Xlmedia Share Discussion Threads

[hatfullofsky] 11/6/2018 13:40

Lots of selling at 124, MM having some fun. I'm looking for 150 in the short term

[superadams] 11/6/2018 13:16

FD just in for £60 k s worth.

[hatfullofsky] 11/6/2018 12:36

Wasn't there a thread some weeks ago stating XLM have a very good underlying business anyway and could turn the lights off and we would still be generating significant cashflow.

[simso] 11/6/2018 12:32

The post MIFID2 world with no access to Research makes such Profit warnings harder to evaluate. FWIW, I share my own estimates:

I assume Net Profit of $29m v LY $30.3 given the "marginally lower adj EBITDA" comment. This is EPS $0.132 (£0.10) so the P/E is 12.5 at the current price. I estimate closing 2018 Cash of $80m (£59m), based on deals completed to date. Obviously that would change as more deals are done....but then hopefully so will the EPS. Ex Cash P/e less than 10. Given cash generation and balance sheet strength, I presume the divi will be unchanged and now yield 5% at 125p.

I remember all too well when another Israeli company also related to the "Gambling Sector" warned in December 16 because of EU Regulatory uncertainty, the price dropped from 500p to 300p...and I sold. They are called Plus500, and have risen more than 500% since that point. Not a mistake I want to repeat by selling out here without properly reflecting on it.

[rivaldo] 11/6/2018 12:23

More from Berenberg FYI (I'm sure the earlier poster said their new target price was 250p - anyway, here it's 225p):

"XLMedia (XLM) has released a trading statement this morning which indicates that its 2018 results will now be marginally lower than those in 2017A. This is largely the result of a number of regulatory oneoffs. While in the long run these favour XLM, they have created a negative short-term impact. Reflecting these, we reduce our estimates by c12%. With the business model still solid, the company accelerating its efforts in the US and the company in evaluation stages for a number of deals, we would view a pullback in the shares as an entry point for longer-term investors. XLM shares trade on c12.9x cash-adjusted P/E (16.5x normalised) with a c6% FCF yield. We remain buyers but move our one-year price target to 225p."

[oneillshaun] 11/6/2018 12:04

Rivaldo - Point 2 is an interesting change, some smaller companies may feel like this is a good step but the bigger players in the industry are moving to CPA models, it make way more sense for the operator long term.

[rivaldo] 11/6/2018 11:32

The CEO's spending another £305,000 on shares this morning is a pretty strong signal.

Interesting comments from Berenberg having reined in their price target to 250p:



"House broker Berenberg, as you would expect, remains fully on board. It comments: ‘A number of changes in the past six months have created some short-term pressures for XLMedia.

‘1) New consumer protection rights have forced operators to adapt their guidelines on how terms and conditions (T&Cs) are advertised to customers. This has created one-off delays to some affiliate advertising practices.

‘2) Interim changes to XLM’s payment model (i.e. a switch by some operators to revenue share from cost per acquisition) create lower short-term revenues but greater opportunity in the long run.

‘3) XLM has selectively pruned some low-margin media revenue streams in an effort to refocus on higher-margin pushing work. The company is comfortable with a return to growth in 2019.’

Berenberg concludes: ‘With the business model still solid, the company accelerating its efforts in the US and the company in evaluation stages for a number of deals, we would view a pullback in the shares as an entry point for longer-term investors.’"

[calahan] 11/6/2018 11:32

Write-up by Graham Neary on SCVR.
hxxps://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-mon-11-june-2018-xlm-som-372104/

[oneillshaun] 11/6/2018 11:16

Santangello - you are not alone, i am back with a lot more shares than before and i have spent way less.

[malcolmmm] 11/6/2018 11:15

Sold these and 888 and Tap some time ago,imo they are risky with all the new privacy regulations Bought lots of Alpha Pharma a couple of weeks back. They have a new product just approved which is a game changer for them

[redchef] 11/6/2018 11:15

I like the commitment to giving 50%+ of profits to the shareholders. It makes for a very attractive div yld at this price

[santangello] 11/6/2018 10:50

Well, I've decided to start hoovering up at an average around 123p, looks a decent level to me.....with long intentions ?

[hatfullofsky] 11/6/2018 10:48

Any of you guys also in VLTY ? I have posted some research on that board.

[gargleblaster] 11/6/2018 10:44

well - this is the first time xlm have put a foot wrong as far as i can recall. The savage market reaction is the norm these days. I have thought for a while that the most attractive time to buy shares is after the share price has taken a beating - unless there is something fundamentally wrong with the business - which is not the case here imho.So I will definitely not be selling and will looking to pick up stock cheaply here. The company was already trading on a utility type per and now will be on a Graham ratio of less than one - so seriously cheap/ good divi etc.

[pshevlin] 11/6/2018 10:41

"Ory buys 256k"
guess I'll be keeping them for now. Bought a few back as well. Obviously WELL oversold.

[morph7] 11/6/2018 10:33

Ory buys 256k

[calahan] 11/6/2018 10:29

@ hatfullofsky - Yes it is the only indicator, but you said...

"244k at 120 was a Buy"
"Bid Offer at the time was 118 - 120 so was a buy"

And in so doing implying that it's a 100% certainty it was a buy, when no such certainty can be given. And precisely why others are not so certain it was a buy (even if you are).

[pazzuzu] 11/6/2018 10:28

I wouldn't be like that phlevin, I'm sure the hear no evil see no evil tribe would simply say that purely because he is in a closed period and on thr cusp of as huge acquisition. 'STRONG 2018 PIPELINE'

[hatfullofsky] 11/6/2018 10:21

Calahan - Agreed but it's the only indicator we have.

2 x 200k and 1 x 500k just gone through at 120p (buys again :-)

That's why the bid offer is now at 119 - 122

[pshevlin] 11/6/2018 10:19

If there is no management buying at these prices then I for one will be completely out by tomorrow. Better places for the cash.

[calahan] 11/6/2018 10:13

@ hatfullofsky - The trade data is just an automated system that best guesses a buy or sell based on the bid and offer at the time the trade goes through. It is in no way reliable, and when the share price is moving and fluctuating rapidly (which XLM was at the time) then it's next to useless as any sort of indicator. Plus AFAIK delayed trade reporting isn't factored in either. (so a large 120p trade could just as easily be a delayed sell as it was a buy).

The only ones who know for certain whether that trade was a buy or sell, or whether any trade is a buy or sell, are likely the MM's, the party involved in the trade, the AIM / LSE, and maybe someone else or some other body that I can't recall OTTOMH. But for us PI's there is no way of knowing for certain (although you can be far more sure of trade data with slow moving SP's and wide spreads).

[hatfullofsky] 11/6/2018 09:55

Scooper72 - Bid Offer at the time was 118 - 120 so was a buy

You can check by the Trades tab

[oneillshaun] 11/6/2018 09:23

brownie69 - Skybet removed affiliates purely as cost saving exercise prior to being sold, Skybet now under Stars are back in the affiliate market.

[brownie69] 11/6/2018 09:20

Personally I think there is little chance of management buying after this news.

No one has really focused on the underlying reasons for this disapointing news. Basically it seems to be regulatory risk. It seems to me that is a trend that is not likely to change in the foreseable future.

Big gambling operators are cutting the number of affiliates they use, or in Skybets case removing affiliates alltogether.