sorts the wheat from the chaff!

DO or DIE

Bring it on..

Good luck ;)

[ngms27] 28/4/2015 09:21

I was being optimistic!

[skinwalker] 28/4/2015 09:12

as long as that?

[ngms27] 28/4/2015 08:03

Nearly there boys, could be in administration within 3 months.

[foolsandcows] 27/4/2015 20:19

One month until The 12th Africa Independents Forum. hxxp://www.globalpacificpartners.com/events/?fa=overview&;id=933

I wonder what will happen in that time!

[foolsandcows] 27/4/2015 19:38

Nearly there boys..4p soon

;)

[blackgold00] 27/4/2015 07:48

they sure know how to drill wells over there.

(US to launch blitz of gas exports, eyes global energy dominance)



The US Energy Department prepares a wave of LNG gas permits in the latest move to redraw the world's oil and gas landscape

"The mile-deep Marcellus basin stretching from West Virginia through Pennsylvania to New York state is driving the explosive growth. Interlocking fractures in the rock make it possible for a single well with advanced technology to extract much more gas than thought possible just five years ago.

"Once thought to be in decline, the Marcellus alone produces 113 BCM a year. This is roughly equivalent to Russia's exports to Europe through the Nord Stream, Yamal, and Brotherhood pipelines.

"Mr Mueller defiantly sweeps aside those who claim that the US fracking industry is in serious trouble, insisting that drilling costs are coming down so fast that his company - and others - are staying a step ahead of falling prices.

"Rig efficiency was flat for thirty years but since then we've cut by five times. We have set in motion something that you can't deny and is irresistible," he said.


"Mr Mueller said it had taken his company 17 days to drill a 2,600 ft well as recently as 2007. It has just drilled a 5,400 ft well in six days. "The new technology is amazing. We have a drill-bit with a chip inside that makes its own changes," he said.

[vike1] 24/4/2015 16:37

I don't notice anything different on the website. Something specific you've spotted?