Wt Physi Pallad Discussion Threads

[contrarian2investor] 31/12/2009 14:36

Hi all,

Palladium back on the move again. 2010 come see further outperformance against its metals/commodity peers

ETF Securities: Palladium, Platinum ETFs Closer to Becoming a Reality
by: Michael Johnston December 28, 2009




Palladium and Platinum Could Triple on New ETF Approval
by: Brian Kelly December 29, 2009 |




c2i

[contrarian2investor] 03/12/2009 13:37

Hi all,

Here is an article that should bode well for precious metal holders:


Precious Metal ETF Inflows Soar To Dizzying Heights
Vince Veneziani|Dec. 3, 2009, 8:23 AM
Investing, Analyst Research, Commodities, Gold
An analyst report from RBS examines how investors are going absolutely bonkers for precious metal ETFs:

RBS: The strong price gains seen in November across the precious metals have brought with them fresh investor interest in the sector. At end November all four families of precious metal ETFs stood at record highs in both volume and value terms. But the net speculative long positions on COMEX/NYMEX also stand at near record levels for all of the precious metals.

Here's the breakdown:

Gold ETF holdings rose by 24t (1%) in November to a record 1,762t. Holdings are up by 573t (48%) YTD. The value of gold ETF holdings rose by $8.5bn (15%) to a record $66.6bn as the gold price rose by $136/oz (13%). Total ETF value has increased by $34bn (101%) YTD. In euro terms the gold price rose by 11% mom as the US dollar finished the month 2% weaker against the euro. The euro value of gold holdings rose by 13% in November, ending the month at €44.5bn.

Silver ETF holdings rose by 787t (7%) in November to a record 11,882t. ETF value rose by $1bn (17%) as the silver price rose by 9% mom in US dollars and 8% in euros. YTD holdings have advanced by 3,628t (44%) and the value of holdings has increased by 142% in US dollars and 125% in euros.

Platinum ETF holdings rose by 1.7t (9%) in November to a record 20.4t and the value of holdings rose by 9% in US dollars and 7% in euros. YTD platinum holdings have advanced by 121% and their value has increased by 255% in US dollars and 231% in euros.

Palladium ETF holdings rose by 1.3t (4%) in November to a record 35.3t and their value advanced by 15% in US dollars and 14% in euros. YTD palladium holdings have risen by 72% and their value has increased by 237% in US dollars and 214% in euros.

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 18/9/2009 16:08

Hi all,

Article of interest:


North American Palladium's Renewed Commitment to Exploration Delivers Results
TORONTO, ONTARIO -- (Marketwire) -- 09/17/09



c2i

[contrarian2investor] 08/9/2009 10:21

Hi all,

I have been contributing my research on PALLADIUM onto the PAL thread as I did not know this one existed.

I bought my first of several tranches of PHPD in September 2008 and I am very pleased with its progress thus far.
Yes I agree the running costs are good.
It still surprises how few people appear to be holding this, especially when you have puchases like below:

8/9/09
Last trade Price VOLUME VALUE
09:48:05 29.50 11,000 £324,500.00

c2i

[notanewmember2] 09/8/2009 13:26

Impressive run still going. Did anyone else buy on the low in January, and still in? Are you impressed by the running costs of this?

[notanewmember2] 27/7/2009 15:02

Double top forming? Short term, probably might head back lower. Took my profits on the ETF, that was suffering from ETF running costs that I bought in January.

If only the physical stuff was VAT free, I would be loading up!

[traderabc] 25/7/2009 13:57

Looks like palladium could be running out of steam here.

You think? The uptrend looks a bit better with a yearly chart.
It's still not broken, I'm hopeful.

[notanewmember2] 24/7/2009 20:52

Looks like palladium could be running out of steam here.

[notanewmember2] 16/7/2009 22:06

Meanwhile, David Einhorn, who runs the $5 billion Greenlight Capital Inc hedge fund, revealed in an interview with Bloomberg that he switched all its SPDR Gold Trust holdings to Gold Bullion in the second quarter of 2009.

Mr. Einhorn, who bought the yellow metal for the first time in January, explained that the move was motivated by the fact that it is cheaper to store physical gold than pay the SPDR fees.



15/07/09

U-turn on ETF GOLD, straight into Bullion.

Beware - cost of ETFs are high

[m4ybe] 05/7/2009 14:16

I am interested in starting with some palladium, thanks for raising the issue on undertracking, which ruins long term tracking on non-physically backed ETFs that I have seen - although the graphs for palladium look the same in dollar terms to me, and the silver and gold ETFs (PHAG/PHAU) have tracked well for me taking currency conversion into account.

surely having physical palladium it isn't possible to long term underperform, apart from management and broker charges and spreads?

it's why I like the precious metals, but whether this is a good time to buy is another matter, but it would be nice to diversify out of gold.

[notanewmember2] 28/6/2009 21:09

duplicate post

[sheeneqa] 10/7/2008 12:52

Why these Two Twin Metals Will Skyrocket By Christmas
Today's comment is by Eric Roseman, Investment Director and editor of Commodity Trend Alert.

Dear A-Letter Reader,

No other precious metal has a tighter supply than platinum.

Though platinum prices have remained high over the last few years, supplies are getting thinner by the day as South African production draws to a standstill. Lately, these tight supplies have helped platinum prices shoot up north of US$2,000.

In fact, platinum has climbed so high that its sister metal, palladium is becoming the new exciting speculation. Right now, palladium is sitting at 56% off its all-time high in 2001 of US$1,100 an ounce. The platinum-to-palladium differential hit its widest level in history in late May as platinum prices rocketed to new highs.

So the question is: Has the price of platinum climbed so high that industries will start switching to palladium?


The Boom in Platinum

Platinum has a variety of uses. The automobile industry uses platinum for gasoline-powered catalytic converters and it's also widely used in jewelry.

Investment demand is also draining platinum supplies. Recently, another platinum exchange traded fund (ETF) began trading in New York. In 2007, two platinum ETFs began trading in London and Zurich, respectively, effectively draining more supply from a thinning market.

Platinum initially led the bull market in the precious metals complex earlier this decade. But now platinum has fallen behind silver (+330%) and gold (+234%). Since December 2001, platinum has recorded a 230% total return.

Meanwhile, platinum's sister, palladium has lagged behind the other metals. Palladium also still has an abundant supply. That's mainly because Russia dumped a large supply of palladium on the market earlier this decade. As other metals have risen in price, palladium prices have declined 54% over the last seven years.


Deficit of 480,000 Ounces in 2007, 711,000 Ounces in 2008
No other precious metal has suffered more from growing supply shortages since last year than platinum. And it's getting worse.

According to Johnson Matthey, a metals and chemicals forecasting firm, platinum reached a deficit of 480,000 ounces last year. They're forecasting platinum will hit yet another record deficit of 711,000 ounces in 2008.


Platinum Sails to the Moon and Beyond


This follows massive production downgrades from AngloPlatinum (OTC-AGPPY-PK) and Lonmin (London-LMI.H) - two of the world's largest platinum mining companies.

Platinum production in South Africa accounts for about 80% of global output. Just in 2007, South African production declined 4.9% to 5.04 million ounces. South African mines are facing several issues including smelter closures and a host of safety issues interrupted mining operations.

Worse, widespread electricity shortages in South Africa this year are lending to another major price increase. Still, supplies continue to shrink and extend into a major net deficit situation. South African platinum output has hit its lowest levels since 2002 and continues to contract in 2008.


Can't Hide Production
Unlike crude oil, which has doubled year-over-year in the midst of a parabolic bull market, spot platinum is much easier to quantify in terms of overall supply.

It's hard to hide platinum output. We know that one country mines more than 75% of all output. And if that one country can't boost supplies, it's an easy speculation that prices are going to rise much higher.

In short, South Africa can't produce enough supply to meet demand. And according to Johnson Matthey, global platinum output last year fell 4.1% to 6.55 million ounces and that amount was easily absorbed by the auto industry and jewelry market.


Palladium to Benefit?
Palladium is the worst-performing precious metal this decade. But it might receive a big boost if platinum prices remain so high.

Palladium always competes with platinum in the auto industry for catalytic converters. So if prices continue to rise, the industry will have to switch to the cheaper metal - palladium.

In the absence of a significant drop in jewelry demand or a major recession in new auto sales outside of the United States, platinum prices are likely to remain high. That should help palladium, which has gained a cumulative 29% in 2008.


Palladium Starts Its Rise to the Top


Palladium, however, remains in net supply surplus heading into 2009. Unlike platinum, there are no threats to palladium's production. Russia is the main palladium producer. And unlike South Africa, where mining output has stalled, Russia continues to supply the palladium market.

Platinum prices will have to rally significantly from current levels if palladium is to absorb market share in the auto industry. Still, judging by technical chart patterns since 2006, palladium is looking strong.


Platinum Up-Crash Ahead?
Since 2003, spot platinum prices have soared a cumulative 250% from US$594 an ounce to US$2,077 now. Platinum reached an all-time high of US$2,290 in March and sits 9.3% below that best level.

According to RBC Capital Markets, platinum demand continues to average about 3-4% annual growth. Once again, that's mainly from catalytic converters and jewelry.

If platinum supplies continue to shrink, which is almost a virtual guarantee with these production problems in South Africa, we will have a much higher platinum price by Christmas.

The advent of exchange traded funds investing in platinum since last year in Switzerland and now in the United States since May will continue to suck more supplies from an already strained market. This is bad news for consumers, but great news for investors seeking the Perfect Storm in the commodities markets.

Platinum and palladium are probably two smart speculations in mid-2008. If you divide your portfolio equally between these two metals, you're likely to get a handsome reward over the next 12-24 months.

ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director

EDITOR'S NOTE: In Eric's Commodity Trend Alert portfolio, his metal recommendations alone have already leaped 67.8%, 79%, 116%, 120%, and 213%. As both these twin metals rise, Eric will continue to give his subscribers the information they need to profit. Now you can get your hands on Eric's entire portfolio - and all his winning recommendations. Get the details here.

[le couteau tombant] 23/6/2008 13:24

Wiganer I set up another thread on Pd under ticker code PGM Not realising this one existed, if any of you stumble across anything interesting articles please post on other thread as well.

[le couteau tombant] 23/6/2008 11:42

Sorry answered my own question, ETF held 208,433.80 troy ounces of Palladium per Sunday 22nd June 2008 in HSBC Zurich.

[le couteau tombant] 23/6/2008 11:42

Sorry answered my own question, ETF held 208,433.80 troy ounces of Palladium per Sunday 22nd June 2008 in HSBC Zurich.

[le couteau tombant] 23/6/2008 11:13

Does anybody know whether this is backed by Physical Metal and if so the number of troy ounces held?

If so has custodian HSBC NA Demonstrated that they actually hold Physical Metal?

[trader horne] 23/5/2008 20:28

seems to be settling back into the trend line.
Was rather unhappy about this month's Mining Journal suggesting supply exceeds demand.

[traveleye] 20/4/2008 14:13

The confidence of Palladium substituting Platinum is very real and when the car/jewellery manufacturers successfully implement this for use then those holding onto platinum will be similar to those believing the titanic could never sink

[pecker1] 10/3/2008 08:13

Bullish BS re cold nuclear fusion or what - you decide:

[traderabc] 18/2/2008 19:43

Glad I bought both several years ago.(Perth mint) So when do I sell them? That is a harder choice.

[mustyair] 18/2/2008 19:37

lift off.
platinium getting pricy, pall cheaper option.

[danski] 19/4/2007 14:00

interesting thread

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