Wt Grains Discussion Threads

[leedskier] 12/3/2008 01:12

the mining sector is flying tonight in Australia. BHP up 4%+

[leedskier] 11/3/2008 20:26

Dow now up 3.5% tonight

[dasv] 11/3/2008 19:55

thanks for heads up leedskier. Let's hope the market likes ORE!

[dasv] 11/3/2008 15:27

cheers dave, will check it out.

[davebowler] 11/3/2008 14:58

Have a look at CED2 dasv, it might suit you.Bit of downside protection and
large exposure to softs.

[dasv] 11/3/2008 14:53

LS, thought you would probably bank profits on BRR - I don't like being accused of a doom-merchant on that or any thread, so didn't say anything. I still hold and am reasonably confident of a good profit for 2008 on that stock.

You are braver than me re: the banks. They do look cheap, but I can't bring myself to bet on the existence of balance sheet black holes.

I have a feeling your bet will come good though. See it through.

FWIW I have at present RRS, CEY, DGO, TLW, COB, ORE, FXPO, RCG, SOLA, HLS (Boring greek wheelie bin maker- very defensive, director buys), ALO, URKA, GCL (Uranium fund) BLT (free shares), an increasingly small holding in TFL and very small holdings in MTA, PANR, PET, ASM, ETFs:PHPT, PHGP, HOGS and fundwise, EST, Eclectica Agriculture, Blackrock Gold and General, First State Global Resources (excellent profits 50% over a year), JPM Nat. Resources, CF Junior Oils (biggest holding is DGO), First State Infrastructure, and some regrettable holdings in Invesco Perp High Income, M&G Pan European, Henderson Small Companies (down over 19% this year!).

Biggest mistake not selling RGM and TAN at 110% profits in June. Said goodbye to £25k there. Buy and hold doesn't work too well on AIM it seems. Actually biggest mistake was re-entering the market in May when I had sold everything in April cos I thought we were heading for a downturn after reading Crashproof.

I am sure I'll have plenty more mistakes to add to this lot before the year is over.

AGGP bouncing back huh. Back almost to my Friday sale price. I'm just transferring the £7k or so I had invested into my ISA, so funds locked up at the moment. I might dip my toe here again, but perhaps when market volatility has calmed down again.

I'm thinking about putting the money in Syngenta and Norwegian fertiliser producer Yora, but am tempted by a momentum trade on AU. which looks to be back on an upswing.

[leedskier] 11/3/2008 12:59

add: since posting that doom & gloom, the news of the Fed's attempt to further fight deflation (by helicoptering in more $$$$$$$$) has sent the banking sector up 6%

[leedskier] 11/3/2008 11:56

dasv, thanks for your advice. Germany seems to be recovering confidence. I would not be surprised if % the exports are heading to Russia. The Russians (especially Putin) really admire the Germans. The first time I went to Russia in 2001 the hotel was full of cool German businessmen. They have a real grip on banking there too. Cairn(CNE) is making gains. There is an RNS re: its Indian offshoot and whether India will allow it to offset costs of a new oil pipeline from its sharing agreement with the Govt. I am not in it. My only oil shares ( XEL, DES) are 'free' having taken advantage of 20% spikes in the share price of both on news. The rest of the rag tag collection includes...SFR (free shares) JRVS (free shares), STAN, RBS (bought at 390), BB. (free shares), HBOS (bought at the bottom), ORE, YAU, BRR, QTI (a small punt, needs news of sales), GDP (a small punt, but a disappointment), GIP (disappointment...Co. should have arranged finance, by now, to complete on a guarenteed long-term contract with a German Co.It will hopefully come good), SEG (small punt, bought after the share price crash to take advantage of any take-out). My biggest loser and heaviest investment is RBS. But it (and the other banking shares) should recover in Q3/4 08 (hopefully) and the divi on that and the other banking shares approached 8%. As appears I am mainly in what I hope are 'recovery' shares trading at some 50-60% of their 2007 highs, with (hopefully) sound fundamentals.

Mistakes (too many to list) include....selling CFM (at 34p), ELR (at 145p), XTA (at £34) in Q4 07.

I guess I need a 20-25% gain in the FTSE350 for this portfolio to show anything approaching a profit. However, so far as the banking shres are concerned, it was after the sale of IEC, I switched into banks. The fall in these shares (net of the dividend) is far less than the fall in IEC.

[dasv] 11/3/2008 10:23

;) think I read something to that effect in Buffett's shareholder letter - why invent new ways to lose money when the old ones worked just as well? ;)

Regarding which currency will remain strong, my guess is the Scandanavian currencies, the swiss franc and the Euro. I read in the FT today that exports from Germany are soaring despite the rising strength of the Euro.



Further falls on the main indexes would not surprise me coupled with aftershocks on the small caps. I should have sold up last week too. My problem is I like looking at blue profits on each stock rather than staring at losses. So I hate taking profit even when I've had a 20% gain in a month.

And the stocks I tip to friends/family tend to be the pick of the bunch of those I know about. E.g. since September I tipped Goodwin, Dragon Oil, Randgold, Centamin, AGGP, PHPT, URKA. I didn't tip underperformers such as SOLA, RCG, TFL, MTA, PANR (even though I hold them).

Perhaps there is a way of determining which stocks you should buy: would you advise your friends or family to buy them? If not why buy them yourself?

[leedskier] 10/3/2008 18:35

dasv, Ok. I understand. Bloomberg is full of very bad news tonight. I really do not know what to do with my shares, I should have closed out last week. I knew what was coming, problem is I have a recurrent problem, namely I am often better at advising others than applying it myself. Do I consolidate my loss? Or just ride out the storm? I think the FTSE100 will hit 5000 within 2 weeks (unless something happens...which I cannot foresee). The pundits are saying the Fed has made a big mistake trying fight deflation rather than fighting inflation. Oil is off the radar tonight on a weakening $. I read somewhere that the fall in gold was expected at it approached 1000$ (similar to your comment). The comment was not that it was a consolidation, but reflected a general move out of everything into cash (profit taking as well, I guess, to offset losses elsewhere). Quite which currency the Americans will buy to hedge the $ remains to be seen. Meanwhile these highly leveraged funds invested in sub prime mortgages are likely to cause a massive ripple across the financial sector, when they can not meet margin calls. The one last week in the Channel Islands was operating on a mind blowing leverage far far greater than its asset base, a factor of 1000 would not be an overstatement. I guess it will be a long time before the Banks trust kids with PhD's in maths to dream up new ways of losing money when at least the old ways if not as efective at making losses at least had the advantage of being more transparent.

[dasv] 10/3/2008 18:19

LS, actually I'm out of AGGP for a bit. Gonna let the dust settle. In retrospect it would have been nice to buy back in at 400 but wasn't really in the mood for another trade. In fact the reverse is true.

[leedskier] 10/3/2008 16:04

I am glad gold is because everything else is in a downward channel, today at least. It is going South from here until the CGT sell offs have finished....or the Fed slash interest rates.

That said this is moving North again.

add: We are just some 12% off 5000 now. I do not necessarly perceive symbolism in these numbers, but many others might. I think it may be time to sit back and learn to take the pain. If we are following my dour prediciton last week, I fear we it may be a long journey.

[dasv] 10/3/2008 12:56

PoG is in an upward trend channel and the fall is inline with a trading range in that channel. The reason could indeed be an attempt to shore up the dollar in advance of a rate cut. However it could just be falling inline with other precious metals. Platinum is in a steep correction currently, and silver and palladium are not escaping unscathed. At the moment the only things going up in my portfolio are Cobham, Dragon Oil, and Lean Hogs!

[leedskier] 10/3/2008 12:28

POG is falling, I guess the Fed is lending it ahead of the expected rate cut to stop the $ falling over the cliff

add: or it could just reflect the strengthing £ against the $

[leedskier] 10/3/2008 09:38

dasv, I am thinking about it...

[dasv] 09/3/2008 11:40

ls - you thinking shorting the FTSE or DOW. I've been looking at the charts and I can't see where support is. I'd be more happy being short than long on those indexes. VIX is up too :(

[dasv] 07/3/2008 16:44

Remember I said my portfolio had escaped unscathed - not so by the end - down 1.7% at close :(

DGO and COB up but a few more questionable purchases got dragged under.

DOW has broken psychological 12000 barrier. I'll be watching to see what happens next. It was an emphatic break through that level so could recover to fight another day.

[leedskier] 07/3/2008 15:09

add: One has to luv the Yanks. All the Worlds' stock exchanges have tanked in the last 24 hours and they are just sailing along today...so far at least...meanwhile the City (which I think want the 100 below 5500)has, for the second time this week over-reacted to what it perceived would be Wall Streets' bad news.

[leedskier] 07/3/2008 14:47

dasv, I will think about Russia. meanwhile there is without doubt, massive inward investment by Western firms in 'quality of life' add ons and no doubt in the massive domestic infra structure expenditure promised by Putin as a thankyou to the electorate and no doubt ensure he is re-appopinted President at some future date. I will spend some time refocusing on it all. Meanwhile tracking food may be one way. Whilst China will 'gobble up' resources, they will not pay top $ when the West is in recession and Australian shares have been falling faster than the FTSE. India may buck the trend. HK and Singapore are too tied to the USA.

[dasv] 07/3/2008 14:29

ls - I share your anger though mine is directed at management of a life policy I have. Pension funds take huge fees for slightly under-performing an index. Even though no doubt I will make further "mistakes" with my SIPP at least when things go wrong it's my fault. It's a bit like when I bought my first flat. If the washing up was not done, I knew who was to blame :)

I've heard it said about 2008 that investing this year will not be about making the most money, but not losing too much.

With assets from commodities, property, currency and equities all under pressure searching for safety has not been so hard in years.

Defence and Tobacco stocks? - I know I kicked up a fuss about the ethics of NBPO but I'll admit I bought Cobham last week...

[dasv] 07/3/2008 14:23

ls, hot off the press: Moneyweek on what to buy in Russia. Sure you know all this already!

"So what's the best way to buy into Russia's ongoing success
story? An obvious play is gas giant Gazprom (LSE: OGZD).
With its former chairman Dmitry Medvedev becoming
Russian's new president, Russian analysts expect the
group to get pretty favourable treatment. It will also reap the
rewards of the 25% rise in domestic tariffs, is attractively priced
on a forward p/e of 9.9, and will benefit from Putin and
Medvedev's efforts to secure cheap hydrocarbons from
Central Asia.
Other resource plays include miner Norilsk Nickel (OTC:
NILSK.PK). It's had a great run stoking China's construction
boom, but is still valued on a forward p/e of just ten.
Another of Russia's big exports to China is fertiliser.
Leading Russian potash outfit Uralkali (LSE:URKA)
is an attractive play on China's efforts to get the most
out of its dwindling farmland reserves. Profits jumped
48% last year and the group is one of only two potash firms
that can add significant capacity, accounting for 50% of
planned global expansion.The stock trades on a forward
p/e of 13.
One of best ways to play Russia's infrastructure boom is
through the steel firms supplying the construction industry.
As Russia's monopoly producer of rails, steelmaker Evraz Group
(LSE:EVR) has to be singled out. Steel consumption in the
country has grown by 14% each year for the past three, and
Evraz accounts for about 20% of national steel output. It trades
on a forward p/e of just 9.3, say analysts at Centreinvest.
Russian bridge builder Mostotrest (OTC: MOSRF.PK) is one of
Prosperity Capital analyst Liam Halligan's favourite construction"

[leedskier] 07/3/2008 14:22

dasv, I think I once explained I creamed off free shares instead of cash in a number of positions, so I can ignore them...may be I should have taken the cash, but I would have only lost it elsewhere. I fear my pessism is now in play. I will explain to you why I am so angry about all of this. I used to work 24 over 7, or so it seemed, and left my pension fund management to (incompetent) brokers, leaving the paperwork in some bottom drawer. In 1999 and again between 2001-2003, I lost a lot on one of them. Meanwhile I have had £100k sitting in a bank account since 2003. If I had had time or indeed the time to acquire the knowledge, I could have invested it and taken full advantage of the bull run between Spring 2003 and last Summer. Having switched onto investing last Summer, I came to the party too late. I am now timed out, at least for holding long in many equities. Fortunately I still have cash, so I can wait it out. However I wanted to retire quite soon...:(

[dasv] 07/3/2008 14:11

indeed. It doesn't look good does it. Do you still hold SFR? I have a small position there. Taking a pasting today :(