Amberley Grp. Share Discussion Threads

[ianreid] 20/9/2003 13:08

Mark,

You are absolutely right - the market will set the price.
As I said earlier, good luck to those who just buy on momentum - or large drops - but they are short term traders, I'm confident that this will turn back to sensible levels soon.

Good luck with your investment philosophy, I've known people make a million by momentum trading ... I don't mind it if it's backed by research ... but blind momentum trading is just not for me!

Cheers,
Ian

[mark sloane] 20/9/2003 09:51

at the end of the day guys no matter how much research you do you cant hope to be right about the price of a stock-calling people idiots for jumping in on something thats moving north sounds like sour grapes to me cos u aint got the balls to do it yourselves!!
good luck all u idiots like me who bought in at 6p when 65% was wiped off at the beginning of the week

[dell314] 20/9/2003 00:28

Ian,
Many thanks for the information.
I have heard good reviews of share price Angel previously, so will give them consideration when I get around to overhauling my trading activities.
Thanks again,

Regards,
dell

[ianreid] 20/9/2003 00:11

dell,

I use Darron/Joe at share price Angel 0207 0152 254 ... but they won't be able to short for you until you have a track record and/or some collateral with them! They hold most of my portfolio so no problems.

I've just had the market on to me offering at 8.125 but I'm resisting until 8.5 in case things get really silly.

Stew,

I wouldn't short TRK - I'm long, also in TDM (now a 3-bagger) - these shares are driven by hope in the technology. Don't short anything with 'hope' in these markets! BUT this is different, there is no hope, there is no business, this is absolutely irrational - hence my confidence. Of course, pride comes before a fall! Fortunately with my broker I've gone on a long T+ and can roll them if need be, so I can be patient!

Good luck both.

[double6] 19/9/2003 13:20

another winner !!

[dell314] 19/9/2003 09:50

Stew,

I can't make any sense of the valuations you mentioned either.
I'm just hoping we don't have another bubble, as I like good old fashioned discounts to NTAV. Can't get my head around all this "jam tomorrow" prediction stuff....

Rgds
dell

[stewjames] 19/9/2003 09:42

As the saying goes, dell, they can remain idiots a lot longer than you can remain solvent. Torotrak, for example. Overvalued at 40p (something like 50M market cap) It's doubled since. Or Yoomedia. Or Lastminute. Or Arm (great company, stupid price). And I'm sure countless other examples.

[dell314] 19/9/2003 09:33

Ian - which broker do you use to short small caps?
With this many idiots around lately, it looks like easy money!
Rgds
dell

[ianreid] 19/9/2003 09:28

Yes, the facts are that this is now well above NAV and there is NO business to get excited about. The absolute max this share will return is, by my calcs 6.1p and I suspect it will be lower due to closure costs, ongoing costs etc.

I can only think that this is being driven by:
1. Momentum investors
2. Misguided investors who thing by buying up to the register date will get the divi - they won't.

For me to short a share, you can be sure I am confident that this is now silly territory - I shorted a furth 50k @ 8p this morning. And I will continue to do so if the price rised - next batch will be at 8.5p if it get's there.

If this hasn't fallen back by the end of next week I'll be surprised. Maybe even by Monday once the issue of the divi is out of the way leaving only the momentum investors.

Don't worry about missing the peak (or the trough) - people generally only make those by sheer luck - just do what feels right and take your profits and move on.

Good luck to all.

[gumberr] 19/9/2003 09:22

what matters is what the market thinks - that's what drives the price! Anyway I am off to the MDY board - ready for take off! good luck to all whether you think you know what you are talking about or not!!

[stewjames] 19/9/2003 09:18

I find it mildly depressing, actually. This is symptomatic of the wider market at the moment. It's as if all the painful lessons of the past 3 years have been entirely forgotten.

[dell314] 19/9/2003 09:15

LOL!
This does now appear to be an excellent example of momentum traders/TA users and cretins paying for fresh air, once the value went above any likely asset value.

Rgds
dell

[stewjames] 19/9/2003 09:12

gumberr, far from being rubbish, what they've posted is entirely correct. The only thing they misjudged is just how many stupid people and pure traders (ie ones who don't care in the slightest what it is they're buying) there are 'investing' in the market at the moment.

[gumberr] 19/9/2003 08:49

perhaps I should have held on and made a bit more and not listened to rubbish posted by certain members - mind you they could have made more too serves them right!

[ianreid] 19/9/2003 00:50

I've just talked to Alan Sime at Amberley. I wanted to check out my 'fear' that the property might be sold way above book value. He said, "No, it is being marketed slightly above book and they expect to receive book" - eventually!

I asked about the NAV - he confirmed my figures (which we taken from the last report so not surprising) and re-iterated that there would be some closure costs to be taken out of that.

I asked him about the cash-shell being taken over by someone ... he said - only if the offer was beneficial to shareholders, which he doubted, but of course wouldn't rule out!

If in doubt call him: details on the latest results.

[davidcod] 18/9/2003 13:11

sold earlier @ 7.1p. too risky.

[gumberr] 18/9/2003 13:07

Well done Ianreid - best to hear from the horses mouth so to speak - anyway I am out at 7.1 , in from 6.4 yesterday - 640pounds profit - thanks Amberley !
Davidcod - do you know why this has risen by 1.25p - if in doubt get back in!!

[ianreid] 18/9/2003 10:44

Folks, be very sure that this company is winding up ... there is NO business.
Following the Divi it has about 1.35p cash with about another 0.5p to collect, then one property to sell in Hull. That property is on the books at just under £1m (4.25p) .... so the only reason to value this at 7p plus is if you believe that the property will sell for more than the book value - it's been up for sale for over a year.

The return of the 10p divi is part of the winding up process - they don't need the money because they have no plans for it!

Now, I AM biased, I am now short in this stock. I would buy at 3.5p on a longish term return basis (once property sold) - I will be shorting at 7p+ and I very rarely short anything ...

BUT I can be wrong, I have been many times .... most importantly DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH and please don't believe any nonsense about 15p divis etc!!!

[davidcod] 18/9/2003 10:32

gumberr, do you actually know the reason why AMB gave a 10p dividend or are you totally clueless ? if in doubt get out........

[gumberr] 18/9/2003 09:40

As I said the confusing part is that the you say the company is not doing well but you still believe in the company by posting - If I don't like any company I don't post on that board ,but you don't like the company but still you post - conning yourself I think.

[dell314] 18/9/2003 09:34

AMB is up because people like you are ramping it up with dubious comments like the one I highlighted.
Unfortunately, there are a lot of gullible people on these boards, who still haven't understood the reason for the drop yesterday and are expecting a bounce.

Rgds
dell

[gumberr] 18/9/2003 09:15

dell - you must like the company afterall you are also posting?
if you don't like the company - go somewhere else - your choice !!
and how come it is 1.25p up today if the company is that bad.
Looks as though you are conning people to sell so you can buy cheap!! hence the name dellboy - keep on trotting me old china!!

[dell314] 18/9/2003 09:11

GUMBERR - 18 Sep'03 - 09:06 - 34 of 34

The fact that this company can give a 10p divi shows that it is a great company and it will rise as people want to get ready for the next dividend which could be 15p - who knows?

GUMBERR - You are obviously a deceitful monkey out to con people!

How do you propose they are going to pay a 15p divi when they are in the process of winding up and have about 7p assets?

Rgds
dell