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Ashmore Global Opportunities: another wind-down opportunity?

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Ashmore Global Opportunities (AGOL) announced on 1st February 2013 that they are going into wind-down mode.  The latest Net Asset Value is given as £7.82 vs a share price of £5.75.   If all goes to plan that’s 36% in the bag for investors.

The vote has still to be passed but assuming it is, AGOL will distribute about $60m shortly after 31 March 2013 at NAV.  What that means is that they will buy back some of our shares for a 36% uplift.

They go on to say that  The Board will make further quarterly distributions by way of pro rata redemptions of shares based on the Company’s NAV  on 30 June 2013, 30 September 2013, 31 December 2013 and quarterly thereafter, provided the Company holds cash or cash equivalent proceeds at such quarter end of at least $10 million. The Board may also make distributions by way of dividends or otherwise return capital to shareholders.

They clarify further:  after the distribution in March, $75 million will be realised during the following six months and they expect 50% of the current NAV will be available for distribution by 31 December 2014. The remaining portfolio is expected to be realised beyond this date and may take three further years or longer.

The good news is that this will be an orderly wind-down and not a fire-side sale.  The only unknown is what price will be realised for their assets.

A recent note by Overseas Asset Management  (PDF)  suggests  NAV over 3-4 years might be as high as $12.  Who knows, there is no way for us to know what price will be achieved (see here for assets) but with a return expected as soon as March this year, this looks like a like a reasonable upside play with the only downside being a capitulation in world markets causing a big fall in NAV.

Disclosure: at the time of writing the author holds AGOL

Susan Marmor has been trading her ISA and SIPP full time for 7 years. She has made money every year, including 2008. She believes that making money is about picking the right shares at the right time and using sound money management techniques to manage risk.

For her trading she uses a combination of sound fundamental data and technical analysis (which involves using price charts and some of the fancy bits and pieces that go with them). She runs the occasional seminar to show people what she does and how she does it.


Please keep in mind that all comments made by Susan Marmor are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of securities, options, futures or any other financial instrument of any kind. Consult with your investment advisor before making an investment decision regarding any securities mentioned herein. Susan Marmor assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. Susan Marmor does not warrant completeness or accuracy for any observations made herein, or warrant any results from the use of the information.

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