Wt Nat Gas 2x Discussion Threads

[gdasinv2] 17/9/2009 15:01

EasyGlider? What Figure mate? This is based on underlying DJ Index DJUBSNG

[easyglider] 17/9/2009 14:01

Don't forget figures out at 10:30.
Should be a clear indicator of which direction we move from here...

[gdasinv2] 17/9/2009 14:00

Interesting the underlying index seems to be holding - No major downside but a bit Fluctuation but looks +ve

[gdasinv2] 17/9/2009 13:28

If any 1 can filter - My analaysi is so far been 95% correct, Rally since last 1-1.5 week, I have sold 75% of my LNGA today - Taken a profit and watch what is happening as the underlying index started -ve , seems some profit booking. But kep 25% stocks - in case it reverse

[gazza950] 17/9/2009 12:38

i got out at 1.96 today too, will wait and see what today's inventory numbers bring just in case i wasted my 2k worth of profit

any drop towards 1.60 and i am back in - am still very bullish for mid term

am happy enough taking profits along the way tho!

[gdasinv2] 17/9/2009 12:24

The rise is likely go ahead further, as

Futures Keep Soaring on Alleged Fund Short-Covering
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
from NGI's Daily Gas Price Index September 17, 2009
October natural gas futures exploded higher once again on Wednesday, and with the bearish fundamental picture remaining unchanged, market participants were attempting to identify a catalyst. While some were convinced that the recent activities of the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) played a role, others saw the extended rally as nothing more than a wave of fund short-covering

More Pipes, Rock-Bottom Prices Narrow Differentials Across the Grid
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
From NGI's Daily Gas Price Index September 17, 2009
Natural gas price gaps among different North American regions are narrowing as the recent surge of major pipeline expansions has opened bottlenecks and leveled the supply playing field. Sources indicated that some spreads will grow again when heating season arrives, but for the foreseeable future near-parity numbers will remain the general norm across the North American spot market

[maximoney1] 17/9/2009 11:26

Didnt fully understand the 'contango' effect on this one...had assumed the leveraged relationship was linear......took my medicine this morning. Painful lesson :-(

[gdasinv2] 17/9/2009 09:55

"Contango" effect has been started almost 1 year already - So no Surprise. The issue is Winter + Economic Recovery has forced the Hedge fund guys to recover previous loss , but cautiously. So Whole Winter would boost...I bought at lowest level i.e $1.30 but expectation by Dec is $6 -7 ( By Goldman Sachs) - But I have the target until $4.

[stewart3269] 17/9/2009 09:40

Well I have took note of people on here especially pbracken, redprince and triples and sold at 194 earlier having bought at 126. I am not as clued up on this as I thought, I naively thought that natural gas price drove this however with the contango effect in place because of the stock I now realise it is not as simple as I thought.

That said the rise in gas prices over the last few days has helped, the futures market and rolls are where I get confused but from what i gather if they have to roll at a higher price thats the problem.

I assume at some point futures will change and the roll will be positive, am I correct ?

[redprince] 17/9/2009 09:29

re post 290: please tell us how much of your investment is left by end of Jan?

Are you deliberately trying to help people lose money here?

[longshanks] 17/9/2009 09:13

Personally, I like pbracken's assessment of the situation over that of GS. In a leveraged fund like this I believe it almost inevitable that we will retest $1.4 or even $1.2 before we start going north of $2.

Am out with my profit - so happy to watch on the sidelines - but until this is comfortably over the 50d m.a. (it is today), I expect a retrace in the short-term.

[gdasinv2] 17/9/2009 08:53

There is no chance of dip from here until DEC or even JAN, Dont you see GOLDMAN Sachs Report? But taking profit time to time is not bad at all.

[jl202] 17/9/2009 07:52

I'll stay in until at least 2.5 or can afford to hold on a drop, which would anyway indicate a breakout. May top up if it gets near 1.6 again...

jl.

[cagey76] 17/9/2009 07:50

yep, was in at 1.5 & 1.19, now out, will go back when this dips.

[and then] 17/9/2009 07:31

Also out first thing, at the very least that gaps gotta close, maybe it'll do that first before having a pop at the £2 level, but have had a good run here, so will anticipate a better entrance point later, RSI and Williams looking toppy...

[longshanks] 17/9/2009 07:08

nice early open - thats me out. Will monitor a little now and maybe move into SNGA when I see this getting near the top.

[redprince] 16/9/2009 17:51

pbracken post 284 - that is (without the adv of a crystal ball) a decent
outlook from here.Inventory reduction is key but to make this a decent risk/reward play we first need future price to come down and if the scenario you have painted is correct then we would have that.

[cagey76] 16/9/2009 15:27

Autumn Arrives Early.

[bottompicker] 16/9/2009 15:25

just sold my holding. Forward month gas futures prices are 40% higher than this month, which as I understand it, the gas price will have to rise by 40% for this to break even.

I might be wrong, but without certainty of knowing what the effects will be, I feel that I am just plain gambling. I cant rule out me out selling at a loss if this drops another 20% in the coming days so I am taking a small profit and watching (and learning) from the sidelines.

[triples] 16/9/2009 14:58

Tonudiki.... that's really good :)

[jl202] 16/9/2009 14:42

Approaching resistance at 2p ...

jl.

[tonudiki] 16/9/2009 14:16

Very good quality posts on here from triples/pbracken et al. Thank you.

For another slant on the problems of currently being out of the general market and also a comment on natural gas futures bottoming out, have a look at:-

[triples] 16/9/2009 11:17

Red & cagey,

My problem is that I can only be at the computer for so many sessions. I am going to have to leave orders in the market.

good luck, triples