Wizz Air Share Discussion Threads

[ot1980] 01/8/2023 11:16

many thanks for coming back tergifts, on the latter all makes sense now as when view the chart I can link back to the explanation you have provided , on the former I just need to do some research as to how you plot the data points to create the channel that allows you to arrive at the high/lows that you quote. Thanks again and for taking the time to explain.

[tergifts] 01/8/2023 09:56

OT well I don't want to give all my trade secrets away but, the Monthly has a upward trend line we have been following since around Aug 2022, It currently has a bottom of 2397 for this month, but last months was around 2313. The top of this channel is currently sitting at 3839 but I'm not expecting to get there over night.

Now to the original question the Last monthly cycle of this channel took us from 1361 start Oct 2022 to the top of the channel at 3111 Jan 2023 (4 months) now strictly speaking this wasn't quite the end of the monthly up cycle but we plateaued for a further 4 Months before the down cycle began for 3 Months that hopefully has now completed.

You would think those shorts would be closing quite rapidly now.

[ot1980] 01/8/2023 09:34

tergifts, what do you mean by 'The Last Monthly Cycle took 4 Months to go bottom to top'? How can a monthly cycle take 4 months to complete? Excuse my ignorance so be good to understand what you mean?

[doombarman] 01/8/2023 09:19

That would be magical figure for Mr mate.

[tergifts] 01/8/2023 08:38

The Last Monthly Cycle took 4 Months to go bottom to top.
This would put us in a region of 4147 in 4 months time, End of November which is quite plausible. Can you wait that long Doomberman or you out at 3000.

[tergifts] 01/8/2023 08:15

Actually looking at where the monthly cycle actually closed I think it has finished its move down and that should be it. So hopefully up up and away from here.

Need to get through the 1st downtrend just above 2600 now, It would be nice if we could get somewhere close before results day.

I guess charts can be just a coin toss ;-)

[tergifts] 31/7/2023 16:15

Doomberman I was meaning we would rise above to 2600+ i would imagine in the next 2 weeks, but then most likely drop again for the end of August to hopefully keep support around 2400. We need to get the mothly down cycle completed so we can progress.

[doombarman] 31/7/2023 16:06

It's not far off 24 at the moment...I would want it much higher by end of August...

[tergifts] 31/7/2023 12:41

Chart wise closing here would finish the weekly down cycle but unfortunately isn't my favoured bottom. But we are likely to start rising for a week or so which could create a more positive vibe for some. It would mean its unlikely the monthly has finished its downward move, but we are clinging into the long-term channel so I'm not sure it will go lower. But I imagine even if we rise this could hit 2400 again by the end of Aug.

[doombarman] 31/7/2023 12:34

I just got a bad feeling about this now.

[tergifts] 31/7/2023 12:25

Doomberman if you still have the same number of shares then you still have the same percentage of the 12000 share price. Unless you need the money shortly and you are willing to wait for the 5000+ that will come, the daily movements are of little concern. If it goes to 2000 would I sell, no. If it goes to 3000 would I sell, no. If it goes to 4200 would I sell hmmmm I will look at that in the next year when we get there.

[doombarman] 31/7/2023 12:19

When uou are underwater it is difficult to find any positives.

[tergifts] 31/7/2023 12:16

I thing Wizz have done the best thing, holding on to the cash whilst they increased the debt at non floating more favourable interest rates than what we could get today. There growth plan is on leasing the aircraft so this minimises the cash needed. But the cost of expansion obviously will reduce profits initially. But if we can avoid another crisis (eg Covid or Oil Boom with insufficient hedging) & keep seat capacity close to 90% I cant see why we would need a placing.

I'm not sure as the debt mature, how this will impact, but hopefully we will have increased profits by then.

[doombarman] 31/7/2023 12:15

The fact that shorts have gone up over certain percentage and having to declare don't bode well.

[doombarman] 31/7/2023 12:04

To much debt

[31337 c0d3r] 31/7/2023 12:03

Directors spent a lot of their own money on shares recently, so I can't see choosing dilution, if it can be avoided.

[ochs] 31/7/2023 11:23

I wonder if the market is pushing the share price down on thinking that their could be a placing to reduce debt at some point? Not sure there will be as it's not a strategy Wizz have favoured in the past - but clearly debt markets are much tougher than they were a couple of years ago.

[tergifts] 31/7/2023 10:26

Thanks DrKnow good summary, but I don't hold Wizz for where we are now its where we are going. It is true that £300M-400M isn't going to make a dent in the debt.
But £1B-£2B a year would, when you are in the early years of a growing a business you are not focused on Profit but Growth, the profit will look after itself we just need to manage the debt. Jet2 money is through its package holidays and they have ambitions of 200 Aircraft not 500 and their cost model is more expensive, the safer buy if Jet2. The Growth Buy is Wizz.

[tergifts] 31/7/2023 10:16

31337
I agree with your sentiment but I have seen many an Owner of a company to use the company profits to highly reward staff and leave very little for shareholders.
Now I am not saying they shouldn't reward staff but selfishly my investment is to produce a large increase in value for myself and Veradi Plans seem to fit in with my own hopes for the share price.
Lets not forget this is Veradi's company he is the founder,builder & invester, so in this case he doesn't really work for us, he just carries us along. That said he has a rather significant holding so you would think that offers its own encouragement to raise the share price, but I guess unlike us he can't really sell any, us shareholders wouldn't like it.

[dr know] 31/7/2023 10:14

My summary of the Sunday Times article.

Wizz borrowed E1bn during the pandemic and is getting 41 new planes in 2024. Wizz’s strong cashflow will not make much of a dent in its debts due to the impact of higher interest rates on those aircraft deals. Net debt for 2023 hit €3.9 billion, almost 30 times its cash profit. Wizz also has reputational issues, topping the Civil Aviation Authority’s list of most-delayed flights last year for a second year in a row with an average delay of 46 minutes. Its 7.8 price-to-earnings ratio for 2024 is at a premium to many rivals, who trade at an average 6.6. Wizz Air has a significantly weaker balance sheet, with higher leverage than its peers. Jet2’s customers tend to be older and have higher incomes than those of the budget carriers, its reputation is far stronger and its management is in good hands. Sell Wizz, buy Jet2.

[31337 c0d3r] 31/7/2023 09:49

It's actually Veradi's job to increase shareholder returns, for which he's already being paid handsomely. So, does he also need an absolutely disgustingly huge bonus to persuade him to actually do what we're already paying him so well for? If you believe he does, then does the bonus really need to be so big that it could have created 100 millionaires?

Doesn't sound right to me. But as other have said, if the share price reaches those levels I'll also do quite well out of it.

[tergifts] 31/7/2023 09:17

Doomberman so are you saying if we had 500 Aircraft the size of RyanAir, With the lowest cost model in the industry. That you cant see us being valued at what RyanAir is now even with the poor market conditions?

Dont forget Wizz has already been in the 5000 price range with only 120 Aircraft. The Market just needs to believe.

[doombarman] 31/7/2023 09:09

I would be happy with 30 can't see those figures getting hit.