Xpediator Share Discussion Threads

[gleach23] 03/12/2018 14:58

Wanted to take a punt on these last week but was spooked when offered 10k @ 37 when spread was 37-40. Didn't press the buy button for 10k @ 34 earlier today but have just taken the plunge @ 34.9 after seeing the delayed sale of 65k @ 32 and a subsequent apparent shortage of available stock. Can't get a quote for buying 500 shares now so hopefully that 65k was the clearance of an overhang...that's the theory anyway!

[buffetteer] 30/11/2018 01:14

What a load of tripe . My mate has built a £100m business in this sector in 20 yes with a few thousand capital , a phone and an office . How ? Little capital required and contacts . There are hundreds of similar businesses in the U.K. and many make great tmreturns with little capital . That makes them valuable . XPD are very diversified , multi country , multi discipline , 5000 customers and new unique offering in eShop . Bjutibg on 7x and trading on 10-18x creates shareholde value . This rollup strategy will likely lead to multi-bag investment in the next 2-3 years as the shares are currently trading on 9x Dec 2018 and 7x Dec 2019. Since companies sell for 15x plus in this sector (DKV & K&N 20x+) there is a good margin of safety . The shares are worth c75p now - 60% upside . Let’s compare notes in Dec 2019 .

[mattjos] 29/11/2018 20:15

just cannot get comfortable with this operation. Have tried to use their international services but they are not at all competitive on pricing as compared to K&N & other 'peers'. Several times the phones there are not even answered so, just gave up even trying to do business with them.

Saying that, it is very true that freight forwarders are stronger and more cost competitive in areas where they have big physical presence and regular traffic so, we may simply never have asked for a quote where they have that local strength.

Great Bear was due to float as an exit for the founders. I know one of the then Directors and was keen on that. Was a much better prospect than this and & had grown rather more organically but, Culina bought them before the IPO.

I don't like these Buy & Build business models, funded by debt/equity funding. Particularly in this sector which is tight margins.

You need huge scale to compete and grow in this sector but, getting there takes a long time and a lot of cash & it's all tight, tight margins on the way … a couple of left-field events and you're in the merde.
Cant bring myself to pull the trigger and buy any here but wish others ell.

[isf7boa] 29/11/2018 19:22

Heres my notes from their Mello pitch;

New FD Stuart talked on his backgound and past numbers (particularly last 6 months). At this stage they have good visibility on final 6 month period. A lot of contingency planning by clients aided by Xpd.

Stephen talked on Brexit and acquisitions.
Insti shareholder are happy they are not dumping stock.

Obviously still a lot up in the air for final Brexit outcome. Planning for worst case.

Import Services Ltd acq is key to deliver results in 2nd half as its not going to be impacted by Brexit (handles International trade)
It has 40k sq meters of warehousing in Southampton port and they are negotiating for additional 20k sq meters, planned for 2021
It's integration into the group is on plan.

In Brexit worst case scenario (lorrys backed up at ports) any costs resulting from that (delays or paperwork) would be passed onto client.
Management have pre single market experience of European customs clearance and forwarding regimes.

E forwarding key growth angle and will need investment and but have margin pressure - although will be able to mitigate with reduced forwarding cost and scale advantages - net margin should increase (???).
They seemed to hint changes in the mix of load sizes had hit margins.

Other new acq Regional Express - main client is Amazon who in turn are bringing clients to Xpd looking to plug into global e fullfillment services provided to Amazon.

Pall-Ex Romania still growing well.

Affinity Transport Services - fuel card now expanding into Bulgaria. Involved in leasing trucks also.
Their driver database increasing in size and value.

In warehousing / logistics business more investment required for automation.

On the buy and build front Airfreight could be next area. Very important to have scale here. Many tens or hundreds of thousands of consignments required to have some pricing power.
Current number of consignments is no where near this level. They are looking at a number of candidates.

Despite talk of acq there is good organic growth - 50% of total growth rate.

Questions about

EshopWeDrop - if for example a customer living in Lithuania can order something from Amazon/Ebay Uk and have it delivered to them and not pay VAT liable if item was purchased in Lithuania. Is this not circumventing local tax rules? No VAT liable in this situation under EU law.

Stephen is 63. When will he retire? No plans to. Still got plenty he wants to achieve with the firm. He has good team behind him.

I am a current holder and am tempted to pick up a few more in light of recent share price drag.

Worst case Brexit I believe is already priced in.
But not overly keen for them to expand into Air or Sea freight yet.

[davr0s] 29/11/2018 18:50

It's all nonsense this buy sell thing. It's just a computer guess wrt to the bid offer spread at the transaction time. For every purchase there is a sell but people spend their lives on BB trying to analyse every trade. What's important is whether the people selling are willing to sell at lower levels and vv. In this case the answer is currently yes which is all you need to know

[clanger66] 29/11/2018 18:42

Not all the trades on ADVFN that are marked as buys are actual buys. Notice the biggest print of the day of 20k shares done around 9:33 was marked as a buy. However this was reported a hour late by the "market maker" and at that point the price had dropped so gives a false impression. Bit pathetic it seems that a trade valued around £8k should be reported so late but it's above the minimum size.

[daz] 29/11/2018 17:55

It's clear there is a line of stock, probably coming from a forced seller, being dribbled out onto the market because the the liquidity is so low. How much is left is anyone's guess.
As Simso says, the shares are very cheap, so I think a small cap fund will hoover up the stake at some point, so worth checking the daily volume

[auldmart] 29/11/2018 16:17

I also don't understand why the price has continued to fall when the majority of transactions appear to be 'buys'. Maybe it's just my ignorance of how the market really works.

[auldmart] 29/11/2018 15:59

I never try to catch a 'falling knife' but am sorely tempted with XPD. If you believe the data on Stockopedia this has to be a bargain. My only concern is the short time it's been public and if there are likely to be any surprises.

[simso] 29/11/2018 15:51

I saw them at Mello, talked to them afterwards. I was really reassured and happy with progress. I bought 15k of that 115k volume today at 39p, thinking it an incredible bargain. DOH!

[jon123] 29/11/2018 13:28

just the brexit effect i think the market don't believe the companies line that it won't effect business when project fear is in full swing

[insideryou] 29/11/2018 13:23

What am i missing here. The half year report was solid. Good expectation and a hike in dividend? Anyone?

[daz] 26/11/2018 22:11

I went to the Mello presentation. XPD seems like a very reliable low risk business, they are nearly at the year end and there have been no warnings, so I expect them to meet expectations.
They are likely to do further acquisitions and the CEO said there was no shortage of candidates coming across his desk, so that should lead to growth.
He had been asked many times during the day about the fall in the share price. He said it had been on low volume, which if you look at today's trades is true but maybe he knew something but wasn't letting on.

[jon123] 26/11/2018 16:11

lol they didn't do a good job by the looks of the share price lol

[wilsonst1] 26/11/2018 16:04

Anyone catch them at Mello today

[death by donut] 26/11/2018 13:02

Really? 41p?

[buffetteer] 25/11/2018 17:10

You must be joking . There are literally hundreds of competitors and several huge ones . They have thousands of customers and only 30% of turnover in U.K. price has fallen with market and is low too cheap so long as they make 4.5p this year

[haroldthegreat] 23/11/2018 11:51

New competitor being formed.by Eemergevest merging several of its investments .is this behind the share price fall? However if xpd has survived with all the current competition the companies that would be hit are the larger current competitors.

[advfn_sales] 21/11/2018 16:55

Here is your chance to meet with Xpediator:

Using this unique discount code, ADVFN25, you will be able to get £25 off at Mello London 2018, a 2 day investor conference from the 26th – 27th November 2018 at the Clayton Hotel, Chiswick, London.



Tickets are normally priced at £99 for two days and £79 for one.

Type in ADVFN25 as the discount code.

Many Thanks and take advantage of this premium offer.

See you there.

[davidosh] 18/11/2018 22:06

Here is the full two day programme schedule for MelloLondon including Xpediator



It is jam packed full of about 75 company presentations, lots of top quality speakers and panel sessions plus workshops to help with investment style and techniques etc.

The pre event fun starts on the Sunday evening with a dinner and investor quiz hosted by John Lee but the main conference begins on Monday 26th November at 9am through to Tuesday 27th in the evening so do come and join us as there are still 97 tickets left...



See you there.

[davr0s] 31/10/2018 19:15

Inefficient share - not correlated with general market moves. Trend broken in this one for the moment. One of my bigger winners for 2018 but currently not holding.... But watching