Wt Nat Gas 2x Discussion Threads

[jl202] 11/9/2009 13:52

Its quoting in dollars and saying no funds available on this stock ....

jl.

[jl202] 11/9/2009 13:45

I'd call but I don't want to be stuck on the phone for half a fncking hour

jl.

[gdasinv2] 11/9/2009 13:43

OIL for sure would break the 80$ barrier by year end - In comparison along with Winter and OIL exposure - it will definitely climb on but with few bumbs only, as outlook is catching up to be +ve. My predication to buy when it was 1.18 - I bought at 1.25 made 40% return in 2weeks but on SIPP a/c (50%) only 20% portfolio on ISA

[cyberbub] 11/9/2009 13:41

jl202 I am having exactly the same problem :-(

Says it doesn't recognise the symbol even though it's giving me the realtime price.

[pbracken] 11/9/2009 13:26

I think $10 for natural gas is unlikely gd; I'd give it max $7.5, and even that assumes oil around $75.

[pbracken] 11/9/2009 13:25

NG price now up at 340cents. Technically, LNGA looks good 'till 200cents. Still intend to trade the dips, though.

[gdasinv2] 11/9/2009 13:16

BottomPicker, I have seen you on several epic. Look mate , I am a real bottom picker - had made me 75% return in last 6 month on whole portfolio , LNGA sits 50% in SIPP and 20% in ISA , I see this is an incredible price - As on winter it will go up and may stay long or still go up depending on economic recovery by Feb End. Surely , 10$ is a my target price.

[bottompicker] 11/9/2009 11:30

If you have a look back through previous years, Natural Gas prices have spiked in Sep/Oct, and after that initial spike, they havent retraced to those lows. With that in mind, now would be a good position to go long.

As its my first time trading ETF's, Ill be watching to see what happens as I dont want to put more than 10% of my portfolio into 1 trading position.

[gdasinv2] 11/9/2009 09:17

LNGA will keep rise until DEC - JAN from now when people already starting to heat in europe and canada. Lot of fund is buying cheap value - as up trend can happen in long run. so pocketing some in portfoli0 is not bad at all.

[pbracken] 11/9/2009 08:36

True, BP. But note that LNGA fell to 107cents; the recovery since then has been close on 50%, whilst gas prices have risen around 35%. I can't explain in detail why LNGA hasn't risen by 70% (to relfect the 2xleverage), but it might relate to the intraday pullbacks which, because of the contango, effectively limits the spring in the upside.

Like I say, if you don't time your entry on an upswing it's mighty difficult to recover the losses that mutliply if NG falls.

FWIW, I reckon that gas is now on an upward trend. There will be pullbacks, but the low is in place (IMO). That provides some basis for trading at these levels, because it is very likely that the range for LNGA is pretty well-defined: 120-240cents. Of course, if NG retests the c240cents low, LNGA will fall well below 100cents. So, be carefull.

[bhoytrader] 11/9/2009 08:12

BottomPicker,

Exactly why I have decided I'm going to take my profits in NGSP. It's hard enough beating the market when the odds are fair. Very difficult when they are stacked against you with the pricing of these ETFs at the moment.

good luck

[cagey76] 11/9/2009 08:10

so in your example you would have had value in the leveraged version, as its leveraged by two, yet is not twice as much down ?

[triples] 11/9/2009 08:10

Couldn't you trade the contango with a calendar spread instead?

[bottompicker] 11/9/2009 08:02

Just a practical example for any investors looking at this.

I bought at 1.69 when Natural Gas was at $3.09 about three weeks ago. We are now at 1.60 with natural gas at $3.23.

My Leveraged Natural Gas is down 7% and non leveraged NGSP is down 4% in my account.

So although Natural Gas is 3-4% higher then when I bought it, both ETF's are down.

[navyan] 11/9/2009 08:00

pbracken, if the price of gas rise 20%, then LNGA should in theory rise 40%, which should be 1.96?

[pbracken] 11/9/2009 06:58

Well, gas closed close to 20% higher - that should see LNGA rise to at least 155cents.

[pbracken] 10/9/2009 18:37

Price of gas up 13% across the pond; if that holds we'll have a bumper day here tomorrow....

[pbracken] 10/9/2009 16:06

It won't go to zero, BP - look at LOIL - but gains are so skewed against a falling price that you have to be very, very smart when it comes to timing your entry/exit point.

[bottompicker] 10/9/2009 15:50

Just be careful in this, its not a regular share, its not even a very fair leveraged ETF.

Just for an example, I bought about 2-3 weeks ago, lost 30%, but now the price of natural gas is almost where I bought, but this is still down about 20%.

This stock wants to go to Zero, its stacked heavily in the favour of the financial companies that sell it.

[stewart3269] 10/9/2009 15:20

Bottom picker,

Thanks for that, I did check but could not see it, will re check, any view from here, bought back in a couple of days ago at 126