Wt Physi Pallad Discussion Threads

[dasv] 02/12/2010 10:25

Yeah still have PHPD. Wish I had 10x the amount but there you go - hindsight and all that. Still a superb performance for a commodity ETF over a 12 month period. C2i - thanks so much for alerting me to palladium.

[traderabc] 01/12/2010 23:45

NGAS LSE

And a canadian traded Uranium etf (ish)

U:TO

Not done anything yet but thinking about it.

[contrarian2investor] 01/12/2010 22:39

traderabc,

Plenty more to come next year. I am still holding PDL/PAL.

I hold a small amount of LNGA, which is 15% under water.

I hold EML, NRRP, WU:CN & XE:CN as my Uranium vehicles.
dasv is playing KAH, GCL & GCLS.

Which vehicles are you looking at wrt Nat gas & Uranium?

c2i

[traderabc] 01/12/2010 22:17

Shocked and awe'd c2i ;-)

Didn't get a chance to buy more. Uranium and nat gas are tempting me atm.

[contrarian2investor] 01/12/2010 22:03

Hi dasv and traderabc,

Are you still watching?

PRECIOUS MONTHLY- Silver, metal of the month; palladium most shining year-to-date



c2i

[dasv] 15/11/2010 13:08

PHPD is a good way of buying palladium in my view - no need for Perth Mint.

I think now the chart has risen so much we need to look at the 10-20 year palladium price. Still some way to go before previous highs are taken out.

As I posted a few posts ago:-

[traderabc] 15/11/2010 12:45

c2i, sorry I didn't look at the chart closely enough I meant 400% in 2 years obviously. Still it's a big move, some consolidation is needed to keep this healthy, so I kind of relieved to see it.
I'm considering buying phpd if we see this around 60 in the next few weeks.

As I'm holding Palladium via the Perth mint where I'm told if I sell I can't buy back in latter as they no longer offer these certificates, my options are therefore reduced. I think HSBC offer this one, which is not an institution I have much faith in. That said as a shorter term play, this is the one I'll have to use.

[contrarian2investor] 11/11/2010 20:54

traderabc,

The only commodity beating Palladium is COTTON at present. Which just goes to show that one should consider out of favour investments whilst the are down-trodden. >400% return is pretty good considering that the average investor had not even heard of Palladium prior to Nov 09.
The chart do look scary but alas it could easily continue. Unless of course BEN stops throwing $$$$$ out of helicopters.

My main palladium investment PDL/PAL is "only" up 93% since last Nov 09, so I am hoping for further appreciation over the next 12 months as production continues to get ramped up.



c2i

[traderabc] 08/11/2010 17:56

This one is getting silly, the near vertical rise recently is making this increasingly risky.
It's coming close to a 400% rise in the space edited 2 year(s).

[contrarian2investor] 04/11/2010 12:02

Hi all,

Some charts on my holding North American Palladium (PDL/PAL).

Stock Chart Of The Day: North American Palladium



c2i

[contrarian2investor] 04/11/2010 11:52

traderabc,
No Norilsk do curently produce a significant amount of Palladium. However if/when they change strategy, Palladium will no longer be a priority of theirs. Thus reducing already tight supply.
-------------------------------------

Palladium's Seven-Year High
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Published 11/4/2010




c2i

[traderabc] 27/10/2010 22:35

Thanks for that article c2i, 40% of world production just yanked out of the market could indeed have a very significant effect on the price. Where do you get the figure from? As it appears to contradict this statement

"with palladium and platinum constitute only an insignificant portion of the revenue."

As neither are particularly cheap metals, the inference is that Norilsk do not produce that much, Please correct me if I'm wrong about this.

I'm in some doubt as to whether the current strength of price reflects this news, because Norilsk is still in the early stages, a year trial and then a potential $10 billion expense towards implementation which would presumably take a year or two.

I guess that if those 'residue ores' would contain 40% of current world usage, then the stuff will be shipped over to China to have the white metals extracted at vast ecological cost.

The chart for palladium is still bullish, even though it's trading at its highs, it seems at least for now to have decoupled from Silver, Gold, and even Platinum, which is unusual.

So here we are in a situation where both fundamentals and technicals are bullish along with the fact that the 'public' aren't really in this trade, another good sign.

And finally, would I buy it here at over $600?

I'm tempted, especially in light of the Norilsk news, but the 300% appreciation in less then 2 years makes me a bit nervous, I'd much prefer it to retract some and then at least pretend to establish a range of some sort.

[contrarian2investor] 27/10/2010 19:25

Hi traderabc,

This could also have significant impact on PALLADIUM. I would be interested to hear your thoughts/views.

Norilsk Nickel Plans $20 Billion Program to Boost Arctic Output
By Ilya Khrennikov - Oct 18, 2010 8:21 AM GMT+0100



The potential implications are qualified by a US blogger/investor Mark Anthony who first bought PALLADIUM investing to my attention a few years ago.

The arctic area is where the by-product palladium is produced. Note the discussion how the nickel ore grade is deteriorating. How they are struggling to boost production of nickel, amid lowering ore grade.

But particularly note the last section, New Technology:

======================...
New Technology

"We're considering switching from pyro-metallurgy to hydro-metallurgy based on Activox technology," Muravyov said. Within a year, the company will test whether the technology, which Norilsk bought in 2007 as part of its $6.5 billion LionOre acquisition, will be suitable for Arctic ores. Activox uses chemicals to dissolve nickel from concentrate and then produce the pure metal.

"The cost of applying Activox in Norilsk still needs to be evaluated," Muravyov said. Installing the technology at all of Norilsk Nickel's facilities, at a cost of as much as $10 billion, would allow the company to "remove all ecological problems and cut electricity and gas consumption," he said.

======================...

Now I finally understand why they acquired LionOres at such a high cost. They want the technology. This is a technology to extract base metals, nickel and copper, from the ores, using chemical method (called hydro-metallurgy), INSTEAD of simply melt the thing at extremely high temperature (called pyro-metallurgy).

Using the new technology, the cost is MUCH LOWER. The sulphur dioxide pollution, which turns Norilsk into the world's TOP TEN most polluted city, is not a problem any more. And nickel can be extracted almost 100%, much higher efficiency than the traditional pyro-metallurgy method. This is extremely attractive to Norilsk, because they are a mainly nickel and copper producer, with palladium and platinum constitute only an insignificant portion of the revenue.

The only catch is, platinum and palladium, being chemically inactive metals, will NOT be extracted by this Activox Process. Not at all. These two precious metals will remain in the wet residue of the ore, after nickel and copper is extracted. It means these metals will be dumped in a waste pile, and will NOT be produced.

That means 40% of the world's mining supply of palladium will be instantly GONE. This has got to send a chill over the market, sending the palladium price skyrocketing!!!!

Of course, if palladium price is high enough, Norilsk MAY consider secondary pyro-metallurgy processing of the residue ore to extract platinum and palladium. But the cost will be very expensive, because there is no longer any nickel and copper in the residue ore. There is only platinum and palladium, at extremely low concentration. And once you start to cook the residue ores to extract the precious metals, the SO2 pollution problem comes back again, dedeating using Activox Process to reduce pollution in the first place.

My initial estimate is palladium price will need to reach $5000 and more, for Norilsk to justify secondary processing of such residue ores to extract the palladium. That's where palladium price wil go to once this Activox Process is widely adopted by Norilsk.

To leverage on this opportunity, buy physcial palladium, or the PALL fund, or the two mining stocks SWC and PAL. Oct 26 05:03 PM

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 27/10/2010 12:55

Hi traderabc,

How are your investments treating you.

I no longer hold the PAL ETF, however I have a large tranche of PDL:CN.
We will no doubt track Gold/Platinum when they retrace/pause soon. I would therefore look to buy into any retracement.
Because in my view Palladium is headed to fresh highs during 2011, if current tailwinds continue. Therefore PHPD could easily see 70-80 during 2011.

Bull points:
It is being talked about that Russian supply of Palladium is going to be tight if not finite going forward.
Growing emission control issues that require palladium.
Emerging markets wealth increasing the purchase of cars etc.
Very few palladium producers thus finite supply.

Bear point:
At/near a nine year high.
Car sales could tumble if US/UK/Europe fall off the rails.

Scotiabank's Mohr names palladium as a top commodity pick for 2011


27 Oct, 2010, 02.17AM IST, Sutanuka Ghosal,ET Bureau
Palladium at 9-yr high on global auto boom


c2i

[traderabc] 27/10/2010 11:49

5 metals that may be brighter than gold



By Tim Begany

[traderabc] 26/10/2010 22:43

c2i, what do you think is going on here? A top or are we going into new territory?

[contrarian2investor] 26/10/2010 22:32

Hi all,

Could be a further catalyst in the offing.

Hedge funds set their sights on palladium
By Jack Farchy in London and Gregory Meyer in New York

Published: October 26 2010 18:47 | Last updated: October 26 2010 18:47



c2i

[traderabc] 26/10/2010 22:28

Far fkn out, its peeked its head above 600, I'm sure this recent price action has some significance, a few more days up here in the deep blue sky, and a new support area in the 560-580 range may be carved out, even at these lofty heights we're still trading at close to half its historic all time highs.

Then if you're feeling little greedy and want interest, like I do, the calculation can be adjusted for the indisputably inflationary period we have been through over the last 10 years, which would make its last high of 1100 equate to something more like 2000+ in todays rapidly depreciating money.

Then factor in the newer fundamentals of the Asian boom and Western 3rd Reich emission laws, 2k may one day look cheap, as the $ looks like it ought to continue its decade long crash against anything of real tangible value.

[nabcom] 14/10/2010 08:24

Russia's Palladium Stocks Depleted by 2011
Roman Baudzus writes --

While Russia is generally known for its abundance in natural resources, Norilsk Nickel, the world's biggest producer of metals mainly used in the automobile sector and the construction of catalyst systems, advised of soon to be depleted Russian stocks of palladium.

[traderabc] 13/10/2010 21:11

This one looks like it has broken out.

[dasv] 30/7/2010 09:18

m4ybe - I was just thinking that this morning after not looking at PHPD for ages though I kept a bit invested.- chart does indeed remain bullish after pull back. Interesting.

[m4ybe] 30/7/2010 08:36

Does anyone else think this is finding its feet again? This topic has gone silent since the big drop.

It is starting to look as if this correction is over, and palladium will continue to outperform the other precious metals. However it has also been known in history to sometimes crash big time when that happens.

I think the ratio of palladium to platinum was three times higher than it is now in 2000. Sure that must have been a bubble, but we have recovered only a small proportion of that.

[pecker1] 19/5/2010 20:03

Yes,

Somewhere around 33 but not bothered , am just holding as I cannot predict what the hedge fundies will do from one day to the next, nor do I care - no doubt some are hugely clever (or they think they are)but in reality they are just total morons, judging by their behavior. Happy to wait until real assets steam ahead in a sea of worthless paper money.