Wt Eur Eq Gbp H Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 09/5/2009 16:30

Praipus, - oh sorry I'm 21 months late.
- balancing odds etc ..
- On 100 years of evidence, markets will retest lows of February - 85% chance .

ONLY on 3 occasions out of 17 or 19 bear markets since 1900, has the low not been retested.
Now the SECOND lowest low WAS tested, but then there was a lower low. Not only this, but the median duration from a low to its retest was around 90 days. We have already used up about 64 of them.
So- what would Dirty Harry say? I don't think to fight these odds.
-
so now may be a very good time to start hedging if retaining shares through a likely downturn. ( if not selling them!)
Write call options of FTSE shares, eg Banks?
or simply start running a short CFD or spread bet on FTSE down to a possible 3500. A lovely 900 points to come to those IF the above is correct.

[praipus] 23/8/2007 13:27

Have started a thread for government bonds etc

[hectorp] 18/7/2007 12:46

It is also possible to hold shares one doesnt want to sell, and so short the underlying consituent, so if holding oil shares, short crude oil . If you get that wrong, the oil shares could rally more, so you may not lose either way . These are trades for 'possibly nervous' times, or if you intend being away for a few days.
Such trades are often low Alpha, or nearly risk-neutral.

I am currently short some Emerging Markets Funds, but long Japan Funds.
OK I may be too early into it, maybe not.!

[hectorp] 17/7/2007 17:53

Looks at ways of balancing trading to reduce downside effect of a correction.
eg
Merrill Lynch UK Absolute Alpha Fund.
while gain is only 11% over the last year, it uses a paired trades system, safeguarding downside.

[smarm] 20/11/2006 16:44

jpx - hedgehunter is entitled to his/her view. You may not like it but that's the deal with bulletin boards.

Sola is now a traders stock - caveat emptor - I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole.

S

[jpx101] 20/11/2006 16:04

This poster has been giving investors all over ADVFN a hard time. Would you like to comment? He/she has a particular perverse interest in bringing down SOLA. I feel it is not good taste or fair to other investors to post in this way. All the best...

[hedgehunter] 06/4/2006 22:48

Its thrown it down tonight in Liverpool the going must suit Hedgehunter.

Go eachway just in case,.

[hedgehunter] 03/4/2006 23:46

Now 4 to 1.

[hedgehunter] 01/4/2006 23:09

Remember this is better than a 1 BAGGER.

Please remember that.

BUT EACH WAY.

DYOR.

[hedgehunter] 01/4/2006 22:35

No joking, hes going to WIN.

But make sure you have each way terms.

DYOR.

[the councillor] 08/1/2002 16:51

Prudential plans hedge funds
investment


Prudential says it plans to invest in hedge funds in a bid to
increase the returns on its with-profits fund.

The group said the move was part of a wider strategy of
moving some of its investments away from equities after
concerns they would produce lower returns in future.

Richard Field, director of portfolio management at Prudential,
said it had invested a small amount of its £65 billion with-profits
fund, the biggest in the UK, in 40 hedge funds with US firm
Grosvenor Capital Management.

Hedge funds speculate on foreign exchanges, stock markets
and commodity markets, aiming to make profits by correctly
guessing future price movements.

Mr Field said: "It is something we have been looking at for a
number of years. This is one of a number of new investments
we have introduced."

He added that hedge funds offered higher returns than equities
or fixed interest securities, and returns did not go up and down
in line with equities.

But Mr Field said the group had waited until the hedge fund
market was more "mature" with established standards of
practice and risk controls before investing in it.

He added: "It has taken some time to convince ourselves it was
the right move to make."

One analyst said the move made "enormous sense" for the
group, adding: "There is no reason why they shouldn't do it."