Wt Nat Gas 2x Discussion Threads

[gdasinv2] 15/9/2009 11:34

Holder from here for next 6 months will make at least 5 baggers with stop loss at £4

[cagey76] 15/9/2009 10:03

as an aside,

this last week I have started wearing kintwear at work and out biking and walking I need an extra layer .... , therefore my trading range is not one day, or 5 days, its more like 120 days.

[cagey76] 15/9/2009 10:03

I have bought here and am starting to realise that there is more to the price of this thing than I realised, but no problem theres more to most shares I trade than I realise.

A previous poster suggested that if Nat Gas moved up to $10 then this ETF will only go to $4.5. I'll leave myself open to criticism here, but I just don't believe that.

I need more investigation.

[longshanks] 15/9/2009 09:40

I don't have a big stake - principally I am playing with this to see if I can make money.

I think there is room for day trading: and using LSE:SNGA on the converse daily movements - but I feel that we may see more profitable trading when using a longer frequency: 5 - 10 days possibly.

[redprince] 15/9/2009 09:17

longshanks-i think i know what you mean-by range trading you mean coming in and out of within a particular range?If you are comfortable with what you feel that range to be then i think that is how you can play this part etf to your advantage.

Certainly a ltbh strategy here is extremely risky/unadvisable imho as you only have to be 2 months early to see a significant proportion of your stake vanish!

Interesting times for natural gas certainly.

[triples] 15/9/2009 07:15

I sold out just now... I'll wait for a pull back if there is one!

[longshanks] 15/9/2009 07:14

My read on this redprince is that it should be well suited to range trading. Could well oscillate between 1.5 and 2.5 for a good while. Sell the peaks, buy the troughs....or at least that is what I intend to do.

[wooosh2] 14/9/2009 21:56

tata treating u well?

pmsl

[redprince] 14/9/2009 21:50

pbracken-i appreciate your views and fwiw re post 237:my gut feel (albeit a totally inexperienced one on natural gas) is that you are right re: inventory positions.The big $$$ upturn is likely to occur when inv starts to dip- some months away imho.I could well be wrong.

My question is the future price may well/prob will price that in and so contango likely to be steep on this for some time.Timing esp on this one is not just key but crucial.

This etf is for intraday (riding the surf) trading imho.

Am i right in saying that here we are buying the future price and selling at spot?

Thanks in advance.

[jl202] 14/9/2009 18:45

Snobtimus Shaime - 14 Sep'09 - 11:38 - 226 of 238



Wise Reading, ETFs are not always as simple as they seem

Yeah because there we all were saying how dollar leveraged NG ETFs were child's play, and it turns out their actually not straightforward at all.

You don't fncking say,

jl.

[jl202] 14/9/2009 17:01

Interesting movement eod!

jl.

[redprince] 14/9/2009 14:39

Re post 235 - +1

Kind regards.redprince.

[triples] 14/9/2009 14:13

pbracken... please keep your posts coming as they are very informative. Thanks.

[gdasinv2] 14/9/2009 13:49

U.S. Natural Gas to Rise as Output Drops, Goldman Sachs Says
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By Dinakar Sethuraman

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures in New York are poised to rise this coming winter and into summer as output declines, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

Gas will trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange at $6 per million British thermal units for the Northern Hemisphere winter and $7.50 for the 2010 summer, Allison Nathan and Jeffrey Currie, analysts at Goldman Sachs, said in a Sept. 13 report. The average of U.S. gas futures between December 2009 and March 2010 was about $5.04, and $5.27 between May and August 2010.

"Although the large volumes of gas in storage will likely limit any upside to prices from current levels until the end of October and will keep the market well supplied throughout the winter, we believe that further expected declines in production will tighten the market balance sufficiently," the analysts said.

Gas futures in New York have tumbled 60 percent in the past year as production increased while consumption fell during the global recession. Stockpiles in the U.S. are 17 percent above the five-year average, according the Department of Energy data.

Natural gas futures may decline through Sept. 18 after prices rallied from their lowest levels in more than seven years as stockpiles head for a record, according to a Bloomberg News survey published Sept. 11. Gas futures for October delivery plunged the most since May, losing about 9.1 percent, to $2.96 per million Btu on Sept. 11.

Supplies gained 69 billion cubic feet, or 2.1 percent, to 3.392 trillion cubic feet in the week ended Sept. 4, the Energy Department said Sept. 10.

Storage reached a record 3.545 trillion cubic feet on Nov. 2, 2007, according to the department.

"Some regional storage sites are likely close to full, leaving the market nervous with the prospect of still eight more weeks of injections before the usual start of winter draw downs," the Goldman analysts said.

[babylon3] 14/9/2009 13:23

nav - looks possible.

[navyan] 14/9/2009 13:12

gas price is rocketing atm. this could finish in blue today at this rate.

[pbracken] 14/9/2009 12:10

Not yet, navyan: waiting for US open....

[navyan] 14/9/2009 11:23

hey pbracken, gas price is back above $3 again now. did you buy in here today then?

[pbracken] 14/9/2009 11:16

Goldman's target for NG of around $6-7 seems about right to me. That gives a propsect of c$3.50 for LNGA from here (though please note, the contango means that the upside may well be less). I'll trade that potential upside (though please note, again, I'll SELL on a decent spike).

[navyan] 14/9/2009 11:07

SS, noticed this bit in bold from your article above:

"Accordingly, we maintain our NYMEX natural gas price forecasts of $6/mmBtu and $7.50/mmBtu for the 2009/2010 winter and the 2010 summer, respectively, well above the current forward curve."