Westminster Share Discussion Threads

[falia] 27/12/2017 08:14

25p coming up today

[falia] 27/12/2017 08:14

that was quick

[glenkaz] 27/12/2017 08:12

Year high to be smashed 🤡✌A039;

[falia] 27/12/2017 08:12

20p today for sure guys

[youkme] 27/12/2017 08:01

taxdodge; made some lovely money on the back of that. You of all people should know nothing has actually happened yet. This company have been saying "shortly" for 6 years! we will see if that this time is correct. Interesting history of ramptastic RNSs feeds before placings though or even the dreaded "D" wouldn't you say.
In answer to your question though, I have no idea. I sold at 24p if you remember and i notice you went very quiet when this was at 9p. Lets hope this time they have actually signed something. I'd moved on tbh but happy to point out the negatives once again if you like?

[glenkaz] 26/12/2017 23:53

Has to break 20’s tomorrow 🤡✌A039;

[someuwin] 23/12/2017 18:17

Cheers Nick, great posts. This link seems to work better...

[nick2412] 23/12/2017 17:05

Just saw a link on the 'other' thread that, as mentioned, relates to an Oman test flight today and, I believe, concludes the final part of the recent trials for the Muscat new terminal. Enormous trial involving a targeted 17,000 Omani volunteers - I read that from another source that they managed to get 13,000 in the end.

[nick2412] 23/12/2017 16:34

Profit margin on the ME contract should be about 50%. There will be upfront costs hence the funding but this should primarily come from a bank loan backed by UKEF (UK Export Finance).

Reason for most if not all of the envisaged funding coming from a bank loan is because:-

a) WSG deliberately sought a replacement FD whose background has been heavily involved with UKEF.

b) In the context of Brexit the Govt is trying to help companies get contracts in non EU countries hence the countless references by WSG in the last 12 months to 'high level' UK Govt support.

c) the contract looks like it is quite probably Muscat / Oman with the new terminal trials set to conclude with the test flight which I think is today. Liam Fox announced in April this year that the amount of UKEF finance for companies with contract with Oman has been increased from £2b to £3b

d) The business model with WSG getting automatically paid direct by the airlines will easily meet the criteria of UKEF.

So most of the funds will come from UKEF and perhaps a small equity raise. 121m shares in issue now and conservatively I'd factor in 135m shares. The £2.5m loan is I believe convertible at 30p in June or July next year so that accounts for circa 8m shares as when the contract, that looks nailed on, is hopefully signed in January the share price should be well above 30p so I'd envisage conversion rather than repayment.

Once this LOI is converted into a contract then credibility is established both with the clients for the other MOU's and the market should give some weight to these. So a 15 year contract worth £22m for the initial phase with a 50% profit margin should get a decent P/E assigned. Also if it is Oman the passenger figures projected were 12m per annum but Oman has had growth and there is planned scope, subject to demand, for increased capacity right up to a maximum of 48m over time. Oman like a few ME countries has plans for a futuristic city.

The are other international upgrades as well which WSG may be involved in either from announcement on the contract or in additional phases.

So that leads to the question what m/cap should the market assign to a company (when it gets confirmation) with an initial phase contract of £22m, an estimated 135m shares in issue, profit margin of about 50%, scope to fund it primarily with UKEF and perhaps a small equity funding contribution. With a P/E of 10 we are looking at 74p . A P/E of 15 gives 111p.

I'd argue for the latter given the £22m figure is the first 'phase', there are other MOU's plus the potential border contract in the same area that will suddenly gain credibility and be factored in. Understandably, given the delays, these MOU's plus the potential border contract currently have zero value factored into the share price.

The market usually discounts so I wouldn't expect an immediate post contract £1 a share price but if the funding is, as I'd expect, primarily UKEF based then it should do over time. Pre-contract then I can see the price trending to mid 20's. Interesting times and a nice Christmas announcement.

[broncowarrior] 23/12/2017 12:09

Got a mention in the standard last night as well. This deal gets done will lead to other deals and away we go. Still think this can get to a quid by the end of next year.

[ianb5004] 23/12/2017 09:27

From The Times newspaper

As British politics endures its most turbulent period in living memory, Westminster Group has endured an equally volatile few months on the junior market. Shares in the security specialist surged 72 per cent after it updated investors on a “major project” in the Middle East. The first of several phases will be worth about €24 million each year, executives said.

The company, which provides security in and around vulnerable infrastructure sites such as airports and focuses on emerging markets, gained 6¾p to 16¼p. Westminster is down 23 per cent since the turn of the year, however, after the City grew tired of waiting for delayed contracts to materialise. The company is expected to reveal further details of the contract it outlined yesterday, including the location, in January. “The client now has one final internal approval process to complete,” it said, warning that “with any project of this size and complexity there can never be certainty of timing or outcome”.

“Whilst these negotiations have taken longer than expected, the company is pleased to report that senior management, including the chairman and CEO, have just returned from an extended visit to the country concerned and all but a few more minor commercial and contractual issues have now been agreed.”

Peter Fowler, the chief executive, is also the company’s second-largest shareholder, with 5.3 per cent. Hargreave Hale, the stockbroker owner by Canaccord Genuity, holds a 10.9 per cent stake. Sir Tony Baldry, the former Conservative environment minister, became chairman in June.

Having worked on security around Juba International Airport in South Sudan and the Nile river, Westminster is used to working in challenging environments. It has endured a bumpy ride on Aim, stooping to 8p in the years after its 2007 float before surging to 94¼p in 2013. It fell to 5½p, a record low, last year.

[dbnout76] 23/12/2017 08:26

Any thoughts on where this will in a months time?

[dave4545] 22/12/2017 14:12

Given the closing price they have probably missed a trick not using that crowdfunding site and just leaving it open over the xmas period to see what they could get at say 12p a share which of course is much lower than the close but way higher than the 9p recently and lets face it the stock has been a very weak 9p as well.

I bet they could raise £5-10 million in a few hours on that site.

[broncowarrior] 22/12/2017 13:59

For part of the funding they should do an open offer and warrant deal for PIs. That would be a very goodwill gesture and they would get it away easily at around this share price.

[babbler] 22/12/2017 13:53

Dave I totally agree. Trading share only .

[bionictwat] 22/12/2017 13:44

Agreed Dave look at kibo mining where Beaufort are involved and Sanderson capital

[runthejoules] 22/12/2017 13:08

Being in VAL & SEE for a modest amount I can see why dave is once bitten twice shy.

[tax dodge] 22/12/2017 12:24

Dave you don't bring much. A lot of lth have waited years for this news and it finally looks like next year could be a good year for this company. It's Christmas and investors can finally look forward to the new year with a smile on there face that just maybe PF and his not so useful bod have finally got something right and will deliver shareholders value. And all you can bang on about is a placing. Which you absolutely know nothing about. How much have you lost here. Anyway merry xmas to everyone and let's see what the new year will bring. Keep the faith.

[glenkaz] 22/12/2017 12:18

I make it 18p gap up 20p and whooosh! 🤡🚀

[falia] 22/12/2017 12:16

17p coming dave

[loobrush] 22/12/2017 12:09

24 million euro contract for 15 years = 360 million euros contract value
plus more to come

Profit @ 20% plus = 72 million euro

WSG valued at £19 million @16p


way to cheap

New year double or treble this and more -easy in new year