Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 09/2/2016 18:42

ceaserxzy - that's a good point, though I wonder if the revaluations of these need to be made daily?
I imagine the early-stage companies will be mostly valued at cost, but with periodical reviews across the board. In that case, one day the NAV might show a sudden fall.

[ceaserxzy] 09/2/2016 18:02

It looks like the true NAV is a lot lower. Look at the fact sheet in today's link, all the quoted shares are donw 3% or more. It looks like the unquoted ones are holding the NAV up, which is really artificial. More conservative valuation shouldmark their value down in same percentage as the quoted Bio. tech companies.

[tyranosaurus] 09/2/2016 13:31

Why put all your eggs in to one basket all at once (Biotech) ?

Rules of investing:
Don`t put all your money in at once, as this leaves you with no cash to average down if markets fall,or any money for new opportunities.
Diversify your investments.

Mr Woodfool has blow it big time.

[liquidkid] 09/2/2016 10:22

Meaningless. IBB has nothing to do with WPCT as it was too late to the party. All the crooked insiders had already blown all the poppers by the end of 2015.

PRTA 31.71 -7.47%
ALKS 29.45 (-8.46%)
NWBO 1.94 -0.08 (-3.96%)

And I bet these Group Subsidiary Ownership Adjusted Valuers for all the Unlisteds haven't even got out of bed today. (They've been off sick since the start of the year.)

[jonwig] 08/2/2016 20:34

Thanks, both, for the clarification.

[essentialinvestor] 08/2/2016 20:05

Just to give some context, even with a near 40% fall from the 2015 peak
IBB is still 160% Up on a 5 year basis.

Andrew Witty GSK's CEO highlighted last year what he termed a huge bubble in biotech
valuations, a tad ironic that Woodford a long time GSK advocate sold his GSK stake here.

Perhaps Woodford will be validated longer term.

[essentialinvestor] 08/2/2016 20:00

It is indeed, apologies should have clarified.

[bdog51] 08/2/2016 19:39

Nasdaq biotech index, I believe..

[jonwig] 08/2/2016 19:15

EI sorry to be obtuse: what are IBB, please?

[essentialinvestor] 08/2/2016 18:38

IBB near meltdown here, biotech now in a huge bear market.

[my retirement fund] 05/2/2016 18:40

I've noticed woodford upped his stake to 23% in abza

[bdog51] 05/2/2016 18:24

Woodford sells Glaxo from WPCT -

"Woodford was persuaded that capital would be better deployed in his more growth-orientated Patient Capital Trust by freeing-up cash from Glaxo and taking advantage of the US biotechnology sell-off, as well as some depressed prices among UK biotech companies."

[liquidkid] 05/2/2016 10:56

Here's a theory - To keep the premium up it wood be in Big W's interest to mark the NAV down while maintaining the stock price level. Is is not a little strange that absolutely ALL the trades so far today are 'O' Open market Ordinary retail BUY trades. I have not seen this occurrence before...ever.
So the P/NAV stays at a premium around 4% (There was only 1 day this year that it dropped to parity was quickly rectified) Then he can get in and tap the market for more money. Because he sure has hell needs it - on a stock shopping spree next to nothing. Just this week:
4/2 IVO £10mn
4/2 Increases holding in ALM
2/2 Mission Thera (IVO) £11.3
1/2 Fed Wires (ALM) $15m

So where is he getting all the money from thought he spent it all?

[toffeeman] 05/2/2016 09:55

Has another component of the Portfolio gone t1ts up? Can't see why it's down on an upish day.

[liquidkid] 03/2/2016 13:48

So what are these Series A Prefurreds That WongFond has piled into.

Here's Investopedia to explain:
The first round of financing undergone for a new business venture after seed capital. (this unicorn a bit long in the tooth now)
Series A financing tends to occur when the company is generating some revenue from its business model (Nope). Most series A investors will be venture capital funds (Not wpct) or angels from space who are willing to accept the high levels of risk found in these early-stage company investments. (more like a fallen angel)
A class of ownership in a corporation that has a higher claim on its assets and earnings than common stock. Preferred shares generally have a dividend (no) that must be paid out before dividends to common shareholders, (not happening) and the shares usually do not carry voting rights.(hmm)

So why has he forgone voting rights? because he already owns 30% and should not be allowed any more unless he wants to run the whole damn thing himself.

[liquidkid] 03/2/2016 09:52

If one could take the time out from playing with adult colouring books and observe this pattern. The WooHoo Multiplier effect.

01 FEBRUARY 2016 - The WIMmer fundraising values Federated Wireless at $82 million, up from $10 million.

05 October 2015 - the total valuation of Precision Biopsy increased to $90.4 million from $19.0 million

22 April 2015 - the total valuation of SciFluor increased to $130.7 million from $37.1 million.

And the biggie:
09 October 2014 the total valuation of STT increased to $251.0 million from $137.0 million
Note: Prior to this transaction, Allied Minds' last reported ownership adjusted value in STT was $76.9 million
25 Jun 2014 allocated IPO proceeds of $76 million to STT
Ownership Adjusted Value as at 31 December 2013 Early stage STT $76.9m

[jonwig] 02/2/2016 07:29

Citywire article (includes criteria for achieving a performance fee):

[liquidkid] 01/2/2016 11:22

WOO Hoo Hoo Hoo HOOOOOOO Hoo! Yeee Haaaar!

Saddled up the mare of unicorns with Moar Moola, and riding up to the top of the rainbow at dawn today with a 'new investment' You won't see it until the end of Feb holdings are published in March though.

So $15 goes into 'Uber for spectrum' subsidiary of subsidiary Federated Wireless now valued at....wait for it........ $82 million, up from $10 million. (the hay making multiplier effect)

Ownership adjusted value represents WooHoos' interest in the equity value of FW = (Business Enterprise Value - Long Term Debt + Cash) x Allied Minds Magic Number.

And now taking pole position in the racy portfolio is.... The Allied Minds Connection.

Allied Minds 2.37
+ Precision Biopsy 1.25 ($15mn Oct 15)
+ SciFluor Life 0.94 ($11.3m Apr 15
+ Fed Wireless $15mn which should be ~ 1.25%

= 5.81% which = Number 1

[Previous number 1 Prothena 6.30% marked at $68.11 at 31 December 2015 fell 43% off a furlong at $38.95 so should be out of contention]

[toffeeman] 31/1/2016 21:44

Well the NAV is 86.5 so it's currently trading at a (small) premium - so way to go for me.

[bdog51] 31/1/2016 15:04

I'm interested in getting back in at some point too. I'd be interested to hear when others here think the timing is right. I'm in no hurry, prepared to be patient...

[toffeeman] 31/1/2016 12:46

Sunflower: spot on.

I will go back into WPCT when I think the discount (to allow for the failures) is large enough. The main attraction for me is that W has the opportunity to invest in early stage companies which I do not. His team will see many presentations each week and so should be better at backing more winners than losers than most.

It's just a more sophisticated version of Dragons' Den

[hutch_pod] 31/1/2016 07:51

On Barnett, trustnet reports 'Biotechnology and university spin-out firms are likely to play a greater role in driving returns over the coming years for the Invesco Perpetual Income and Invesco Perpetual High Income funds, according to Invesco Perpetual’s head of UK equities and manager of the two portfolios Mark Barnett'.

[tournesol] 31/1/2016 01:17

Eastbourne
"….Woodford survives by investing pre ipo, strip out the gains he makes there and I would imagine his record is very mediocre…."

Precisely

This fund has invested in many stocks pre-IPO. Which is precisely why it is attractive…...

[mad foetus] 30/1/2016 19:21

I think recommending a manager whose name you get wrong is a pretty basic error myself.