Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[daffyjones] 29/6/2018 20:01

Itaconix shares suspended on AIM as the company says it will go insolvent if it cannot raise additional cash ASAP

Their funding round failed as Woodford has no money left to support them.

Woody owns 34% of the company.

The share price had already fallen by 90% since the peak in 2016 so it only makes up 0.02% of the Equity Income fund.

Still, a worrying sign when Woody has to finally start pulling the plug on his failed firms.

[solonic] 29/6/2018 18:02

My analysis, Tom , is that it also applies to you and all your monikers.

You have been beaten to a pulp, so far, on all your prognoses on WPCT. My advice is: leave it there. You lost your money on your shorts and you are not good enough at your life's chosen obsession to gain it back

Everybody laughs at you. LOL

[chucko1] 29/6/2018 17:12

Solonic, is there any analysis you would care to share? Or are you too frightened to put yourself in the spotlight?

[ltcm1] 29/6/2018 16:33

Historical Factuality:

92.5 23rd Jun 2017 to 106 21 Jul.

88 - 93 late Oct early Nov.

73 16 Mar 2018 to 85 13 Apr.

All three 'rocket rises' have culminated in even steeper falls.

Solonic the thing with rockets is they have a nasty tendency to come crashing back to earth. History is telling us to be wary for this is a proven pattern for this stock.

[ltcm1] 29/6/2018 15:04

Yes I would like to echo mad foetus and say well done to all holders. I'd love to see Woody thrash the quants with his balls deep old skool trading instinct.

All I would say is that each time there has been a sharp upwards rise in WCPT, there has been an even sharper fall. But perhaps this time will be different???

RM2 down 7% today to 0.95 pence. Purp down 2% to 327. Woodford has bought 20% of flu vaccine pharma Hvivo in recent days but the shares are well off the prices he paid. Only small potatoes but is this another example of Woodford climbing aboard a bandwaggon just as others are jumping off??? Let's hope he doesn't catch a nasty cold.

[mad foetus] 29/6/2018 12:35

Well, as an ex-holder I am happy to see this picking up. Whatever you think of Woodford, the way this Fund was launched, the fee structure and the focus on areas starved of capital are all real positives and I hope the success can continue. GLA

[chucko1] 29/6/2018 12:25

chuckoI, I see you feel emboldened by the week's price activity. So good luck for the next 7 years as well. But that's a long time to manage your emotions.

[chuckol] 29/6/2018 10:27

Where's that slimy prat jonwig gone to, I wonder.

[chuckol] 29/6/2018 10:27

ltcm1. Very funny my old friend and fellow-traveller.

Did they do a degree in Advanced Dishonesty at Pontypridd Tech?

[topvest] 28/6/2018 21:28

Well Woody has had a good week or two. NAV back to 92p. Only 8p back to where he started. I don't believe that 92p is a proper value as its toxic rubbish, but others will obviously disagree. Nevertheless, Woody has definitely got the upper hand in the last few days. Of course, there is a long and difficult road ahead, but lets see how it goes.

[daffyjones] 28/6/2018 00:19

Autolus down 4% today. Still up massively from launch

[1tcm1] 28/6/2018 00:00

My dear friend and colleague topvest always talks total sense. Generally I support him totally.

His qualifications put everybody to shame, not only does he have a truly fabled degree in chemistry but he also has a full city and guilds diploma (class iii) specialising in heading up Investment Trusts and Funds. It is certainly not his fault that jealous rivals prevent him from currently following his vocation in that field. (I will not, of course, mention the Woodford name in this context). I agree with him that this does not give him an edge in running a Biotech company.

I too have degrees from exactly the same institution as he attended. My first degree was in Biology, and my second in an especially difficult field, Triology, a subject not clearly understood by lay people, but which is of course one better than Biology. What is not so well-known is that I was second in command of the main exchange in Wall Street, New York and also deputy Finance Minister in Luxembourg. Topvest and I share the same quiet modesty in that we do not like to boast of qualifications which make us eminently expert commentators on threads like this.

There is one small area where, with the same genuine modesty, I disagree with topvest. He mentions that Mr Woodford does not have a specialist team really able to assess the science in potential investee companies. He is technically misinformed on this matter. OK Woodford's team does have people with Cambridge Doctorates and others who were Professors at a little known US tech called MIT. But he has nobody from that true apogee of academia where investment and science are inextricably woven together: we heard of it the other day, of course, it is Pontypridd Technical College.

I do not think that this lack of top-notch scientists hampers Mr Neil Wooodford in the least. We have plenty of scientists in those companies already within the Trust and presumably in prospective candidates. What these UK companies lack is the skill and panache in commercialising their marvellous discoveries. In this regard Mr Woodford has ample highly qualified resource. We don't need scientists for goodness' sake: we need those hard-nosed operators who can turn those ideas into cash!

[topvest] 27/6/2018 20:28

I agree, Autolus could be a blockbuster. Then again, it could be a disaster. Who knows, as its a very risky and speculative area unless you understand the science. I have a Chemistry degree, but have absolutely no edge on assessing biotech companies. Is Woody really able to assess the science without a specialist team? I would suggest he takes an approach of investing in a basket of story stocks and assesses the probability of success and the potential reward. The trouble is with this approach, who knows whether 1%, 5% or 20% of the portfolio will be winners? Its highly speculative and not value investing.

[chucko1] 27/6/2018 17:26

ltcm1, I agree with you on that - Autolus may rise, it may fall - with moderate correlation to the overall market. It may be a blockbuster (low probability, as you say).

It does improve the statistics a fair bit, this significant investment success, but as I have previously argued, we are far from statistical significance on failure rate of investments. Well, in terms of actual numbers of investments, but what is concerning is the large fund holding in PRTA which was a significant loss, so it's still looking fairly poor in terms of quantum of investment capital. In relative terms (so to WWH, for example) even poorer (and meaningfully).

NAV today of 93.30p - on the face of it, a significant improvement from the low of 81.84p. The closing share price of 81.90p (mid) suggests a discount of 12.2%. If you are still a believer, a great entry point - but why has this discount not narrowed? The market is still very sceptical.

[trollwatch] 27/6/2018 17:06

Ha Ha Ha. That’s really funny hari. The troll won’t like that. He’ll feel like the German team, kicked out of the cup.

[harijan] 27/6/2018 15:01

Autolus will teach topvest Autolus all his money.......

[solonic] 27/6/2018 09:59

238% up not 50% as you dishonestly said. And it's more now.

Carey street beckons Winnifrot.

Do you know the words to "Buddy can you spare a dime?". If not, Minerve will teach you and you can both sing it in your quavering little voices.

[ltcm1] 27/6/2018 09:31

I don't agree with Topvest that Autolus will fall if the markets turn, I think their success or failure will depend on the outcome of their trials. Just my 2 cents.

But there is still a big chance the trials will fail and it will become a near zero like Prothena. This is not hoping for it to happen, just the reality of biotechs.

[boilinthebag] 26/6/2018 16:49

Thanks for info ResearchAMan, I'll catch up tonight.

[topvest] 26/6/2018 16:46

LOL - that's impressive. Today's rise is tomorrow's fall though. When the bear strikes who wants a loss making pharma. Value investing has under-performed for c11 years. The tide will change soon.

[researchanalystman] 26/6/2018 16:34

Autl ...Price $27 today up from list at $17