Xlmedia Share Discussion Threads

[nfs] 11/9/2017 14:10

Yes remarkable, he's advocating investment!

[busterdog2] 11/9/2017 13:42

It's a miracle...... Graham Neary's final sentence on XLM reads....

Leaving aside the ethics, it looks like a fine investment opportunity.

[the juggler] 11/9/2017 12:54

Big volume indeed, still hitting resistance at around 140p. I wonder what it will take to get us through there and make 140 the new support?

[cg8riverside] 11/9/2017 12:52

Volume approaching 5 million already today. Bodes well

[cg8riverside] 11/9/2017 12:51

Adam just a useful barometer I garnered from the Naked Trader Books for spotting value opportunities. More than one way to look at things

[rivaldo] 11/9/2017 12:22

XLM are covered by a variety of analysts, but the only comment I can find so far is this - I suppose the upside to this is that as numbers and opinions come through in the next few days this will bring additional buying interest to the story:



Extract:

"Analysts at Cenkos said the strong growth in the media arm was "demonstrative of management’s ability to continue to derive increasing returns from the underlying intangible asset base"."

[adamb1978] 11/9/2017 12:06

cg - why use a 10x PBT multiple?!? I don't think many (or any!) people use PBT-multiples as yard-sticks. Assuming a 20% tax rate, 10x PBT implies a 12.5x PE; I think that's somewhere around where they're trading at the moment.

I'm a long-term holder and happy that these can tick up 20% or so p.a.

[nimbo1] 11/9/2017 11:19

thanks for those thoughts. Assume there will be a roadshow after results and as they were v good should be some decent buying over the next few days.

[cg8riverside] 11/9/2017 11:18

Breakout coming. Momentum building with XLM. I think a damnbusting breakout is on the cards. They started the year with $35 million in cash. They then spend $28 million on acquisitions plus millions more on in-house tech etc. Roll on 6 months and we see $43 million in cash back on the balance sheet. Wow. Just wow. Incredible cash generation and blew away my expectations with regards to the cash pile. Now a case of rinse n repeat. Ory is building something momentous. The publishing side of the business alone is quite revolutionary.

[adamb1978] 11/9/2017 10:40

Been in these for 2.5 years now! Didn't realise it was so long. VWAP in-price is 65p....please to see another nice bump today!

[salchow] 11/9/2017 10:26

As far as the charts are concerned the first step is to maintain a break above 140p for a few days.

I first bought well below 100p and am very hopeful we will see a much higher price in the future.

[return_of_the_apeman] 11/9/2017 10:20

Chart indicates £1.60 in a month unless it breaks out

[oneillshaun] 11/9/2017 10:14

150p for xmas looking awesome, still way off where it should be this will hit 300p by 2019.

[nimbo1] 11/9/2017 10:04

just paid 139.5 and 141 for some so moving up.

[rock star] 11/9/2017 10:00

Just listened. All very promising.

[mount teide] 11/9/2017 09:52

Concluding comment - "Generally outlook for 2017 is extremely positive"

[return_of_the_apeman] 11/9/2017 09:20

Link to webcast

[eezymunny] 11/9/2017 09:08

Seems to that XLM is one where EPS numbers are largely irrelevant as there's (seemingly) always a fair bit of capex, so the discussion here is missing the point.

The cash flow is where to look IMO. If you take adj EBITDA ($22.9m) and deduct the main capex item "Acquisition of and additions to domains, websites, technologies and other intangible assets" ($4.8m), you get a better picture ($18.1m). Tax that at 25% and convert to UK£ and you get c. £10.4m cash flow. Annualise that, add a bit of H2 growth and you might get perhaps £21.5m for the year . Market cap c £275m here at 135p . Knock off say £30m for excess cash at year end for an EV of £245m.

So EV/cashflow perhaps 11-12. Not bad although I don't have much idea what they do, or how sustainable the profits :)

Rough numbers. DYOR!

[woodcutter] 11/9/2017 08:51

maffs the reason the admin costs are significantly higher that the comparable year is due to the D&A charge which, if you look in the cash flow statement is more than double last year so you need to make allowance for that.

woody

[return_of_the_apeman] 11/9/2017 08:41

Webcast at 9:30 today

[rivaldo] 11/9/2017 08:36

Maffs1, I've no idea. I've emailed Ory before about showing the adjusted EPS, but it doesn't seem to have filtered through.

The other frustrating thing is that they always issue rounded EPS figures, unlike other companies, which masks the true performance as I said before.

Oh well. I suppose it gives those who dig a little deeper a buying opportunity :o))

[return_of_the_apeman] 11/9/2017 08:25

Continuation of the chart uptrend, £1.50 due in short order

[maffs1] 11/9/2017 08:24

Thanks rivaldo, Any idea why they don't give us an adjusted eps figure in the results?

[rivaldo] 11/9/2017 08:19

Firstly, the EPS shown is the headline EPS, NOT the adjusted EPS which all the analysts use. We wait to see what the true, core EPS performance is.

Secondly, the headline EPS increase is masked by roundings. Headline EPS for H1 has increased very nicely to 5.7p, from 5.0p last year, a 14% increase.