Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 05/2/2018 09:41

Minerve - The egg might well be addled - Could well be here - !! Have a good RED day.

[liquidkid] 05/2/2018 09:38

wanton,
'How the hell can you value and put out accurate daily NAV statements'

Number Gnomes.

Work tirelessly through the night keeping the WACPT Random Number Generator chugging along. Unfortunately, for WoofofWoolSt he didn't see in the fine print of the zero hours contract he got the Gnomes to sign, when they see a bit of red...they turn into Gremlins.
This is well known fact that WoolinWallSt in his one eyed narrow view of the world
missed.
All he had to do was to climb Mount Uncertainty & read the scriptures carved into stone by Trolls
Now he seems adrift in a sea of red surround by Short Sharks & without a paddle.

[minerve] 05/2/2018 09:34

NAV is pretty much only a guide - always has been. I don't place too much emphasis on such things in a trust like this. It's like looking at an egg and guessing what size chicken it's going to be. Well, that is just a matter of opinion friends.

[cynicalbear2016] 05/2/2018 09:26

I suggest you compare it to NAV as as close this evening

[minerve] 05/2/2018 09:25

Hopefully it might get much cheaper - I will get more for my money then!

[n0rbie] 05/2/2018 09:16

Huge discount to NAV (90.16p 1st Feb)

[jonwig] 05/2/2018 08:48

Out of interest:

"DUBLIN, Ireland, Feb. 01, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Prothena Corporation plc (Nasdaq:PRTA), a late-stage clinical biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of novel protein immunotherapies, announced today that it will report its fourth quarter and full year 2017 financial results on Wednesday, February 14th, after the close of the U.S. financial markets."

@ hpcg - good timing there!

[harveydee] 05/2/2018 08:16

Prothena shock resignation taking share price to new lows.

[jonwig] 05/2/2018 06:40

@ wantage - I agree. We've discussed this before, and valuations of unquoted cos only change when an 'event' occurs. Some trusts such as RCP publish weekly navs and VCTs, PE trusts only quarterly as a rule. Perhaps he thought he's score some big wins quickly?

Issuing an RNS isn't cheap: I heard of £250 a pip some years ago, but he probably gets a much cheaper bulk rate for a standard nav announcement. Say £50, making about £12,500 pa. Not so trivial.

[wantage] 04/2/2018 17:22

How the hell can you value and put out accurate daily NAV statements, when your fund is invested in so many unquoted companies? What are the criteria? Discount to last placing price? Am I missing something?

[jonwig] 04/2/2018 16:03

Neil Woodford's flagship fund has lost almost a fifth of its assets since May as investors dumped the renowned British investment manager following a series of bad bets and disappointing performance.

The Woodford Equity Income fund’s assets under management fell almost £2bn from an all-time high of £10.15bn in May to £8.2bn in December, intensifying pressure on Mr Woodford to turn round performance at the asset manager.

[escapetohome] 03/2/2018 20:07

Ive got thison my watch list.

Waiting fora new low before i have a nibble ie around75p.

[topvest] 03/2/2018 19:33

Have you read the story about the Prothena Chief Medical Officer walking after hours on Friday?

hxxps://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/02/02/1332512/0/en/Prothena-Announces-Departure-of-Chief-Medical-Officer.html

It doesn't matter where you look Neil is having a horrendous run.

Looks like Purplebricks is also being attacked on all sides and probably rightly so as they look an aggressive bunch.

Provident Financial, Capita, Utilitywise....the list just goes on and on.

This is getting serious as warned.

Neil's buying strategy seems to be centred around speculative start-up's (all loss making and paying top dollar), leveraged IPO floats (not something that you should be focusing on as the vendor knows more than you), companies with dubious management and questionable revenue recognition (Purplebricks and Utilitywise) and doubling up on disastrous value traps. Way to go!!

Maybe time to go back to big pharma and cigarettes.

[dplewis1] 03/2/2018 18:53

Read anything by Daniel Kahneman and his ilk or even the latest Michael Lewis book..it's a simple 'reversion to mean' ..!

[riskvsreward] 03/2/2018 18:45

He did exactly the same with Provident. After the first big fall, he said in his monthly update, the gist of which was 1) He talked to management and positively assured 2) The issue was a teething issue of taking the contract debt collector in house and once bedded in the growth will be big and 3) His fund was buying more on the opportunity of lower price.

What does it lead to, the pfg price lost another 2/3 since his assurance and buying more.

Too many and too big losers which must make one wonder is he really that good? Either his recent disastrous performance is an accident or his past good performance was just getting lucky.

[tim 3] 03/2/2018 16:20

It's not so much the not selling that surprised me it s the fact that he bought more a month before the company came out with this announcement and then he said he expected them to do this,well if that's the case why buy more before they did it when it's obvious to anyone with even a basic knowledge of the market that actions like that would cause a significant drop in the value of the shares?

[stewart64] 03/2/2018 15:23

Woodford used the expression, ' not wanting to compound the error' about 12 months ago in a similar statement re. Capita with regard to selling it. So he does not now want to compound the error of owning Capita in 2016 and the error of not selling in 2017 by selling it now.
A lot of luck with investing, he has just had a bad year. May turn around for him. Probably basking in survival bias before he had a bad run.

[fpladdict] 03/2/2018 12:48

They have stopped the monthly updates, from an email received

"Going forward, rather than monthly roundups, we will share with you – on a more regular basis – charts, articles, data and snippets that come across his desk that support our view of the world."

IMO a negative sign for the funds as increasingly the comments asked pertinent questions which reflected a poor outlook.

[topvest] 03/2/2018 12:18

Yes, agreed. Capita was a classic value trap. In the last 5 years or so operating margins have gone from 12% to 3% which suggests something alarming was going on. Net debt is £2+ billion. Net liabilities are getting on for £1 billion. Capita may be a recovery buy now, but he was adding at precisely the wrong time. He should be saying sorry!

[hpcg] 03/2/2018 11:40

In any sum of parts all RM2 assets are worth near enough zero, even if that is not yet the marginal value assigned by the stock market for a normal market sized trade.