Xps Pensions Share Discussion Threads

[longshanks] 08/3/2012 09:35

TBF - I did try to warn people about embracing yassus minimus too tightly.

He has a fair brain - and often has good tips to follow - but his results are not any better than mine as far as I can tell. We are both currently long on XPS - but he is only following momentum for a short term gain(as evidenced by the way he discounts any negative research from Saucepan) whereas I am looking for a longer term return and not just 100%. I welcome both bull and bear points as for me investment is a more serious business than just listening to my own voice.

There are whole bulletin boards dedicated to both the aggrandising and diminishment of yassus minimus and I will go there from now on if I feel the need to comment further.

For now - anyone that wants to see yassus minimus' bull case they can read it in depth on the other thread. He makes some good points but be warned - he only presents the bull argument. He tends to write countless items on these threads. You might think that he is doing it because he has a lot to say about the company or perhaps because it is some manifestation of some form of OCD; however it is not. He writes so much to try and get the thread count to the top of the applicable ADVFN tables so as others are drawn to come look and perhaps buy into the story. As such - there is little point trying to converse with him because a) he is not interested and b) you are actually helping him realise his goal.

I am expecting the price of XPS to continue to weaken a little and will be buying more if we get down below 2p but will also be buying more if the price holds for another month or so.

[yasx] 07/3/2012 16:27

If you wish to equate the facts with 'defensiveness', that is a matter for you.

I merely point out that your assertions were baseless - you repeated them today even though I explained the same to you several days ago. I am glad you now accept this.

Thank you for wishing me luck - but I tend to rely on analysis, not luck.

Hope that helps.

[saucepan] 07/3/2012 16:15

YasX: I think your defensiveness and aggression is a bit over the top, which is a pity as you make some very good points. I was not rubbishing the Company, just expressing some reservations that countered some of the many positives, which you yourself point out.

I made about 30% on Expansys in the past three months and wanted to move on as XPS is not the only attractive fish in the sea.

However, I am no longer invested here. Let's draw a line under the discussion and good luck to you.

[yasx] 07/3/2012 14:12

But some still seek to dismiss the achievements - any evidence to substantiate their claims? Well, a 'crude' review of a forum with dated comments. Well, if that is research, i suggest they haed back to the checkout since the queue is getting longer..

[yasx] 07/3/2012 14:11

That was then...what now?

Well, things are in even better shape now, with the overseas markets generating good growth and new partnerships looking like the way forward. A strong managmeent team, restructtruing of UK operations to save costs and improve management systems and focus, and Directors showing confidence by buying in the market. A few other points to note:


*In the final quarter, retail revenues were up by 30% (yoy), and markets in Asia and US continue to be very buoyant, offsetting lacklustre performance in UK/Europe.

* Cash of around £4 mln, and there is in place access to a debt facility if needed for purposes of generating growth by acquisitions, with existing cash reserves for driving the existing business to generate organic growth.

* Cenkos forecasting FY12 PBT of around £4.5 mln.

* Over the past couple of years the business has been dramatically transformed, and they are now seeing the benefits of the changes undertaken. Revenues have been growing sharply, and they are securing partner contracts in the regions more recently explored (first half turnover in 2011 was up by over 40% compared to the same period last year).

* With DSNS they have made a lot of progress in the US, with deals with the likes of TMobile. This market is very large and the opportunities for growth are outstanding.

They have recently announced a contract with the ICT Ministry in Qatar. I reckon it is only a matter of time before similar partnerships are agreed with other entities of a simlar nature.

* Anthony Catterson uinderstand sthe market very well and has an admirable track record in this business. Since coming on board, he has managed to blend the attributes of the dofferent arms (PJM, DSNS and Expansys) very effectively and things are now in place for rapid growth, particularly in overseas markets.

dyor

[yasx] 07/3/2012 14:10

Last summer I dismissed the concerns of various bears who suggested the future for the company was bleak, shortly after the Japanese disaster. Everything I declared at the time was eventually proven right, not least the 3p target (it stood at thet time at 1p). Given the correction in the market it headed back to 1.5p and I recently declared going long again at that price, with another 3p target. I think that is just a matter of time...


yasX - 28 May'11 - 22:29 - 945 of 1231 edit


All,

I indicated earlier I would say a little more in relation to Expansys given the claims by some so called experts that it is heading for the graveyard – it is already up over 10% since the gracious and sagacious chap suggested it the other day.

Now, the clearly deluded bears have not done their homework. One suggests he has been looking at it for over two years – I suggest he head to the opticians. But being a sagacious chap, I am not one to dismiss the concerns highlighted by the bears without offering an appropriate and robust counter. So here goes:

Bear Concern 1: The Japan crisis has destroyed any chance of growth in that region

I have already discussed the issue the other day. In the short term the proportion of the business derived from Japan in the overall scheme of things is relatively small, though it was clearly been earmarked as a growth driver in the years ahead. It goes without saying that consumers have reigned back spending since the disaster and a glance ot consumer confidence in the latest month suggests an abysmal outlook. It could take as long as 18 months to get things back on track. But as they indicated in the last update (with sales in Asia up by nearly 200% largely on the back of Japan) once things stabilise then the tremendous opportunities can be taken advantage of.

The Japanese telecom market has only recently been deregulated and so the opportunity is at the nascent stage. They have partnered with JCI and have established a good relationship.

But despite the difficulties highlighted about Japan, the deterioration as a result of the climatic disaster is offset significantly by robust growth in the web business in China, Singapore and Australia. So the view held by Expansys that international markets shall be the ones that drive growth in the months and years ahead is still intact given the response from these markets and the growth thus far in the US as well. The potential in China is considerable when you consider that the online consumer market in China is still not very mature, with more people now gaining access to broadband.

The US mobile market is where the UK market was some five years ago, and this represents another strong growth area. Expansys have made a great start here, with sales up nearly 50% and the recent appointment of Tim Eltze, who really understands the US business, to oversee operations there is a key appointment.

Bear Concern 2: XPS retail offering and site is poor:

Well, they have recently overhauled everything and the new site is said to be considerably improved. Now, I am not one who is well positioned to judge these things since I don't have the vaguest idea what makes customers who see these things tick. But I can say that based on assessments undertaken by Expansys themselves it seems that customers perceive the new site as being much better. They look at the design effectiveness by considering all sorts of customer contact statistics and conversion rates are probably better as a result.

Bear Concern 3: EPS is heading down:

Well, the level of competition is difficult and is contributing to eroding margins, especially in the UK. The dynamics of the industry cannot be changed, but what they can do is improve themselves in an attempt to arrest the slide. They have taken on a new Senior Category Manager in an operational move to work with suppliers as well as building and raising the brand profile.

The issue of margins is a concern, but absent formal guidance to the contrary from the company I am comfortable with 2011 earnings forecast of around 0.3p.

Bear Concern 4: Organic growth is insufficient:

Well, I have already discussed above the issue of growth in the various regions. But I suspect there might be acquisitions down the line to both support and enhance the business. In terms of having the funds for these, well, I seem to recall they have in place a debt facility at a competitive rate that they can tap if necessary.



Bear Case 5: Directors not buying at these depressed prices, especially Jones given he though his businesses were worth more when he sold them a year ago than the entire worth of the Group now based on the EV.

Well, this is a fair point from the bears. It is rich for Jones to flog DSNS and PJ Media to holders with a highly dilutive raising at 5p and then not having some shares himself at well below 2p. I cannot speak for the Directors, but thus far they have not been buying, so there is an element of caution. I do not think they are, or have been in a closed period in the last few weeks, but I think (but do not know) results are due around late July so they might soon be in a closed period fairly shortly. It would be good to see some Director purchases in advance of that, but don't count on it.



So, in summary, there are risks, but there is some cause for optimism given where the price sits. I am long and looking for 3p in due course.

Dyor – my views only.

[saucepan] 07/3/2012 13:41

I don't want to labour this point too much - but it has been challenged as fiction just now on the XPS thread I thought we had agreed was dormant.

I think most will agree the iPad2 is one of the hottest gadgets on the planet at the moment.

This is from the Xpansys UK webpage:

(

Note the date of the comments (i.e. the most recent nearly a year old!!), which are also unfavourable.



Note, also, that there appears to be not a single customer review. I have just compared this to Amazon, where there are 82 reviews for the same product.



All I am saying is that this did disappoint and concern me. A key product does not appear to be flying off the shelves and customer satisfaction with their experience appears to be negative - hardly a recommendation for XPS. If I was the Company, I would get the support forum threads removed, because they must be putting other potential buyers off. They would me.

This was just a crude piece of market research but the findings are not encouraging. Perhaps the global sites, and Asia in particular, are doing much better?

[yasx] 07/3/2012 13:24

It might be the case that plums do not know how to use the website - but this company cannot cater for those with single digit IQ's..

[yasx] 07/3/2012 13:22

I note that on the thread dedicated to the mendacious they remark that the website offering is uttelry useless and that this is not conducive to generating growth.

But we all know that mendacity leads to all sorts of twaddle - the facts are clear and cannot be disputeed, as follows - in the final quarter, retail revenues were up by a third (yoy), driven by, you guessed it, growth in brand websites.

But why let the facts get in the way of fiction.

dyor

[the big fella] 07/3/2012 13:05

I will ignore your snide remarks.

[yasx] 07/3/2012 12:11

All,

I suspect Singer will shortly initiate coverage - the analyst Mark Photiadis is starting to get a little attention and is quite reasonable.

I remain long Expansys.

dyor

[yasx] 07/3/2012 12:09

The Big Fella,

I do not care what you are interested in - if that plum LS appears on here following me around I am entitled to offer any comment I think appropriate.

Now, unlike you, I know a thing or two about Expansys. Given you think LS might have something to offer suggests you do not have the faintest idea.

Off you go, into the pond.

Anyway, I am not sure why I appeared on this thread since the other is far more appropriate.

[saucepan] 07/3/2012 08:41

Thanks for your thoughts, longshanks. You make some good points. I find that with some companies it is easier to get a feel for things than others. My initial investment decisions are usually based on forecast and achieved turnover, profit, and eps growth patterns. I look for companies with low P/Es and PEGs and go for those that I think are undervalued.

If I make a quick 20% or 30%, (e.g. within three to six months) I often do bank the profits and move on to companies with similar profiles that have yet to make similar moves, but look like they could be starting to go for it. When stocks have made moves of about 20% or 30, they often pause for breath for a few months. In other words, I think the odds of churning the same amount of funds two or three times a year and making say, 25% two or three times, are better than holding and hoping to make 75% a year on only one stock.

I have found it to be a strategy that has worked quite well for me over the years. Of course, it does not always work and some stocks continue to run without pausing.

However, stocks I do judge that I have a better understanding of, and am hence more confident about, I do hold much longer term. Judges Scientific is a good example of that(a great RNS today, by the way). I have had a large position for a couple of years, only trading in and out a small proportion of my holding. GBO is another I have held for a good while (though in various amounts). GAH and SAL I have held for more than a year, but next updates will be important in determining whether I continue to hold.

Of recent purchases - WSG, DLM and TRAP I am regarding very much as tuck-away stocks.

But yes, maybe I do trade too much! It is a question I often ask myself and try to evaluate. I am reasonably convinced that my current practice has the edge on buy and hold but I am still hoping to do better.

As to XPS: there was a lot I liked about the story (and still do like), but there were some things that did not sit quite right for me, including the apparent lack of activity on the UK Expansys website in relation to iPad sales and the critical comments on that page from buyers more than a year old (which I mentioned in a post on here last week).

I hope XPS continues to do well for you and that your patience will lead to commensurate rewards. I also expect that will be the case.

[longshanks] 07/3/2012 07:48

Well done on your profit - but I wouldn't say the lack of reply is specifically poor investor relations - small companies have limited resources and for all you know there could be any number of reasons for not replying.

I get so many emails myself - it is not unusual for me to ignore some that don't serve too much purpose. There are some companies where I have had great communications and they have been great investments; equally I have had some with great comms who have been disasters and needless to say some with horrific comms that have turned into little gold mines. Damaging for your ego if it is your email that gets ignored - but you need to be a bit bigger than that before damning a company.

If you really want to chat - you can easily phone the company and speak to someone. I have done that with XPS and spent a good five minutes clarifying issues I had; needless to say I am staying.

Anyway, do you ever stay in any share any length of time Saucepan? From my experience you typically sell once you are in the money rather than hold for longer term gains.

[saucepan] 06/3/2012 11:22

As mentioned above, I wrote to the Company last week with some comments and queries. I felt it was a courteous and very reasonable email, among other things with constructive suggestions. I have not received any acknowledgement or reply.

Demonstration of such poor investor relations is a failed test as far as I am concerned. I have decided to take my profits here and move on.

I hope XPS continues to do well for the rest of you.

[the big fella] 02/3/2012 14:34

Yas / LS

I suspect you bother can offer somthing to discussions here, but I am not interested in petty bickering or points scoring so please take it elsewhere.

[longshanks] 02/3/2012 14:17

See what I mean.

I don't normally rise to the challenge - but seeing as he is strutting here - I had better explain some of his cryptic comments.

Last year I saw a 1000% return on shares I had bought in AGL at 8p. It was natural that I would be interested in anyone offering an opportunity to place a PUT so as to maintain my gains without having to sell at 90p. Yassus Minimus appeared and, to his credit, accurately called a retrace from the highs (not rocket science). I asked him how he was able to short as the stock had been declared "unborrowable". He refused - calling me "parochial" for not being as knowledgeable as himself. I don't believe he did actually short the stock and simply wanted to "call it down" to an entry price he was interested in; naturally he is now LONG on AGL....you couldn't make it up.

Anyway, Saucepan and others will know me as a seasoned and rational investor from other threads. Yassus minimus may have some fans but I do not include myself in that list of misguided individuals.

Anyone investing should do so with both eyes open - there are no guaranteed returns on any stock as most readers of this thread will know. I am open to both bull and bear arguments at any time so long as they are well argued. What I can't tolerate are arguments that are purely engineered to satisfy one's own selfish purposes. Yassus minimus always talks with a forked tongue so anyone reading him should be careful.

I will leave it at that. Like I said, he claims to have me filtered but I know better.

[yasx] 02/3/2012 14:04

Before he clutters this thread, I cheerfully suggest readers filter his contributions. Above all esle, do not follow his lead - he is bound to get it wrong. I jest not.

[yasx] 02/3/2012 14:02

Saucepan,

Glad to have enlightened readers - something that comes naturaly to me.

Incidentally, I see Longplank has appeared here - he has a habit of following me around and did not know how to short a stock with little borrow. When I refused to assist him, he went long. i told him that at 91p that stock was going to 60p or so. It did - it hurts him I am sure...

If you do not know what you are doing, then do not contribute. But those like Longpants prefer to clutter the boards expressing their disenchantment and bitterness.

Incidentally, if Longplank goes long this stock, that will make me question my stance. He is well known for calling everything wrong, though I have not seen his contributions over the past few months given he is on the filtered register. But he follows me around and has done for quite some time.

He needs me, but I do not need those of his ilk. You see, I know what I am doing.

dyor

[longshanks] 02/3/2012 13:44

yasX - 2 Mar'12 - 12:40 - 170 of 172

Anyway, I will be back when it hits 3p, which I expect it to...

Au revoir.

-------------------

Do you know what yassus minimus will say when it gets to 3p?

Here is a hint:



yasX - 24 Feb'12 - 15:31 - 15033 of 15237

Incidentally, i bought a few more Expansys earlier this afternoon..I reckon I will once again offload at 3p in due course.

------------------

BTW - he claims to have me filtered - but he can't help peeking. Lol.

All have been warned. Pump and Dump is his style and this leopard has far too many spots.

[saucepan] 02/3/2012 13:39

Thanks for the posts today. There has been some very informative discussion.

[yasx] 02/3/2012 12:40

Anyway, I will be back when it hits 3p, which I expect it to...

Au revoir.

[yasx] 02/3/2012 12:39

Time and again I gave them the heads up...


yasX - 22 Jun 2011 - 13:19:56 - 6269 of 14369

Naturally, and given the outlook statement in the recent XPS update, forecasts have been lowered.

For the y/e to Apr 2012, adj. PBT is now £4.5 mln from over £7 mln (as we know from the recent update, figures for this year are for an expectation of £3.4 mln from a previous forecast of £3.8 mln.

With an EPS forecast of just shy of 0.3, well, if they can maintain the margins, then the rating is not a demanding one. There is also some 5 mln in cash. This looks cheap.

But of greater concern to me is that although the bulk of the revenue comes from XPS, this hardly contributes to operating profit, which is almost solely derived from DSNS.

In the year to Apr. 2011, Expansys revenue is expected to be £67 mln, whereas DSNS and PJM figures are £11 mln and £2mln respectively. Yet, operating profit expectations (which were set out in the update) for Expansys and PJM are a mere 0.5 mln, whereas DSNS operating profit is of the order of £4.6 mln.

As for margins, well, healthy at DSNS and reasonable at PJM, but virtually nil at XPS.

dyor - these are my views only.