Wt Grains Discussion Threads

[mr roper] 28/2/2008 15:27

Wow, that was some spike!

Mr. R

[dasv] 28/2/2008 09:29

WEAT now at record high after yesterday's chaos.

[dasv] 27/2/2008 16:47

level2 went absolutely mad today on weat and aggp as well.

There was a price monitoring extension put on the ETFS WEAT security and I noted it went into backwardisation (auction) with only tiny volumes available on buy/sell.

That's all I know - extreme volatility I suppose.

[huntie2] 27/2/2008 16:43

what on earth has happened to the price of wheat at the end of the day?!

[dasv] 27/2/2008 12:14

One more thing, Dominic Frisby is saying buy junior gold miners.

I suppose he is saying gold is not in a speculative bubble (yet), and when it comes you will see the junior gold miners spike very high. However it could be we are already in a speculative bubble in gold - as my chart points out above there AGGP outperforms PHAU but not by much.

I.e. Why shouldn't Frisby also argue that the bull rush currently for gold is analogous to the rush for Uranium? Perhaps it is, perhaps it's not. Who knows.

Scary looking chart for Randgold Resources (RRS) which I have held on and off since 1800p:-




22nd Feb - Moneyweek says buy softs:-

[multibagger] 27/2/2008 11:38

Many thanks dasv - much appreciated.
Mb

[wankee bernanke] 27/2/2008 11:31

A bearish stance to get you chaps sweating:

[dasv] 27/2/2008 11:00

multibagger,

There is no weblink. I created the charts using proquote (I have TDWaterhouse's level 2 service), and screen-shotted them with the Prnt Scrn key, pasted into paint, and uploaded using tinypic.com.

The best site I have found for charts is bigcharts.com, and if you want a web site which has the charts you are looking for, you could consider creating a new thread here on advfn and inserting the charts there in the header of the thread. For base and precious metals use www.Kitco.com

I have used bigcharts.com on my threads on URKA, AGGP (see versus PHAU above in header), GCL and ALO.

Baltic Dry:

[multibagger] 27/2/2008 10:05

dasv,

Can you kindly paste the internet source/link of the charts ( as in post 62) - many thanks in anticipation.

Just for me to keep track without waiting for someone to helpfully post it.

Also I want to have a webpage with key economic indicators like price of gold, oil, baltic freight index, agri comm, dollar v other currencies, major stock markets, etc all in the same place... can any one help with sources.

Thanks, MB

[leedskier] 26/2/2008 15:07

dasv, not yet but any day now....meanwhile the (non pc) soya beans are flying....but the lastest data about wheat is that it is outstripping supply with export restrictions being imposed.

[dasv] 26/2/2008 11:20

trends of the above over one year:

[dasv] 26/2/2008 11:18

6 month trends in Corn, Wheat, Soya, Gold and Platinum

[dasv] 25/2/2008 18:04

Wheat not at all time high yet despite 10.81% rise today. Going well indeed.

ls: intriguiing the quants can't navigate a highly volatile index. Perhaps they should switch them off when VIX goes above 30 ;)

The last 12 months should give them plenty of anomalies to back-test against, though no doubt the coming 12 months will also be unique.

You back in IEC? I am considering getting in again ahead of resource upgrade announcement.

[huntie2] 25/2/2008 16:26

another good day at the office for the grains....just hope they are not going up too quickly!

[leedskier] 22/2/2008 13:24

dasv, you will enjoy this one

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- AQR Capital Management LLC's largest hedge fund fell almost 15 percent this year through Feb. 15 as market swings tripped up computer models the managers use to make trades, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

The assets of AQR's Absolute Return fund dropped to $2.9 billion last month from $4 billion in the fourth quarter, said the people, who declined to be identified because the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm doesn't publicly disclose the data. AQR's smaller Asset Allocation fund lost at least 16 percent of value.

Quantitative managers who rely on computers to make trades have struggled as global equity markets declined. Assets managed by AQR, co-founded in 1998 by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. managing director Clifford Asness, slipped more than 20 percent to $8.6 billion in the past six months because of investment losses and client redemptions.

``Quants traditionally do well when the market moves in broad strokes, and during choppy markets, their practices suffer,'' said Geoffrey Bobroff, an independent investment consultant in East Greenwich, Rhode Island, who isn't affiliated with AQR.

AQR spokesman Brian Maddox declined to comment.

Quant funds run by AQR, Goldman and JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Highbridge Capital Management LLC stumbled in July and August when credit markets seized up and managers rushed to raise cash by selling stocks. Goldman and Highbridge are based in New York.

[dasv] 21/2/2008 09:23

yes - and ignore any hype on the internet too. Stick to what you know. For me that's gold, platinum, grain, oil, and diversified miners.

[dasv] 20/2/2008 10:25

huntie2 - when the doom-sayers in Moneyweek get to me on Friday I generally buy the FT weekend edition for a dose of sanity :)

[huntie2] 20/2/2008 08:59

dasv - agree totally with your comments on Moneyweek (which is my prefered Financial read).Paul Hill apart they often seem on the ball in terms of market and sector trends. AGGP and AIGS are my holdings at the moment in this sector.

[qwerty1234] 19/2/2008 17:27

the spread seems to have narrowed to 4.29/4.32

[dasv] 18/2/2008 11:28

Chris - yes I read that article. I find Bonner amusing though sometimes find it hard to follow his "logic". Moneyweek is a publication which simulataneously tells you to sell all your equities, and still employs Paul Hill to tip various dubious stocks. I find it useful for picking out trends and sectors I would otherwise not have thought of. AGGP and URKA are examples of this.

With respect to AGGP - I think the spread here is off-putting - 413/432 - that's getting on for 5%. WEAT currently has a spread of 5.60/5.64 - i.e. about 1%.

[chrismcglone] 12/2/2008 09:35

I wouldn't worry too much dasv(not that you will be).

Wheat stocks are nearing 60 year lows, corn 33 year low (with 30% of last years crop headed for the gas tank) and most other commodities are not far behind. (source: Bill Bonner in last weeks money week)

[dasv] 12/2/2008 08:57

chris - I think it might be a while before there is an ETF for potash as a commodity though ;)

Re: WEAT and AGGP - looks like some serious profit taken has taken place with wheat falling considerably over last 24 hours. The fundamentals remain the same but with a rise like this I guess a technical correction is unsurprising.

[chrismcglone] 11/2/2008 23:16

The potash story is an interesting one dasv. We obviously read similar stuff as i was poking around for possible exposure.

ETF's have certainly opened up some of the markets that were previously only traded by the pro's or more sophisticated investors than myself.

I will have a look at URKA. cHEERS.