Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[7kiwi] 01/2/2024 08:48

Off to a good start. KAP cuts 2024 production guidance by ~9m lbs, or about 6-7% of global supply. 2025 guidance at big risk too.

Starting to look a lot like a Cigar Lake moment.


Now would be a good time to get back to NAV, raise $100m and see what KAP can deliver.

[sea7] 29/1/2024 08:24

quakes take on acid shortage..



One thing we can definitely all agree on I think is that the February 1st $KAP Financial results and 2024/2025 production guidance are likely to set off fireworks.

[walter walcarpets] 27/1/2024 22:07

Plausible theory of spot price end of month weakness from John Quakes.

[sea7] 26/1/2024 15:20

Yep - but I have added to my position here - rude not to.

[7kiwi] 26/1/2024 15:18

Spot up 0.50 to 101.50/lb but the sector seems weak today, including YCA.

[sea7] 26/1/2024 15:07

Yep - that should move things

[walter walcarpets] 26/1/2024 14:08

KAP big miss on production...

[sea7] 26/1/2024 13:22

URA rebalancing is also taking place - so we are seeing some selling here

[bulltradept] 26/1/2024 09:13

Nothing wrong with a healthy 10% pull back form the high if it happens.

[7kiwi] 25/1/2024 22:09

Yes, it's got the mid around 550. The chart is a sight to behold.

But sadly the glitch masks that spot slipped a bit to 101 mid price.

The volatility continues.

[sea7] 25/1/2024 19:21

I see that numerco site isn't updating correctly - if only in dollars not cents LOL!!!

Spot Uranium: 10000/99900 USc/Lb U3O8 (-300c, -0.55%)

[csalvage] 25/1/2024 16:34

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-uranium-producer-is-running-short.html?__source=androidappshare

[7kiwi] 25/1/2024 14:31

Looks like the gap on the chart from mid-Jan has been closed.

[sea7] 25/1/2024 13:02

SPUT picked up another 100k lbs yesterday

[bagpuss67] 24/1/2024 22:16

Great. I hold GLO..although commentary suggests it may not be impacted..

[7kiwi] 24/1/2024 21:34

Apparently, Niger reviewing existing and future mining licences. Looks like more delays to the supply response to the looming deficit.

[7kiwi] 24/1/2024 20:07

Spot has ticked back a bit to $104/lb mid-price.

[7kiwi] 24/1/2024 09:32

Operating update is a good read.

[7kiwi] 23/1/2024 13:45

Rimau,

I don't think there's a raise imminent. First there's $33m on the balance sheet. Second, raising now would be dilutive to existing shareholders and all prior raisings have been neutral or slightly accretive. They won't raise at such a discount, imv.

Nimbo,

At current Numerco mid-price of $106/lb and share price of 712p, I make the discount 15.8%. It's big, but nowhere near 20%.

I would think a buyback is much more likely than a raise. But I suspect they will wait to see how the market reacts to the upcoming statements from KAP and CCO before deciding whether to do a buyback or not.

If YCA does get to NAV and thinks about raising, I wonder if KAP has the material to honour the $100m option? I suppose what works in KAP's favour is that $100m now buys less than 1m lbs, whereas not too long ago it would have bought 2m lbs or more.

[nimbo1] 23/1/2024 10:19

There is always a raise coming I guess. Don’t see why it’ll be at this much of a discount though…

[rimau1] 23/1/2024 09:59

Any chance that maybe there is a raise coming? Approx £12m cash on the balance sheet i guess. Need to fund the 2024 option at some point. Although Kiwi will have a much better informed view than me.

[nimbo1] 23/1/2024 09:31

20 percent discount to nav?!

[mrnumpty] 20/1/2024 17:01

Kiwi . Thanks for your explanation . For what it’s worth , I agree . It wasn’t long ago that civil unrest in Niger caused a jump in the rise of the price of U308 and yet I believe that Niger is a far smaller producer than Kazakhstan ( thus supporting your point that the loss of Kazakhstan would actually benefit the price of Yellow Cske , as the loss of our company’s source would be more than outweighed by the shortage of U308 in the West ) . The internet reminds us that it was only just over two years ago ( January 2022 , only a few weeks before Russia then attacked Ukraine ) that Russian troops entered Kazakhstan in order to prop up the government , illustrating just how close the regime in Almaty is to Moscow .