Five China Questions for Candidate Biden
03 August 2020 - 4:19PM
Dow Jones News
By Gerald F. Seib
Let us take a step back -- okay, make that several big steps
back -- from the sounds and fury of this summer and take note of
what should be obvious: The most important issue facing the country
and the world in coming years is the rapidly deteriorating
relationship between the two most powerful nations on the planet,
China and the U.S.
If not for the coronavirus, George Floyd, conflicts in Portland,
a Depression-like economic slide, and a president suggesting
delaying a national election, the question of whether we are headed
into a new, decadeslong Cold War would be dominating the
campaign-season conversation. Instead, it is a footnote.
So, China needs more attention. Voters can at least see how
President Trump is handling this relationship based on his actions
in office, and on his increasing demonization of China on the
campaign trail, and draw their own conclusions.
It's harder to gauge how Democratic challenger Joe Biden would
address the most important strategic issue he would face as
president -- and therefore more important that voters hear his
views. Mr. Biden is, after all, leading the race now, and has a
good chance of having his hands on the levers of this
relationship.
So far Mr. Biden has talked about China in general terms, and
advisers say he will continue to do so. His main message is that
Mr. Trump has badly mishandled the China portfolio, creating new
tensions without earning real changes in Chinese economic or
security behavior.
Mr. Biden has called for policies that encourage U.S. companies
to bring manufacturing of critical supplies back from China, and in
a recent piece in Foreign Affairs magazine called China "a special
challenge." He noted his time spent with Chinese leaders while vice
president as a sign of his expertise, cited a need to "get tough
with China," stressed the need to work with allies, and argued for
continuing to seek cooperation with Beijing in areas where
interests converge such as climate change, nonproliferation and
global health.
Yet that leaves a lot of important questions still hanging about
how he might reset the relationship. Here are five:
-- Will you stick with the Trump tariffs on China? Mr. Trump has
made tariffs the principal lever for exerting pressure on China,
even at the cost of some pain to the American economy as China
retaliates. The tariffs were supposed to produce a broad long-term
trade deal with China, but that isn't going to happen before
Election Day. So, do the tariffs stay or go?
-- Will you revive the Trans Pacific Partnership? Ditching the
Asian-American trade pact is at odds with the goal of containing
China's expanding influence. The accord excludes China and would
create an alternative economic alliance with friendly nations that
want to offset Chinese power. Yet Mr. Trump dropped it. Mr. Biden,
after pushing for its creation during the Obama administration,
said during the primary season he would insist it be renegotiated.
Would that be a Biden administration priority despite antipathy
toward the pact by the Democratic left?
-- What, if anything, can be done to reverse China's
militarization of the South China Sea? China's territorial claims,
and its moves to build out the artificial islands it has created,
proceeded steadily when Mr. Biden was serving as vice president in
the Obama administration. Despite bluster on the subject, Mr. Trump
has found no formula to turn that around. If there is going to be
something other than capitulation on this front, the U.S. will need
to take a firm stance alongside allies. But the most important of
those allies -- South Korea and Japan -- are deeply invested in
China's economic success and wary of making big waves. Perhaps it's
already too late.
-- Can more be done for democracy-seekers in Hong Kong and
Muslims in Xinjiang? China's imposition of its own security system
in Hong Kong seems to have ended forever Hong Kong's special status
as a colony with some measure of independence. Similarly, its
suppression of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang seems to be a firm
statement they will never enjoy religious and cultural freedom. In
response, the Trump administration has said it no longer will grant
any special economic status to Hong Kong, and has imposed sanctions
on Chinese officials over their actions in Xinjiang. Are those the
right steps, and are they enough -- or does the U.S. simply have to
accept China's actions as a fait accompli? And how would a Biden
administration assure Taiwan it won't be the next Hong Kong?
-- Should the U.S. insist that China be part of any strategic
arms deals negotiated with Russia? Given China's rise as a military
power and geopolitical rival, the Trump administration has been
arguing that it has to be included alongside Russia in future
strategic agreements. The logic is clear, though that also could
delay or even destroy chances of renewing a deal with Russia.
Write to Gerald F. Seib at jerry.seib@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 03, 2020 11:04 ET (15:04 GMT)
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