Xps Pensions Share Discussion Threads

[the big fella] 17/4/2012 08:44

Yes, PJM seem to be doing really well. What once looked an expensive purchase is turning out to be a good piece of business.

[hamidahamida] 17/4/2012 07:58

Great news substantial contract win with indication of more of the same from pj media side of xps

[pezza4] 17/4/2012 07:10

have you seen the rns deal with Vodafone, good news.

[highball10] 17/4/2012 07:08

Thease must start to move north soon

[the big fella] 12/4/2012 20:37

I suspect we will only get a trading statement if results will be materially different from projections. I personally expect us to be in line or maybe marginally ahead.

[santangello] 12/4/2012 20:27

Trading statement due early June.

That will obviously paint a more definitive picture, which one would expect to be bullish?

Expect buyers/traders to add into the weeks preceding the said update.

I am now totally lumped up with XPS and happy.

[larry335] 12/4/2012 18:42

Please stop mentioning ASOS :-(

[longshanks] 12/4/2012 11:50

that would be nice...

[dick grasso] 11/4/2012 15:16

The asos of electronics TBF?

[the big fella] 11/4/2012 15:09

It is interesting that Samsung recently decided to pull some of its products from Amazon. They were not happy with the way Amazon were presenting their products and were also not happy with Amazon pricing.
Clearly Amazon is the Global retailer. I am not suggesting Expansys will eclipse Amazon for one moment, but what Samsung's decision tells me is there is room for a Global specialist electrical retailer, that can present manufacturers products in a way which pleases, as well as being flexible on pricing. But outside of Amazon you have a whole bunch of domestic retailers in each country or may cover a few countries, but no truly global electrical retailer (Amazon apart). Expansys are looking to file that void.

[saucepan] 11/4/2012 14:26

An interesting 'contrarian' perspective, longshanks, on today's RNS.

I must admit, however, it prompted me to build my position - so I have been adding.

The importance I take out of the RNS is the growing critical mass and becoming a genuine global player - which I think is crucial for a business like this.

EXPANSYS.COM now operates direct eCommerce stores in 37 of the top 50 online consumer markets worldwide.

[longshanks] 11/4/2012 13:59

Much as I appreciate updates like this - they don't do much else for me.

Yes - we have extended our operations to even more countries. Anticipated benefits include increased turnover and development as a strategic partner of global electronics brands - and yes - ummm - that's great to know.

However news items like this often raise alarm bells for me; what is the purpose of this RNS other than to notify us of this "exciting" development? Could be nothing - it is only an alarm - but I tend to err on the side of caution with AIM investments and this sounds like another "jam tomorrow" promise to bolster up the lack of fruit flavoured spread currently on the table.

It would have been nice to have had a bullish trading update to work alongside this to give us confidence that their strategy is working nicely in their existing markets.

I remain long given the potential but I will be watching closely.

[santangello] 11/4/2012 13:03

Can you imagine the EPS growth, never mind p/e ratio of this gem of a company when the income stream announced today flows in?

Lowest rated company in the sector, and an RNS like that explodes into the public domain.

Very interesting times ahead.

[the big fella] 11/4/2012 09:37

Yes, a positive development,new markets will help drive growth.

[5dally] 11/4/2012 09:11

Good progress I see :-) IMO

[dick grasso] 10/4/2012 15:04

Thanks for that yasX.

[yasx] 05/4/2012 18:46

I have just read this thread - TheBigMan, or whatever his acronym is, suggests they offer no target - what he fails to mention is that although there is no formal headline target ascribed, the note (which has been out for two weeks)clearly puts a valuation forward, based on various assumptions. In brief, they value the company on a sum of the parts basis at 4.7p, but a discount of 20% is applied to this figure. However, they also suggest an alternative theoretical model based on various assumptions being met going forward, and based on that they declare a sum of the parts figure of 11p to which a 20% discount is applied.

Of course, that all depends on how the company fares and if the growth objectives assumed translate into reality . But, there is scope for growth and I keep saying it, those at the helm are a capable bunch, in spite of the difficult retail environment.

dyor - my views only.

[yasx] 05/4/2012 09:39

All,

Further my last post here, we have seen Singer initiate and Cenkos has published an update a couple of weeks ago with new estimates.

In brief, both highlight the fact that this is trading on very low multiples (especially when you strip out cash), and Singer describe it as the lowest valuation in the sector. EPS for year to 4/12 of 0.28 and reasonable growth forecasts going forward. Cenkos reckon 50% EPS growth over the next two years is possible.

The Singer note is fairly detailed, and runs to no less than 33 pages.

I remain long, and am looking for 3p.

dyor.

[saucepan] 04/4/2012 18:07

TBF: thanks for the info from me, too; much appreciated. It all sounds very encouraging.

[dick grasso] 04/4/2012 17:52

No worries TBF, thanks for keeping us updated.

[the big fella] 04/4/2012 17:46

I only have a hard copy. It's 30 pages of small text - so an extremely detailed note covering all aspects of the business. That is why I say it is a stake in the sand. Upgrade notes tend to be fairly brief in their nature.

[larry335] 04/4/2012 17:20

Thanks BF,
The opinion on the LSE board seems to be that the profit forecast will be far exceeded (as Hami also suggests in his thread header). I guess they are going off recent contracts and the director share buys. £8m has been suggested. The share price may drop in the meantime but with a good final year report the company turnaround will be confirmed to the market and even with just the £4.5m we could see a short term re-rating to at least 3p.
Anyway, I won't be selling soon but if it drops below 1.9 I will be tempted to add more :-P
BTW, nice rise on GBO today :-)

[dick grasso] 04/4/2012 17:07

Well the market likes upgrades and I feel quietly confident here that increased revenue will reflect in the bottom line. Have you a copy or link to a copy TBF? Thanks

[the big fella] 04/4/2012 17:01

Actually the note has been published. I haven't looked in great detail and there isn't a target price quoted. However it is a very bullish note sales growth over the next few years penciled in at Apr 2012- 30%, Apr 2013 -16.1%, Apr 2012 -15.1%. Cash flow improving from 4.9 mil to 8.1 mil over the period.
Eps growth forecasted at 20% per annum over the period.
This appears to be a stake in the sand, with furthwer notes to follows, most probably following the release of their results. I our small cap fundy has spoken with MM and he believes there is plenty of room here for upgrades.

[the big fella] 04/4/2012 14:32

These have fallen 15% - 20% over the last couple of weeks. I am not sure anything has actually changed in that period. It is probably worth reminding ourselves that they recently appointed Singer Capital and the significance of this should not be overlooked. With all due respect to Cenkos, they had not provided coverage to any degree and there is currently no forward guidance out there.
Matthew McEachran at Singer Capital is a highly regarded analyst covering the digital retail space. The fact that he is to commence coverage gives a strong guidance that they will hit this year's numbers at least – 4.5mil PBT (EPS of a touch over 0.3p so a historic PE of 6) .
I had been told Singer's note was due to be out in a couple of weeks. Clearly that didn't happen, but it will. I expect he will put out coverage for the next year and beyond. Clearly he would want to be able to build in some form of growth for next year. My guess would be 20-25% leaving scope for upgrade.
If management can deliver, then the top end valuations for internet retailers can be 1x sales or PE of 25. With 25%+ growth over the next few years will see these priced at a multiple of today's share price.
Any fall in share price is frustrating, and hindsight is a wonderful thing. However if one concentrates on the facts, there is a good growth story here which has largely gone unnoticed.