Yu Share Discussion Threads

[sparky333] 13/4/2021 10:18

Buyers are coming in at this level for a second time so looks to be the bottom around 240 to 250.

[sparky333] 13/4/2021 10:17

Nothing wrong with that style of trading but amplifies the swings. The cycle will start again soon heading towards AGM or after the investor briefing on the 20th.Low float is a positive but also a negative for long term holders

[sparky333] 13/4/2021 10:09

You timed it wrong last time

[sparky333] 13/4/2021 10:09

People like you Ammu. To be blunt.

[sparky333] 13/4/2021 10:09

Happens every time after results see it so many times. People are making a fortune churning this stock

[zb27] 09/4/2021 17:30

Totally agree. share price is very very conservative. As sparky has suggested you just have to look at H2 2020, forecasted a loss, however they absolutely smashed it and it was a small profit. With the way they are selecting high profit contracts, with the increased revenues, profitability will increase now. They have learned from their previous mistakes, and now primed the business for pure growth, all systems and processes are now streamlined. With a £130-140m turnover, profitable, zero debt, and 76% of shares tightly held, its massively undervalued. £43m market cap, they having a laugh! If further acquisition are made, then that will be another boost. And quite unique for an AIM share or any share, there has been no dilution in the last 3 years!!!

[sparky333] 09/4/2021 17:12

In simplistic terms , I am assuming share price are deliberately low.All the metrics they use I will assume as a minimum 10 to 20% higher or lower in terms of overheads etc.For example share price forecast H2 2020 as a 1.5m loss of memory is correct on 47m turnover They actual smashed the turnover with 56m and a very small profit.Assumption is the same for 2021 they assume 128m turnover I personally think due to higher consumption and contract wins turnover will be 140m+ excluding mergers/takeovers.Overheads are effectively fixed so the more revenue the higher the net margin

[seagull222] 09/4/2021 16:19

So, so share price angel are forecasting £129m turnover without any takeovers and ebidta of 450k so, where are you forcasting £3m more ebidta in 2021 without any takeovers than share price angel and why? You said were running the figures thro your spreadsheets.

Sorry Sparky, I am just trying to understand how you get to that ebidta as I believe that is the underlining reason your so, positive for the future and these facts will drive the share price forward.

You are a major shareholder so, I respect your knowledge of the company. You are also very good re brining important information to shareholders attention like investor presentations etc.

Thanks in advance and keep up the good work.

Seagull

[fidra] 09/4/2021 16:13

I am expecting a larger sales figure than they have in for this year.

If they are adding at £10m a month and they are carrying forward6 or £7.0m a month from last year,surely that is £16m a month sales going forward.assuming they sign up for a year and and the loss rate is only 30% .

Meaning they retain the 70%.yoy

[sparky333] 09/4/2021 15:50

Look at the previous forecasts from SP, they are engineered to be beaten significantly.Sensible PR going forward always reads better in headlines. Do you really believe turnover will be at 128m with .5m profit ? Nah turnover will be significantly higher and does not take account of takeovers / mergers.They turnover 111m in 2018 when half the size and ore Covid.SME engine will be burning hot for 2021 so rather than 90% usage could be way over 100%

[seagull222] 09/4/2021 15:32

Thanks for the reply Sparky, I am sure you know ebidta ,is earnings before interest, depreciation and Tax, tax isn't Vat and doesn't form part of profit along with capital spend such as fixed assets like the new building. Reference corporation tax YU are able to carry forward losses so, any profits go straight to the bank account. I think you are saying you expect ebidta of £3.5m to £4m for 2021 as a result of the uplift in sales , is this correct? This is at least £3m more than share price angel. If your numbers are correct then there should be a massive re rate in the share price and share price angel need to be binned for only forecasting 450k for 2021. Have you looked to see where your forecast differs from the broker? It's a massive difference and clearly we need better analysts if they are so far out on their estimates ebidta.

Seagull

[sparky333] 09/4/2021 12:48

Remember 21 has to pay VAT deferral like every other company and also the final payment on Leicester office which has been paid already.If not for VAT which was 3.5m the profit would be closer to 4m

[seagull222] 09/4/2021 12:34

A £27m forecast uplift in Sales should see a healthy bump up in the bottom line, less investment in digital channels & new Leicester office. I notice BK getting £120k a year in rent in accounts.

Seagull

[sparky333] 09/4/2021 12:12

Sorry seagull a little tied up at present and on leave next week

[seagull222] 09/4/2021 11:53

Morning Sparky, you had a chance to look work your spreadsheet to get a predicted EBITDA for 2021 based on market expectations of £129m turnover in 2021?

Thanks in advance

Seagull

[frrinvest] 08/4/2021 17:17

Would highly recommend investors/would be investors to run through that latest Broker note on YU. I know we take these notes with a pinch of salt at times but this one caught my eye as there are many visible and a few hidden gems. The note is very conservative but shows a resounding BUY on current fundamentals and outlook. DYOR first, I've done mine. I've been in this company for a while but this note has given me so much more confidence. I would ignore the PT for the time being. Good luck.

hxxps://www.yugroupplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/YUG__07042021_Note.pdf

[seagull222] 08/4/2021 16:24

Nice to see a solid day today and share price performing strongly after a rocky few days.

Onwards and upwards

Seagull

[sparky333] 08/4/2021 15:23

Nice intra day reversal today under volume.