Wt Grains Discussion Threads

[dasv] 11/2/2008 13:16

ls - don't know if you are interested but I bought some URKA today - it's a very large potash producer based in the Ukraine. There's also a canadian potash producer which also has a great share price performance.

[leedskier] 11/2/2008 12:20

dasv, thanks, I will look at wheat...

[dasv] 11/2/2008 11:22

I've been watching the spreads on ETFS AGGP and the corresponding ETF's for its constituents - SOYB, CORN, WEAT and it seems you can get far better spreads by buying the individual commodities than the composite ETF.

I don't propose to momentum trade this ETF (it's a buy and hold for me) but I think it would be possible to momentum trade the constituents - they seem liquid and spreads are much tighter.

[dasv] 11/2/2008 11:19

leedskier -

thanks for great links as always [edit]...

It looks like WEAT is the star of the show for the time-being:-

"The market is desperately trying to tell global producers that we need more acres for wheat production."

What this tells me is that related companies are also going to have a bumper year. I'm thinking agricultural machinery manufacturers, fertiliser producers, GM grain companies, potash miners. Food retailers are going to have to pass on extra costs to consumers so it might be harder for them to maintain their profit margins.

[leedskier] 09/2/2008 06:41

these shares should really fly next week....

[leedskier] 08/2/2008 09:22

dasv, thanks for the tip about finding an 'elegant entry point'; there is a report on Bloomberg, quoting Darling hinting that he will use fiscal measures in the March Budget (following the Bush plan, it would appear) to stimulate the UK economy. Looks like he is betting the farm that he can reduce the public sector borrowing requirement by increasing GDP. What impact it will have on the exchange rate remains to be seen.

This maybe relevant



Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Imports of wheat into India, the world's second-largest consumer of the grain, may climb 68 percent this year, supporting prices that are at a record.

[dasv] 08/2/2008 08:30

thanks for link, ls.

Funny they are blaming SocGen for their screw-ups:-

``The sharp, sudden increase in volatility in the markets, exacerbated by the massive unwind of a fraudulently constructed portfolio of stock indices at SocGen, increased our volatility dramatically,''

Re: grains - Perhaps we are getting to the stage now where investors in ETF's are impacting on grain prices?

.... one more thing - this ETF is now at an all time high - recommend buying slices on dips.

[leedskier] 08/2/2008 06:19

dasv, to see how badly the professionals have misjudged it so far this year...

meanwhile I must join this select club....food does, after all, seem to be the safest hedge at the moment...

[melody9999] 07/2/2008 09:55

you said it George - I'm in.

[george62] 06/2/2008 23:29

Price seems likely to open a fair bit easier tomorrow after wheat, soya and corn closed well off their bests over the other side of the pond after the spike this side of the water. AGGP chart looks good tho so may present a chance for those not in already to get a lower entry point.

[chrismcglone] 06/2/2008 21:48

There was me procrastinating again whilst it was under £4.

That was a some spike.

[dasv] 06/2/2008 19:24

An awesome rise in AGGP today. Wheat and Corn the main drivers. Haven't researched into reasons why...

[dasv] 05/2/2008 17:45

wheat up: bad weather hurts Canadian wheat production:-

[mr roper] 05/2/2008 09:55

Good day yesterday on CBOT for Wheat, Corn and Soya. I think this one bodes well for the long run.

Mr. R

[dasv] 05/2/2008 09:53

I see we are outperforming gold again and I assume most on this thread are now in profit. Just the beginning I believe of a long term trend in grain prices.

[mr roper] 04/2/2008 09:22

testing the 400p barrier again.

Mr. R

[dasv] 30/1/2008 12:41

chrismcglone - that's an understandable position to take in the current investment climate. My position here is long term. I am currently down a few per-cent but not put off by any means. When I get a bit more time I'll post some more news on what's going on in grains.

[chrismcglone] 30/1/2008 12:04

hi dasv, look forward to contributing to the board (if i can).

Still not bought in and i admit to being put off by the steepness of the rise so far. I know there has been a small correction but until i know a bit more about what drives the prices, eg. seasonal factors etc as mentioned above, i still don't feel that confident jumping in right now.

[incorrigible] 29/1/2008 17:10

let them eat cake

[leedskier] 25/1/2008 10:17

lol...orange and pork bellies might be tastier than Soya beans...:)

[mr roper] 25/1/2008 10:03

picked some up at 377 this morning.

[dasv] 24/1/2008 17:14

Regarding Wheat, price falls are due to fears that in a recession people will require less. I guess people will starve themselves to death then, just to pay off their credit card bills.



"the seasonal "February Break" phenomenon is occurring in the grains. ":-



I should have bought Pork Bellies or Concentrated Orange Juice instead ;)

(Trading Places is such a great film.)

[dasv] 24/1/2008 17:11

Soya set to fall in May on new harvest but long term picture looks bullish.

This article points out how increased speculation in grains by traders/investors/fund managers squeezes farmers who rely on soya for cattle feed.

[leedskier] 23/1/2008 19:55

Hi dasv, No I do not hold, but I have been watching them closely on my monitor. Like everything else, incl gold and oil, food seems to be tumbling again today...