Zenith Energy Share Discussion Threads

[joeblogg2] 15/2/2012 17:36

A couple of 150k buys , not sure if a rollover but are sepaated by 30 mins?

[duncandisorderly] 15/2/2012 16:29

Don't know what's going on and don't particularly care as long as it gets to two pounds eventually.

[joeblogg2] 15/2/2012 15:58

Looking better!!!

[drradcliffe] 15/2/2012 10:50

duncan - thanks, sorry dcroston. Your write is really useful. As someone else said one of the best Zen posts for a long while...

I have done a very quick calculation, and believe with 69.059m shares and a "easily realisable" asset/cash position at Dec 31st of £6.55m, and £400k burn per month that will leave Simon Cleaver with a little under £5m by the time he gets to the AGM. At that point we're looking at a cash value of 6.5p per share.

[duncandisorderly] 15/2/2012 10:36

I think they have quite a lot of irons in the fire though and you'll find once a few are up and running the rest will just fall into place.

[duncandisorderly] 15/2/2012 10:35

I'm sorry Doc,it wasn't me but dcroston that gave us that write up,bit I'm sure he will allow me to thank you on his behalf,lol.

[drradcliffe] 15/2/2012 10:31

duncandisorderly, thank you for the excellent write up yesterday. I take it that the company's future hangs on the two Russian orders now, and they have 9 weeks to get the orders signed and (I guess) get some kind of deposit from the Russians. I wonder whether the Russian order has actually been delayed, and SC had hoped to announce it on the 10th.

[p o n a] 15/2/2012 10:26

Thanks dcroston for the feedback.


So the current cash figure should stand around at :

£5.3m (year end cash) + £460k (unit sale in Oct) + £700k (AEP test grid sale) - £800k (cash burn fro Jan + Feb) = £5.66m (which coincidentally is the market cap at the moment)

Is that roughly right ?

[duncandisorderly] 15/2/2012 10:26

I know mate.There is a very,very real chance this share could be a couple of quid by the end of this year,forget about one pound.
I don't want to get ahead of myself and get over excited but the worldwide market for FCL's is huge and we are a front runner so if SC stats to get the deals we could be off in a shot.

[dcroston] 15/2/2012 10:19

In the region of about 400 FCL's each year Dunc.

[duncandisorderly] 15/2/2012 09:57

I have heard that the Russian market needs a minimum of 3,500 FCLS.
If we get one tenth of that order the vodka shots will be on me.

[pwilk47490] 14/2/2012 20:02

What a swithed-on guy SC appears to be. Specifically, not bothering building prototype as it would extend time to orders! But give companies assurances instead!

Seems a top man to me! Very happy to hold! Thanks drcoston!

May keep an eye on his business activities in the future as well ;-)

[dcroston] 14/2/2012 19:40

Slight amendment.

In my summary, I stated March (AGM time ish) as the deadline for orders (I think Simon said both?). The AGM is on 18th April. Anyway, just wanted to clear that up. What is important to note is that the company will give it a couple of months to secure orders before making a decision on its future.

[dcroston] 14/2/2012 18:47

Joeblogg2,

Simon is a very decent chap. I trust him to do what is best for shareholders if orders arent secured.

His plan was always to give it until January ish - I know myself and errollc posted this at least a couple of times each.

There is no panic at all from what I can tell. They have numerous leads for orders that are being followed up at various stages of advancement.

Not without risk of course, but I'm optimistic and comfortable with any downside if no orders are secured.

Good luck all,
DC

[joeblogg2] 14/2/2012 18:18

I have spoken to SC a few times and the guy is very decent and to the point. I hope the people he is talking to give him a contract(s) as he has brought the company from the brink!!!

[supernumerary] 14/2/2012 18:18

mudbath - I agree - I thought there was enough to get them through to the end of the year without such panic measures. They're certainly sending out the wrong message to potential customers with that sort of remark. Perhaps the bigger shareholders are fed up and would rather have their cash back than watch it dissipated in another year of futile order-chasing?

[mudbath] 14/2/2012 18:08

Indeed,very informative.Thanks dcroston.
I have to be surprised though that SC was originally only giving it till last month.
Even now there appear to be only weeks before the threat of ZEN becoming merely a cash shell.

[duncandisorderly] 14/2/2012 17:27

Dc,thanks mate,what a star,certainly the best thing I've read on the Zen board.

[joeblogg2] 14/2/2012 16:24

Thks dc. The potential is huge if we get the first one then the rest will follow!!

[dcroston] 14/2/2012 16:19

I've spoken with Simon earlier today so thought I'd post what was discussed.

Keep in mind that these are my own personal notes from a telephone conversation and it's a summary only and hopefully gets over the pertinent points of the conversation.

I started off by asking him a few questions, so here goes.


1. Did the company discard with building the scaled up prototype (33KV)? If so, Why?
Yes, the company made the decision to not build the prototype. There was a delay in getting the people resources required to build and complete testing which would have delayed completion until around May time. They took a decision that a delay in building the prototype could impact orders, in that some customers may decide to wait for the completion before taking an interest and that was time they couldn't afford to waste. In order to de-risk the customer, the company will write a guarantee into any contracts regarding any build issues.

2. Does the cash position of £5.3m reported on 31 Dec 2011 include the £0.5m profit from of the sale of 11kv superconducting MFCL unit annouced 18th Oct 2011?
No, there is still £460k cash to be received on this sale. The FCL which was removed from AEP test grid has also been sold in January for £700k. Approximately, £150-200k of wire still for sale. Cash burn still around £350-400k.

3. Please can you clarify what discussions regarding a potential sale of a superconductive MFCL the company is referring to?
I was a little woolly on this but the gist of this was that it was an order for a 33Kv which ASL would build and profit to ZEN would be in the region of £0.5m. If the order went through, it was likely to be announced in March.

4. Last time we communicated, you stated that the company believed that GridON was in breach of Zenergy's patents. Does the company still believe this to be the case and has it received any response back from GridON?
Yes, lawyers have written to GridON and a reply has been received back. At this stage, they are not going to get embroiled in any legal action (that may change depending on what happens to the business in the coming months). They believe that GridON's FCL design is in breach. Just a few words on the patents because I had a few doubts whether or not they had been written specifically for superconducting technology. All patents specify a magnetic flux in the design and are not specific on superconducting or non-superconducting and therefore cover both.

Ok, they were my questions I asked. Simon was kind enough to elaborate on the potential order pipeline which I will give a quick summary on.

- There are more than a dozen leads at varying stages of discussion.
- Two potential orders from Russia for 20Kv FCL's are at the contract write up stage (nothing is signed). Russian market is huge.
- Potentially a very large order in the US (potentially up to 64 FCL's altogether)
- There are 2 potential orders in the UK (11kv I think).
- A couple of leads in Thailand .


Simon desperately wants this to succeed. The plan was to give it until January 2012 but he's decided that he wants to give this until March (AGM time ish) to see if he can make this a business. He'd like to get three orders by then. If he can't turn this around then he'll convert this to a cash shell.


Regards,
DC

[duncandisorderly] 14/2/2012 14:50

It will only change usually during the day if a automated trade goes through,otherwise they will change it at the end of the day.
Moving up nicely under the radar the guys,what lies beneath.

[mudbath] 14/2/2012 14:46

Strange that ADVFN continue to quote 7.5pence as one can currently sell @ 7.9pence

[duncandisorderly] 14/2/2012 13:24

Not sure mate.The walk up was very strong and deliberate but done without the normal ramping clan that are usually attached to it,(Simon Crakwell for e.g).
The walk down was also very deliberate but not very often did I see the new bid price drop below the old offer price.
All I know is this is a company ripe for a t/o to the right person,who or what that company is I have no idea.

[joeblogg2] 14/2/2012 13:08

YOu are right dunc. just bought 12.5k and bid went up. So waht was all the volume over the last week or so, are we nearer to some contract or is someone on the prowl???

[duncandisorderly] 14/2/2012 09:47

The slightest of buys sends the offer up every time.It does feel like there is something happening out there.