Wey Education Share Discussion Threads

[abergele] 03/10/2018 21:35

Nice twist to the end of the days trading,,
perhaps we have turned,,,
lets see what's up tomorrow.gla

[sonie01] 02/10/2018 13:38

What an absolute dog of a share this is turning out to be. I have a fair bit of patience but this one is stretching it to its limits.,

[netcurtains] 02/10/2018 08:59

barnetpeter: Come on mate. Why would they need more money? They are loaded with cash at present (and cash must be rolling in as figures higher than last year).

The only reason for more cash would be if they wanted to buy something GIGANTIC...

[jonbirdy] 01/10/2018 21:14

Hey Daz, like you say, rather a shambles of an RNS, an area in which WEY have some form ;)

Rather a shame they manage to put their foot in their mouth in this way.

I hold, no plans to buy more from today’s ‘news’.

[westi1] 01/10/2018 19:18

barnetpeter12 Jul '18 - 14:11 - 1196 of 1550
0 0 1
Yes added yesterday and early this morning on this note from the company. Well done and thx for posting


Your most recent post I think.

What has changed bpeter for you to have probably sold what you recently added
and to now guess a placing at 12p?

[barnetpeter] 01/10/2018 18:33

Placing at 12p is my guess.

Holding a small stake but wont add until the placing.....I might be wrong of course

[mcfly79] 01/10/2018 17:36

This is to be expected though given the aggressive forecasts for the year as a whole.

[mcfly79] 01/10/2018 17:35

September is the key month of the year for students enrolling in InterHigh. Therefore having sales materially ahead of last year sets the tone for year.

I would expect the first half of this year to have higher InterHigh revenue that the second half of last year, plus the full contribution from A21 (and growth in the B2B business). Therefore I hope that first half revenue for this year will be a fair bit higher than the second half of last year.

[microscope] 01/10/2018 17:18

Surprised our resident linguist hasn't commented on this morning's RNS... ;)

[daz] 01/10/2018 17:16

OK, so I've highlighted a possible pessimistic interpretation to make a point because it hadn't been mentioned in the previous posts but the main point though is that the RNS is not clear, when it should have been.
I'm also not sure of the value about giving a trading update one month into the new financial year - it must be too early to tell.
After the investor presentation in London,they had already clearly guided not to expect much revenue from either of the Nigerian or Chinese JV's, so the delay should not have much effect, which the RNS reiterates

[netcurtains] 01/10/2018 16:41

Daz: lol. you should be on TV

[daz] 01/10/2018 15:46

The trading update is actually quite meaningless, when you read Mcfly's post 1536. This year's H1 is in comparison to the weaker H1 last year, so with revenues forecast to double, you would expect trading to be materially ahead.

As bones says above, there is no qualifier in regard to market or management expectations, so when they say '... divisions are reporting sales activity materially ahead', that could actually mean less growth than is less currently forecast and therefore be a warning.

A real shambles of a RNS in my opinion, it creates more confusion than if they said nothing.

[mcfly79] 01/10/2018 14:17

Thanks jonbirdy,

I've just read the SCVR. Paul Scott points out that the current year forecast is aggressive and that is why I am keen to see a breakdown of how they intend to achieve it. I've asked David Massie this before but understandable he couldn't give me specifics other than saying that he is comfortable with the forecast.

[netcurtains] 01/10/2018 13:52

Good news RNS. (China is less than minor compared to B2B growth).
Well done WEY!

[jonbirdy] 01/10/2018 13:45

Hey Mcfly, re: broker notes, this from this morning’s SCVR on Stockopedia.

Broker update - the house broker has put out a short note today, saying that it will not be making any changes to existing forecasts.

Does not look like it addresses your questions.

[mcfly79] 01/10/2018 13:36

Two of the three were mine plus the next two 50k trades (at 14.5p and 14.8p)

[s34icknote] 01/10/2018 13:23

Or are these kcr trades ?Sicknote

[s34icknote] 01/10/2018 13:20

Three 50 k sells at 8.01 at 13.5 p McFly

[mcfly79] 01/10/2018 11:58

I agree that there must be someone selling down. The trades from first thing this morning have now been reported and whilst some of the 50k purchases are shown as sells they were all buys.

[mcfly79] 01/10/2018 11:45

I've thought for some time that the current year just started could be a defining one for WEY if the current forecasts are met. With the strong forecast revenue growth we will see the real benefit of the operational gearing for the first time and the company will become cheap on current year multiples for the first time.

Forecast revenue for the current year is £8.4m (revenue last year was in excess of £4.1m). That's a big forecast increase but if achieved leads to forecast adjusted PBT of £1.95m and perhaps more importantly a forecast increase in cash of £1.7m. The current market cap is about £19m but knocking off the £4m in cash gives an enterprise value of £15m. That would put us on a cash flow multiple of under 10.

I'm keen to understand exactly how the revenue growth (from £4.1m+ last year to £8.4m this year) is going to be achieved. I hope we get a new WHIreland note soon that splits the revenue forecasts by division; the last time we had this was in the January 2018 note and things have moved on somewhat.

Revenue for last year exceeded £4.1m. First half revenue was £1,743k meaning second half revenue was maybe £2.4m - £2.5m. The first half numbers were much lower in large part because they only included £249k of revenue from A21 (2 months contribution) whereas the second half numbers included a full contribution.

Therefore I think it's reasonable to use an exit run rate from last year of close to £5m of revenue. Therefore we need to add about £3.5m to meet the current year target. We will get some International revenues from Nigeria and China for the first time this year, plus the Infinity division is now up and running with its first contract (Oxbridge tuition for Chinese school), but the bulk of the increase must come from the core UK businesses. It's encouraging to see that these businesses have started the year well.

[microscope] 01/10/2018 09:15

Good to see that trading is up on first month of previous financial year. Seem to recall they said something fairly similar for first two weeks in January or something along those lines. These very short term comments while obviously encouraging can't be too indicative of how the year will go.

Delay in China is neither here nor there really, though wouldn't want to see it drag along past results announcement at the end of the month.

It's been apparent i think for some time that there might be an overhang, judging by the gradual drift in the shareprice, and from overall volumes, recently, perhaps that's why people were able to buy so cheaply this morning.

[bones] 01/10/2018 08:59

I would be careful with interpreting the phrase "those divisions are reporting sales activity materially ahead of the equivalent position at this time last year". There is no mention of exceeding MARKET or BOARD expectations for the company as a whole. However it is encouraging that the core schools are continuing to grow as that was the main basis of this growth story for me.I think this RNS is more of a share price steadying report than anything else and suggests that investors should not lose sight of the main business rather than get too hung up on China.I do not currently hold.

[mcfly79] 01/10/2018 08:57

Yes - I was surprised that I managed to get some at 13.5p.

[jonbirdy] 01/10/2018 08:37

Reporting that the China JV has yet to be signed has presumably marked the price down, irrespective of the positives on the domestic front. It’s just a waiting game. I hold.

[superadams] 01/10/2018 08:25

Also just topped up- was expecting to pay a fair bit more after 8 am.