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| 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.155 | 01:00:00 |
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Posted at 31/12/2023 14:09 by skyship SPLITs Followers’ Thoughts for 2024Another difficult year for investors and the World in general. The Markets see-sawed back and forth almost on a monthly basis; thankfully November/December managed to string together two months of positivity. The UK indices closed the year rather mixed. The FTSE100 finished marginally in positive territory at 7733 (+3.8%). The FTSE 250 also up at 19690 (+ 4.4%); whilst AIM had another poor year closing at 763 (-8.2%). Personally my portfolio traded quietly in a +/- 5% range throughout the year (same as last year) and closed up 4.9%. A boring year; but happily almost covered my SIPP drawdown rate. My Tip for 2023 – Greatland Gold (GGP) - was all over the place with many profitable swings to play. Starting at 8p they saw a low of 6p and a high of 11.5p before closing the year up 25% at 10.0p. My Spec for 2023 – TRINITY Exploration (TRIN) – had a disastrous and frankly bizarre fall of 60%; down from 103p to 41p. More anon… So, where to find some growth for the year ahead. Well, there seems to be a concensus that the UK is under-valued; especially when compared with the over-valued US market. The US is of course showing growth; whereas the UK is languishing on the brink of recession, though a mild one it is to be hoped. The string of transatlantic takeovers supports the hypothesis of a cheap market; but until the institutions and pension funds are regulated to invest back into the UK, the markets may well stay cheap and vulnerable to overseas cherry-picking! My Tip for 2024 was going to be Augmentum Fintech (AUGM), but that ship has sailed with a 35% rise over the past few weeks. I’ve top-sliced; but continue to hold as I see another 25% upside there. Instead of AUGM I select property company CLS Holdings (CLI) at 102p as my Tip for 2024. CLI is a European operation – 45% UK, 42% Germany, 13% France – but has been savaged by the UK Market as they are wholly in the Office sector. However the extent of the fall would seem to be wholly unjustified. Whilst the NAV has fallen 17% from Dec’21 (far less than all UK REITs), the share price has fallen 53% from 218p to the current 102p. At this level the NAV discount is a cavernous 65% and the well covered dividend provides a yield of 7.8%. Through individual ownership and family trusts, the Morstedt family own 62% of the equity and have been large buyers on the way down. The shares fell as low as 85p at the end of October, formed a base and are now seeming set to recover. Last week they broke through the psychological 100p threshold and seem set for a short-term run back up to 130p. Bulls will hope that the Mortstedt family might decide to buy-in the company; or sell out to the hungry PE sector. My Spec for 2024 is to re-run TRIN @ 41.0p. Without TRIN I would have been up 14% in 2023! The shares are absurdly cheap – perhaps like many on AIM. The MCap of a mere £16.4m needs to be weighed against Operating Revenues of $12m for 2023 & a likely $15m+ for 2024. Oil flow is steady at c2900Bopd and next year no petroleum tax. They are already paying a dividend of 1.5p/annum. A rapid recovery to 60p at least looks likely in Q1’24. I look forward to reading others’ New Year tips and views; and any contributions throughout the year are most welcome… ==================== Useful links to gilt/bond prices, commodity prices & the UK 10yr Gilt: |
Posted at 31/3/2023 20:50 by skyship Interesting:============ Please find a message from our Chairman & Chief Investment Officer, Mark Slater. "The bear market that started in late 2021 is now getting fairly long in the tooth. It has led to significant de-ratings across the board, with a small number of exceptions among the megacaps that dominate the FTSE 100 index. We have now seen a run on a major bank. Many investors are trying to work out which is the next shoe to drop – perhaps a real estate collapse, perhaps a worse recession than expected. We are well and truly into the disillusionment phase. Sir John Templeton said that “bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” Conversely, bear markets kill off the euphoria of the previous phase quite quickly and then grind away at any residual optimism until almost all market participants are deeply pessimistic. Given the current mood, the odds are that this bear market is nearing its end. We are not advocates of market timing for the simple reason that it is extremely hard to get it right, both at the point of entry and exit. Investors who can do this are extremely rare, and most of them get it badly wrong at some point. Instead, we prefer to buy businesses we understand that can compound their earnings over time. We expect the majority of the companies we own to do this even though the economic backcloth is challenging. Some other companies we own will probably see their growth rates slow temporarily but we expect them to improve their competitive positions during tough times by taking market share or by making cheaper acquisitions. Only a handful of companies in the portfolio have experienced problems but these are typically due to unforced errors or things like China’s lockdown, issues that are temporary or fixable. We have not seen so many companies we own trade on single digit PE multiples since 2008-9. Now, as then, as companies grow their earnings while their multiples fall they are getting cheaper and cheaper. It is analogous to holding a beach ball under water. Sooner or later you cannot hold it down any longer and it jumps above the water. For a more accurate analogy, someone would also be pumping air into the beach ball while you try to keep in down. It is fashionable to be “down” on the UK, especially after the Truss budget. It is therefore worth remembering that the UK is not all doom and gloom. The Mid 250 index has broadly matched the earnings of the S&P 500 over the past twenty years. The UK market also produces a higher proportion of “tenbaggers While we cannot predict the end of the bear market with any accuracy we also believe we should not try to do so. We are comforted that we own good businesses that are cheaper than they have been for a very long time. If we look ahead a couple of years rather than a couple of months, we expect to make money When things are going wonderfully, people can rarely imagine that they can go wrong. Similarly, when times are tough, people often struggle to imagine that they will one day be wonderful again." Best wishes, Lisa Letham Head of Dealing & Investor Relations Tel: +44 (0) 207 220 9365 |
Posted at 01/1/2023 14:20 by skyship SPLITs Followers’ Thoughts for 2023Well, as expected, 2022 turned out to be a very difficult year for investors and the World in general. Sadly, it is hard to imagine much change in 2023; but the Market always looks ahead; so with better news from Ukraine, then H2’23 could provide better times. The UK indices closed the year in distinctly negative territory, with the exception of the FTSE100, the only large global index in marginally positive territory at 7452 (+0.9%). The FTSE 250 lost 4628 pts at 18853 (- 19.7%); whilst AIM had a really bad year losing 386 pts and closing at 831 (-31.7%). Personally my portfolio traded quietly in a +/- 5% range throughout the year; and closed down 0.4%. A boring year devoid of coups! My Tip for 2022 – Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN) – tipped at 128p, traded up to 150p in the Spring, but then languished, rallied, dropped and closed out at 103.5p – down 19.1%. My Spec for 2022 – Primorus Investments (PRIM) – tipped at 3.5p, traded up to 4p bid in early Spring, but then spent the rest of the year in negative territory, closing down at 2.85p (-18.6%). So, where to find some growth for the year ahead. I considered my preferred sectors of the REITs & PEITs. Both sectors have been hit hard by the rise in interest rates; and the discounts and, in many cases yields, now on offer look to totally discount any further bad news. I have been feeding cash back into the REIT sector; but it is from the commodities sector that I select both my 2023 Tip & Spec. I considered GAS (CHAR); Oil (TRIN); Gold (GGP) & Silver (PHSP). So, my Tip for 2023 is a re-run of 2020’s coup – Greatland Gold (GGP). Last time the shares shot from 1.75p to 35p – a 20bagger! Since that unlikely peak the shares have been a one-way toboggan slide back down to 8p. Now however everything once again looks to be in place for a strong run ahead. The last 6months have seen a big fundraising (no more equity issue required); the appointment of 3 new “Big Name” directors with substantial experience in the sector; a new heavyweight stakeholder and the execution of a £130m debt commitment with a syndicate of Australian banks. Whilst all this was going on they progressed matters for a joint Australian listing in the Spring/Summer; and most importantly their 70% JV partner (the giant Newcrest) progressed the Havieron mine with well-nigh lightning speed. With all the good news it is perhaps surprising that GGP still languish at current levels; but I expect that all to change in the New Year; and would be most surprised not to see a 50% gain back to the 12p level, perhaps higher. The article below states the case far better than I can: My Spec for 2023 is to re-run TRIN @ 103.5p. Regardless of the oil price, TRIN seems absurdly cheap. At a MCap of just £40m - Zero NET Debt; c 42% of share price is Net Cash + Inventory + Vat Receivables; PER for 2023 possibly as low as 3x; buybacks started and a dividend promised for this year. I look forward to reading others’ New Year tips and views; and any contributions throughout the year are most welcome… ==================== Useful links to gilt/bond prices, commodity prices & the UK 10yr Gilt: |
Posted at 26/8/2022 09:31 by skyship I will never forget my JDT thread Tip for 2020 – GGP @ 1.75p – closed the year at 35p for a 20-bagger! (NB – I banked a very nice profit, but it was all the way down at 3.75p!!!).Since then the gold deposit at Haveiron has been developed at lightning speed by 70% JV partner Newcrest. The gold assays consistently show fantastic results. However, not surprisingly considering valuation metrics, the share price has been on a long slide since the halcyon level of 35p. They now trade at 8.5p post a £25m cash raise at 8.2p. It is interesting to do the numbers around this placing: # 363m shares issued at 8.2p # Tribeca (Ozzie asset management group) took c46%, ie c167m shares # So c200m went to sundry institutions; and perhaps a few large individual investors # It is generally assumed that 20% of any placing will flip for a short-term profit # This is considered beneficial to the after market, so not a concern # 20% would mean perhaps 40m shares primed for immediate exit # T/o yesterday was 128m CONCLUSION: Flippers may be higher than usual. Say 30%; that would be 60m shares. However you cut it, I suspect that the flippers will be out before the weekend; so today a very good day to buy whilst still possible with the big figure 8. So I’m back into GGP; though not looking for a 20-bagger. 50% over the next 6months or so will suffice. free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
Posted at 12/3/2022 13:30 by gary1966 Yes embedded or economic value is all that you can go on for life assurance companies. Yes it is very range bound but that offers some protection hopefully in current times with it being at the bottom of the range. Not saying it couldn't have 10% downside if things get extreme, but that probably wouldn't be a bad result in comparison to most other shares and I would feel confident that the dividend would continue to be paid. A lot of investors probably found it to be too boring a share to buy after the pandemic induced falls and that may be why it hasn't recovered as much as others and continues to be range bound. |
Posted at 12/3/2022 12:56 by skyship Three ways the Ukraine war could crash the financial systemIt is quite conceivable that things will get worse than they already are MATTHEW LYNN DTel - 11 March 2022 A siege of Kyiv. The deployment of chemical weapons. Perhaps even a tactical nuclear strike, or full-scale assault on one of the country’s nuclear plants. There are still lots of ways the war in Ukraine could get much worse than it already is. They are all terrifying enough. And yet, there is another threat as well, one that hasn't even started to be added into the potential reckoning: a financial crash. In truth, the markets have never witnessed stress at these levels, nor price moves this violent, without cracks starting to appear somewhere. The eurozone may soon start to splinter, with Cyprus’s oligarch-dependent economy heading into big trouble, and potentially Malta as well. Energy-intensive manufacturers may soon start closing down as their costs become unsustainable; and we could soon be back in a full-scale sovereign debt crisis as developing economies have to choose between buying oil and wheat and paying back their creditors. One point is certain. We have only seen the beginning of the financial turbulence. It will get a lot rockier over the next few months. Three weeks after Russian soldiers started to move into Ukraine, it is already clear that the invasion is turning into the biggest shock to the global economy since the Yom Kippur war in the early 1970s and the quadrupling of energy prices that followed. The great inflation, the dot com bubble, the financial crash, and Covid-19, already look like minor blips by comparison. One of the world’s major economies, and one of the largest exporters of energy, food, and raw materials, is being ruthlessly taken out of the global economy, sending prices soaring, and causing shortages of every type of commodity. We will find out over the next few weeks how long the war will last. Right now, it looks as if the Russian advance has stalled, and its army is about to get bogged down in a long and brutal war of attrition. If so, it is unlikely that Russia will be admitted back into the club of civilised nations any time soon. The rest of the global economy will simply have to work out how to operate without access to Russian energy, grain, and raw materials, just as Russia will have to work out how to survive without western capital, technology, and expertise. And yet, there is no point pretending that won’t fracture the global economy. Where are the stress points? Here are three to keep a close eye on. First, the eurozone. All the attention has been on how Germany will wean itself off Russian gas. But there are smaller economies that are entirely dependent on Russian cash. If anyone thinks London was a laundromat for oligarch money they have not been paying attention to Cyprus. It is the offshore banking centre for Moscow and St Petersburg. There was more than €100bn of Russian investment in the island - with a population of just 1.2 million - in 2020 alone. Cyprus is also by far the largest investor in Russia, as money gets recycled through its financial system into the homeland (it 'invests' almost 20 times as much money into Russia as Germany, according to data from the central bank in Moscow). What happens to that now is anyone’s guess, but it doesn’t sound good. Malta is in the same boat: it stopped selling passports to wealthy Russians last week, but there is plenty of its money on the island. Even Greece was becoming heavily dependent on Russian money. Normally, Cyprus, Malta and Greece would simply devalue their currencies to cope with the adjustment. Within the euro, as we learned so painfully in 2010 and 2011, that isn’t possible. If one of those economies crashes, just as in the Greek crisis of a decade ago, the entire eurozone will quickly be plunged into crisis. Next, watch out for manufacturing defaults. Oil has almost doubled in price and gas is up five-fold. That is bad enough for anyone filling up their car or keeping the boiler switched on, but it is even worse for anyone running a factory that relies on lots and lots of energy. Chemicals, cement, metals and paper plants are among the most energy-intensive industries. There are already reports of steel mills in Spain suspending production and fertiliser manufacturers in Norway closing down. That should hardly be a great surprise. At a certain point it simply isn’t viable to keep going. Here’s the problem. All those companies have bank debts to service, and their staff have mortgages to pay. As more and more close their doors debts will cascade through the system. Finally, a sovereign debt crisis. Russia has already indicated it will default on its debts for the first time since Lenin decided that the “debts of the Tsar died with the Tsar” in 1918. That is worrying enough, and no doubt we will find out soon enough who was lending more money to the country than was wise or prudent (here’s a clue - they may well be based in Germany). But it is not likely to stop there. Very soon many of the developing economies will have to make an unpleasant choice over whether they carry on paying their foreign creditors, or continue to buy oil and grain instead. It is not hard to work out which will come first. A series of sovereign defaults are inevitable, especially as debt levels have soared in the last decade. The harsh truth is that the extreme movement in prices of the past fortnight still has to ripple through the global economy. So do the consequences of taking Russia out of the global financial system, eliminating its debts, and removing the clique of oligarchs around the Kremlin. We haven’t seen a crash yet. But it may only be a matter of time - the real question is how bad the shock will be. ============ |
Posted at 31/1/2022 16:55 by skyship Gary - IC Alpha has tipped your STCM. Not a subscriber to Alp[ha; but starts as below:Our Aim GARP screen topper, Steppe Cement (STCM) is a company with a lot of interesting risks and opportunities to consider. Firstly, cement is one of those Jekyll and Hyde products in the eyes of environment, social and governance (ESG) conscious investors: one the one hand cement manufacture is incredibly carbon intensive and on the other hand, it is essential to building the infrastructure that will ready humanity for a lower carbon future. Steppe Cement is an investment holding company, but one of its subsidiaries has its main manufacturing facility in Kazakhstan, so political risk is also a consideration. |
Posted at 17/10/2021 14:14 by skyship Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN:155p), is an oil/gas exploration and production company in the highly productive region in and around Trinidad and Tobago (“TT”). With substantial onshore assets funding both onshore and offshore exploration, TRIN has a large number of ongoing projects nearing development. The Company has plenty of cash to fund development; and this year’s strength in oil/gas prices promises to double operating profits from existing production.The TT government is highly supportive of the hydrocarbon industry as they wish to develop the tax base as swiftly as possible, whilst providing every incentive to both existing and new players. If you have access to Cenkos reports, then do read there. They target an share price of c350p. For background facts I could paraphrase Simon Thompson’s (IC) articles, but surely better just to read the Company’s detailed update of 14th October (see Advfn link below) and read through the website presentations: Throughout your research keep a particular eye on the “Galeota&rdquo TRIN has a MCap of a mere £61m; has £15m in Cash; has prospects galore which are approaching development at a time when prices are rising and the World, inc. the Green Lobby, is aware that hydrocarbons will have to be with us for decades to come. IMO TRIN are seriously under-valued; and even at double today’s price they would still be a VALUE play in the oil/gas sector. |
Posted at 22/8/2021 15:33 by skyship Tournesol - thnx for that. Such comments uncalled for; but of course much appreciated.Sorry to read that HL for some reason won't permit a purchase of JPEL - but always very difficult in any event! Elsewhere, a small allocation to ALS highly recommended. Even after Friday's rise on the MoneyWeek article below. Bank a few below 70p and hold for 6/12months: "The best bet on Aim On Aim, one company stands out for me: Altus Strategies (Aim: ALS). Quite what this £50m marketcap stock has to do to achieve a “fair” price, I’m not sure, but it offers extraordinary value at 60p. It has influential partners and investors, is doing sterling work on the ground and seems to be announcing positive news almost every week. I think part of the problem is that this company has so much going on. Altus farms out assets in joint ventures, royalty deals and so on, thus getting others to pay for the drilling and development, but it also has projects it is developing alone. Project generators, with a portfolio of assets, are never quite as easy a sell as single-asset-focused companies. It is operating in several North African countries, where there is no shortage of gold. It has influential allies and first-mover advantage in almost all of them. Altus has several billionaire backers. Its biggest shareholder is La Mancha, the office of an Egyptian billionaire, which owns 35%. La Mancha has only two other listed strategic resource investments (both gold companies in Africa), one of which is Endeavour Mining, worth over C$1bn. That puts its investment in Altus into perspective. A similar company is Canada’s EMX Royalty, withamarket cap five times bigger. What can I say? “One day, Rodney... ” |
Posted at 18/4/2021 12:34 by skyship A good article on the PE sector. NBPE made up some of their under-valuation last week; but still on 20.5% discount - higher than all their peers on an average of just 12%. MVI also perhaps worth a speculative dabble as their increasing NAV delivers a 35% discount.==================== Is private equity in for a rerating? By Richard Hickman - FT - 12 Apr’21 Many investors focus heavily or exclusively on the public markets when screening for new opportunities. However, this overlooks a fast-growing part of the global investment landscape that has delivered historic outperformance: the $4.7tn (£3.4tn) in funds focused on private companies. When unlisted companies announce their intention to IPO, the news is often greeted with excitement in the press amid speculation around the offer price and the potential returns for investors buying in at that point. This type of investing often carries higher risk, however, and therefore requires specialised skills and experience to identify the potential successes. Less commonly, details emerge of the gains accruing to the original backers: the venture capital funds able to invest at an early stage, often many years prior. Typically these funds pool money from professional investors and institutions. The experienced fund managers then deploy investors’ capital into a range of start-up or early-stage businesses. Many of these young companies fail but some go on to become so-called 'unicorns' – billion-dollar-plus companies disrupting or dominating their industries. Think Airbnb in the US or Trustpilot in the UK – both backed at an early stage by venture capital funds. The examples above are well-known to a UK audience, but increasingly this type of opportunity is available further afield. China now has the largest number of unicorn companies globally thanks to a fast-growing and dynamic venture capital ecosystem. This type of investing often carries higher risk, however, and therefore requires specialised skills and experience to identify the potential successes while trying to avoid the failures. Market opportunities Many public market investors may not realise they have the opportunity to gain exposure to professionally managed portfolios of private companies around the globe, well ahead of any IPO or exit, simply by purchasing shares in a London-listed private equity investment trust or company. The first investment trust, Foreign and Colonial, was established in Britain more than 150 years ago in 1868 to pool money from “investors of moderate means” and purchase a portfolio of overseas government bonds. According to the Association of Investment Companies, today there are 392 investment trusts that provide exposure to a whole range of assets, including conventional listed equities, infrastructure portfolios, commercial property and, of course, private equity. The latter group fell out of favour during the global financial crisis of 2008-09 and has yet to fully recapture the attention from investors that it once enjoyed. Trust discounts Most trusts in the sector are trading today on wide discounts to net asset value while the more mainstream sectors are at par or even a premium. The discounts are perhaps surprising when you realise that the listed private equity sector offers early stage exposure to the kinds of opportunities described above, and that the same private equity groups who manage these portfolios often raise billions of dollars a year from institutional clients away from the public markets. For investors who may be interested in gaining exposure to private equity, one potential concern today is the prospect of a rotation out of growth-oriented technology stocks and into value, that is, unloved traditional businesses trading at low valuations. Were this to happen, however, listed private equity trust portfolios would potentially benefit from another type of exposure that they typically provide: the more mature buyout investments whereby a manager takes a controlling stake in an established business. Many of the investee companies are large enough to be listed on stock exchanges, but their owners have chosen to keep them private rather than file for IPO. Instead, they seek capital injections from private equity managers who offer to partner with management teams and drive value creation over a period of several years, without obsessing unduly over short-term results, as is often the case in the public markets. In private equity, the interests of owners and managers are aligned in pursuit of the best possible outcome for the business. Historic track records indicate strongly that this partnering approach delivers returns in excess of the public equity indices over extended time periods. Good value It might also be said that the listed private equity investment trusts in themselves represent value: they have generally performed well yet are available at wide discounts to their published NAVs. At present, there may be additional latent value in their portfolios, as some of the NAVs are still based largely on valuations last updated at the end of September 2020. This is because valuing private company investments takes time, often resulting in a lag of several months before the latest quarterly figures are included in the fund NAVs. Private companies are often valued with reference to a comparable set of public companies. Given the strong performance that we saw from the public markets in Q4 2020, the December valuations have the potential to drive significant gains. Some brokers are anticipating further NAV upside; increases that may not yet be priced into the listed private equity trusts’ shares. Leave it to the professionals Since the returns in private company investing can vary widely, it is better left to experienced professionals to try and identify the best opportunities, while also limiting downside risk and managing the complex processes and cash flows involved. Furthermore, these managers are increasingly focused on environmental, social and governance considerations and, as private owners, are often able to take decisive action where necessary to enhance a company’s performance in these areas. This may partly explain why private equity coped relatively well with the Covid crisis: managers know their portfolio companies intimately and can help them adapt quickly to changing circumstances, protecting and enhancing value for stakeholders long-term. Some listed private equity trusts have delivered double-digit returns consistently for many years, yet their persistent discounts suggest the market is not giving full credit for this outperformance. However, investors familiar with the sector have quietly been reaping the rewards, with share prices more than tripling in some cases over the past 10 years. There are signs that more professional money managers are waking up to the opportunity, with share prices ticking higher in recent weeks in anticipation of the prospective results to come. Are we seeing the beginnings of a rerating? |
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