Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[7kiwi] 20/1/2024 10:40

MrN.

Kazatomprom is already under significant influence from Russia and China.

According to this press report, China has contracts for 60% of Kaz production and Russia 26%, leaving just 14% for the west. Iirc, even Cameco did a deal to sell some of its share of Inkai production to China.

The option with KAP was and is valuable, but even if the option is somehow terminated early, I don't really see how that negatively impacts YCA's share price. It would underline the scarcity of western material and push up the per pound price, pushing up YCA's NAV per share. It's NAV per share matters far more than total NAV of the company.

As I said before, my own view is that at some point YCA will be taken out by a consortium of producers and/or utilities. There's a 30-50m lb p.a. structural deficit in the market for the next few years. YCA's 21m lbs will help mitigate the deficit in one of those years. It would have to at least be at NAV though for shareholders to approve such a deal.

[7kiwi] 19/1/2024 17:02

It's a thread. As it says it is

[7kiwi] 19/1/2024 15:19

I did a bit of research on KAP's sulphuric acid consumption. Looks like the amount of H2SO4 required per tonne of U3O8 produced is going up quite dramatically.

[yupawiese2010] 18/1/2024 16:13

Here is the short Berenberg article.

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg raised their target price on uranium group Yellow Cake from 744.0p to 883.0p on Thursday following a fireside chat with chief executive Andre Liebenberg and Dustin Garrow, managing principal at Nuclear Fuel Associates and chief commercial officer of 308 Services.

Berenberg said it came away from the chat with the view that the uranium's price rally can be sustained, with tight supply, plus existing supply disruptions, as well as delays to new projects, thin spot markets and a positive demand outlook from both growing utility demand and small modular reactors, plus the ongoing headwind of falling coverage ratios, particularly for US utilities, all pointing to prices being well underpinned with scope for further disruptions to push the price of uranium higher.

The German bank, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock, also noted that underpinning this and providing more upside risk for prices, scope remains for the US government to ban imports of Russian uranium, providing a further dislocation of trade flows and impacting supply of uranium into the US, creating an energy security risk.

"We think that uranium prices are likely to remain elevated and think that there is scope for further price appreciation due to the tight markets and ongoing supply risk. We lift our price to $102.50/lb for 2024 and remain of the view that prices can spike even further from current levels," said Berenberg. "This lifts our Yellow Cake price target to 883.0p per share. Yellow Cake is trading at a 14% discount to pro-forma net asset value and we see a clear trade here for investors to generate alpha through the NAV discount arbitrage."

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com

[bmcb5] 18/1/2024 12:05

Finally! The charts now reflect $100

Congrats to holders here. It’s taken patience but now we just need to sit and watch it play out

[csalvage] 18/1/2024 10:05

Berenberg raises Yellow Cake price target to 883 (744) pence - 'buy'

[sea7] 15/1/2024 15:21

that does sound a major issue kiwi - if confirmed!

[sea7] 15/1/2024 15:20

numerco moved 104/108

[yupawiese2010] 15/1/2024 12:28

Kiwi - Kazakhstan is one of the top 10 largest producers of sulfuric acid with 4.58M metric tons produced in 2022. And $KAP cannot secure any?.

Kazakhstan best friends China are the worlds largest producer at 85 million metric tons per annum,& accompanied by Russia in fourth place who produce 14.85 million metric tons, so it does seen rather bizarre when Kazatamprom claim that there is supply problems in securing sulfuric acid. Maybe there's some truth in Kuppy's statement.

[7kiwi] 14/1/2024 23:49

Ozzie stocks up strongly at the open. Around 8%-ish.

[7kiwi] 14/1/2024 22:22

This, from Twitter is allegedly from Kuppy's newsletter. Even if it's only partially true, it's potentially explosive.

[7kiwi] 14/1/2024 19:39

Sea,

I reckon the KAP announcement has put people on watch, but many will wait to see what they say in their full year statement, I think in February.

The other one to watch is Cameco. They had production problems last year. It will be interesting to see if they hold their production targets for this year. 22m lbs attributable, iirc.

I suspect they will announce the reopening of Rabbit Lake and/or their US assets.

One thing is for sure, supply is fragile.

[cousinit] 14/1/2024 19:38

I guess it depends if it's a meaningful weight or not.

If it's, say, 10% - a top slice could be when it reaches 12% (back to 10) and if the price gets to a particular level (say £12) that could be the trigger to reduce to 5%.

Insert your own numbers as to where you feel risk/reward sits, both absolute and relative going forward.

[bagpuss67] 14/1/2024 18:33

Hopefully miss the right hadn't side of the spike that occurred in 2008...or often happens with markets going vertical....In terms of reinvestment some family members are young and some middle aged and can't afford to lose too much cash..so I guess there will be different reinvestment priorities

[csalvage] 14/1/2024 17:44

If you do top slice what you going to do with the money .

[bagpuss67] 14/1/2024 17:27

Would be interested in the boards views on how to holdings that are going parabolic but where you also see good longer term fundamentals...a range of family members (some risk averse!!!) are in here at by behest and i don't want to not crystallise decent gains for them..I did top slice a few for each of them but that was way to early (still for a nice gain) Maybe set targets for further top slicing? Any thoughts welcome?

[sea7] 14/1/2024 16:17

thanks cousinIT

Yes, it does seem that way!

[cousinit] 14/1/2024 16:11

It's an interesting question Sea.

Demand is definitely increasing. Supply is being constrained (in the West using sources not subject to sanctions). New supply takes some considerable time to come on line.

This is the classic supply/demand imbalance that attracted a lot of people to the trade in the first place. Recent developments have generally brought forward the 'crunch' point.

Maybe this doesn't light the touch paper quite like Cigar Lake, but it feels a few wisps of smoke are rising...

[sea7] 14/1/2024 15:10

excerpt from john quakes on x

the knock-on effects from an unexpected Friday morning news release by the world's largest supplier of mined uranium will reverberate throughout the entire nuclear fuel industry🔊 from Kazatomprom and its global JV partners to Nuclear utilities and traders. All will now be looking to find alternative sources of supply to meet their contractual obligations, including near-term purchases in the Spot market.🛒

The upshot is, no matter whether Kazakhstan achieves its previous 2024 and 2025 production targets or not, every other producer, trader and nuclear utility affected by the 'potential' for missed deliveries will now be actively seeking out Spot lbs to hedge against that possible outcome, which will then translate into far higher Spot U3O8 prices as a bidding war erupts in the Spot market.⚔ᥧ9;

Kazatomprom has heaved a rock into the global nuclear fuel industry waters and now we watch the ripples spread across the world.
....................

does anyone think that this announcement from kaz, is this bull markets cigar lake moment - those that remember, the cigar lake flood announcement saw the price go parabolic and there wasn't even a shortage back then.

[someuwin] 14/1/2024 11:07

Ian Cowie @iancowie ·1m

It’s a no-no for many but #nuclear power is the only way to #energy independence and #netzero so I am buying #uranium via #investment trusts and Yellow Cake #YCA ⁦

[bountyhunter] 13/1/2024 08:49

Apologies if already posted..





"shortages of sulphuric acid"!

[7kiwi] 13/1/2024 00:28

Not quite C$100m. But raised about US$56m, bought 100,000 lbs and now has $62.9m on hand for further purchases. Plenty of cash to buy more lbs, if they're available. Stage is set for further appreciation in the U3O8 price. NAV almost $6.6bn.

[yupawiese2010] 12/1/2024 23:09

John Quakes
@quakes99

⚡️@Sprott Physical #Uranium Trust ticker $U.UN on #Canada's TSX traded over 6.6 Million shares today across all Canadian exchanges🔊 with its ATM running hot.🔥ㇽ5;💵 Appears #SPUT may have raised over C$100M💰312;🐂 with Goldman Sachs biggest net buyer of 1.23M shares worth C$39M!😲

[7kiwi] 12/1/2024 19:19

Spot up again to $103.5 mid-price. Let's see where it ends up when the market closes.