Wt Physi Pallad Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 27/2/2022 23:43

2020?

Where's the Palladium thread gone?

[commander t] 20/1/2020 10:24

Yeah, I'll be banking some profits. Treat myself to an Ebike or something.

[stampylong trader] 20/1/2020 10:22

The BBC has an article on palladium's stellar rise. This might be an indicator of the top.

The drinks are on you Sir.



The price of the precious metal palladium has soared on the global commodities markets.

[commander t] 13/12/2019 03:47

Not selling yet.

[stampylong trader] 14/10/2019 08:25

Well done Commander T - drinks are on you. What are you going to spend the money on
?

[commander t] 26/11/2018 22:31

I think we might see some upside here. There might be a supply squeeze with the Russian trade blockade in Ukraine.

[traderabc] 01/3/2018 22:19

I've held this metal forever, PMC for the long term (15+ years) and this one tucked away in an ISA but its not looking so healthy, late January could well have been a mid term top.

This excellent article resonated with me, Bob has made accurate calls using COT's and sentiment indexes in the past, the 'Lunar call' was eerily accurate to the day. His book is defiantly worth reading for any contrarian.



Chart wise Palladium is getting very close to a support level failure (I think). Regarding the fundamental value of the metal, bitter experience says that aspect has little to no relevance to the price.

This thread is as quiet as a church mouse, anyone here (long palladium) at all?

TF?

Hello?

[traderabc] 24/9/2015 11:15

A useful chart would be the correlation of platinum to palladium. Rhodium is as cheap as chips, even with the VAT, it ought to be a buy soon.

A Pretty Sure Bet on Platinum

Bob Moriarty
Archives
Sep 24, 2015

Since just after the year 1900, platinum has held a premium to gold. First recognized as a metal by Italian scholar Julius Caesar Scaliger in 1557 during his travels in the Choco Region in Colombia, the Indians of the area believed the metal was young or undeveloped gold. There are stories of how the Spanish in Colombia used platinum nuggets as filler when casting brass cannon since they had nothing that would heat the metal to a melting point and considers the material waste.

Until discovery of platinum for use as a catalyst in oil refining in the very early 20th century the metal was little more than a novelty with little value. But once the utility of the metal became known platinum has almost always held a premium to gold. When gold rocketed to $875 an ounce in early 1980 platinum soared to nearly $1100 an ounce. Platinum peaked at $2250 in 2008 while gold didn’t peak until September of 2011 at $1923.

Gold went to a slight premium to platinum during the financial crisis of 2008 and then to a $150 premium to platinum in 2012. On Wednesday September 23 of 2015, gold managed to make a $203 premium to platinum for the highest spread in history.

For all the screams of anguish about how silver is the most manipulated commodity in world history; silver is down 70% from its high, rhodium is down 92% from its all time high. No one is harping about how rhodium is manipulated. Gold is down just over 42% from the all time high in 2011 but platinum is down 60% from its high. But all we hear is how gold is the most manipulated metal in history. Perhaps the whole “manipulation” issue is simply noise from guys trying to sell newsletters. No one is screaming about how platinum is manipulated. It’s a market, it goes up, it goes down.

I’ve said it before. Buy cheap, sell dear. In early August I wrote about how the CRB was the lowest in constant dollars in 59 years of being measured. While everyone and his brother was writing about how we were in deflation and commodities were tanking, I said that we were at a tradable low in commodities. The CRB promptly rose 15% as I had predicted. It will continue to rise.

If you go back 115 years in the history of gold vs platinum prices, platinum has never been this low before in comparison to gold. If you shorted gold and went long platinum with a $203 dollar spread in the favor of gold, it would be profitable 100% of the time in the last 115 years.

Remember, buy cheap, sell dear. Platinum will eventually return to the normal premium to gold.

[traderabc] 24/9/2015 11:00

'quite some time'

Hmm, turned out to be about 12 hours, still there is damage on the chart, consolidation should occur in a larger trading range then the 51 to 60 mentioned.
Perhaps we're looking at the low 50s to the low 70s.

fiik

:)

[traderabc] 21/9/2015 14:56

Looks like 51 was 'the' low, at least mid term. 60+ is strong resistance and the trading range is 55 to 60. Or perhaps 51 to 60. It ought to need quite some time for consolidation to occur in these ranges before we can hope for it to break upwards.

[traderabc] 30/6/2015 11:38

Now the bounce?

[traderabc] 29/6/2015 10:57

I don't know RB, LSIL doesn't look quite as bad over the long term. It ought to find some support in the short term, but it has smashed through some important levels, so no longer looking so good further out.

edited by lsil I meant phpd, as in the link below





Recently (last 6 months) I've been getting tempted to buy some physical Rhodium but the longer I wait the cheaper it gets. This may now be the case with Palladium.

[riggerbeautz] 27/6/2015 07:32

Trader these charts are almost impossible to call, I've never traded this just infrequently looked in, but it's very similar to LSIL in nature.

[traderabc] 26/6/2015 13:58

'king hell! This has gone to the dogs. So glad I got out (of a leavered position) in time.

That said I wouldn't sell physical metal, the cheaper it gets the more of a gift it is.

Surely we should see some support coming through at these levels?

[traderabc] 04/6/2015 09:26

Well that was a complete waste of time, as so often happens my broker came out of the deal smiling, whilst I came away with a bit of loose change for my effort. At least I didn't pay for the pleasure this time.

I'm almost certain this one will now find some strong support by the weekend or early next week and then go up to at least 76 within a month.

[traderabc] 14/4/2015 21:15

Get REAL with Jan Skoyles: Platinum and Palladium

[traderabc] 08/4/2015 21:53

Votiem as I appear to be here on my own you must mean me.

It's usually best to get in at the bottom of a range,(72 ish,on the short term) but caution with this one as it broke that level very recently, not very convincingly, but it's still a concern.

Personally I think it's better to own the metal outright for the long term (which i do) then mess about gambling with the likes of this one.

You aren't holding the metal here, this has 'time decay' so sitting long for years is not reallt a viable option.

That said I have a short term small punt on this atm, with a stop @ 69.50 and a limit @ 78

Stand well back and watch me lose some money on it ;)

[votiem] 08/4/2015 08:22

Fashinating. What point do you guys think one should get in?

[traderabc] 07/4/2015 15:52

Ahh...

that's better..

:)

[traderabc] 27/3/2015 14:45

Of course it won't this time as I've just put money on it..

[traderabc] 27/3/2015 14:24

It didn't, now it's back to that important support level, should bounce soon.

[traderabc] 29/1/2015 10:21

This is looking a bit better, now all it has to do is breakthrough that 78, 79 area where it's been struggling at recently.

[traderabc] 16/1/2015 13:30

It's falling back to that important support area again, it better hold the decline soon or we're in trouble..