West. Coal Share Discussion Threads

[1chunk] 05/10/2010 17:24

Still going strong - nice to see ....

[pbracken] 05/10/2010 16:11

Great report, but I'm out for now. Bon courage.

[lasata] 05/10/2010 10:58

Euro gold price static and Yuan pog strong - both strong currencies so why is yuan pog breaking out and not in euros

[fidra] 05/10/2010 06:31

Rs2000 thanks for the full reply.looks like it reached £3.87,as you suggested.

[energiser01] 04/10/2010 15:07

Update has gone down well, increased guidance for 2011 also helping

dyor etc...

[rs2ooo] 03/10/2010 23:59

No fidra I don't as my system is already long.

Whether it gives a signal or not, I'd probably close at 387p anyway as I see resistance likely in that area. Obviously, if a sell signal came prior to that level, I'd close it out earlier.

This doesn't mean that it will stop going up at 387p, as a trader rather than an investor it is just the way I trade to keep risks down.

Sticking with miners, I don't look at many, but RIO has recently gone flat and is in the process of giving a short signal that needs a little lower to confirm. Not sure if WTN correlates with such big miners, but it's something to be aware of. This short signal is on the hourly and 4 hourly charts, not yet on the daily chart.

This would mean either that the overall RIO trend will remain up pending a small pullback, or it could mean that the daily is lagging the much quicker hourly and 4hourly time frames. More will become apparant over the next couple of sessions.

Back to WTN, I would not short it based on the 4 hourly target of below 301p simply because there isn't enough volume in that time frame to trust it. But I probably would be a buyer if it did go down to that level (only cos I missed the bottom in the first place).

If you want to see some charts of other stuff, click my username, though I do not discuss the working details of my system in any thread.

[fidra] 03/10/2010 18:59

Thats interesting RS2000, thanks.Have you anything showing a buy signal at present?

[rs2ooo] 03/10/2010 18:32

I'm in the process of developing a new trading system which has been quite impressive at times.

I've just run it over WTN.

The system gives a buy or sell signal and then it is my choice where I'd enter that trade based on nearby resistance/support etc.

Daily chart is long, not 100% sure where from, but I'm pretty sure it's from 287p but the initial signal to close out shorts and prepare for switching long was given on 31st August at 228p.

If I was long, I would most certainly be closing out at least half, if not all of the trade at 387p and would stay flat waiting for a base to form above that level before reconsidering longs again. It wouldn't matter to me if price continued up past that level...I would get out until it confirms itself as real support and that's that.

For short term trading, the 4 hour chart is still long, but is getting very close to providing a sell signal that should see price print below 301p. This sell signal may or may not materialise.

Now for the weekly chart.

This is going to shock some people so I'll explain first.

I have backtested my system over 100's of years worth of data (combined accross about a dozen 30 year charts and it was consistent in it's results.

The next short signal on the weekly chart which isn't close to arriving in the short term and could take anything from Weeks to Months or even years to form says that one day, WTN will need to print a low below £1.20

I am absolutely certain of the accuracy of this but remember until that signal is given, it is useless information, but, unless WTN just moves up all the way to infinity, that signal will arrive one day.

[fidra] 02/10/2010 11:52

Any chartists popping in with a view?

Last month we looked like we were selling on about 3 times possible earnings for 2011.The view I took was we could treble from there.

[mcmather] 01/10/2010 22:34

No technical basis for this but I wouldn't be surprised if WTN was approaching the C$8 mark by month end.

By 2013 they are looking to produce 10m tonnes pa. If the costs stay around the same as they are now (ie $100 p/t) but the price of coking coal increases - there was talk a little way back of $300 p/t by Q3 2011, albeit, that has not come to fruition - WTN would be in line of achieving profits of circa $1.5-2bn. How much would would a potential bidder be willing to pay to take over WTN? Would shareholders sell at, say, $15??


"On 22nd September 2010 the Company announced its intention to complete the move to the Official List before 31st December 2010. The previously announced effective date of 30th September 2010 is therefore no longer correct.

Should you retain your holding of Western Coal Ordinary shares we will update you in due course upon receipt of further information from the Company.

Should you however, wish to find more information about the move to the Official List, please visit the Western Coal website, www.westerncoal.com"

[mcmather] 01/10/2010 14:39

C$6 looming.

[mcmather] 30/9/2010 08:51

No. Don't know the date:-

"September 21, 2010 -Western Coal Corp (TSX: WTN, WTN.WT and AIM:
WTN) ("Company" or "Western") would like to reaffirm today its original
intention (announced on 4th August 2010) to conclude a planned move to trading
of its Common Shares on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange by 31
December 2010".

[qs9] 30/9/2010 08:11

is today first dealings on lSE? WHen is it please?

[waggle] 29/9/2010 16:59

which would give eps of 2-2.25$, so it all depends on how forward looking the market is.....either way it is a business which is a good fundamental hold.

[fidra] 29/9/2010 13:51

Thanks
mcmather

[mcmather] 29/9/2010 09:28

Not in any great detail fidra. However:-

Key operating points for fiscal Q1 2011; Benchmark hard coking prices were US$200 per tonne as compared to US$126 per tonne a year ago.

Cash costs at the Canadian operations of $105 per tonne.

Q2 2011 global prices settled at US$225 per tonne for hard coking coal and
US$180 per tonne for low volatile pulverised coal injection ("LV-PCI") coals.

Western has achieved record production levels in fiscal Q1-2011 and expects
further improvements in fiscal Q2-2011, thereby confirming that the Company
remains on track to achieve its stated goal of producing 6 million tonnes in
fiscal 2011;

Very rudimentary but on average WTN appear to be approaching US$100 profit per tonne / 6 million tonnes for the year / equals a healthy profit / equals a robust business?

[fidra] 28/9/2010 16:05

Soon be up to Gce shareprice.Which we have traditionally lagged.Anyone done any figures for the increased revenues we might expect?

[lasata] 27/9/2010 18:10

China and India: Still Hungry for Coal
By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Strategist, Casey Research



One can only hope that the "Don't shoot the messenger" adage is still popular in the international community. UK-based consultants M&C Energy Group have become the latest to join the chorus of voices asking the international community to increase the pressure on China and India to switch to cleaner energy sources.
As far as energy analyst David Hunter is concerned, it is the Western businesses that are carrying the financial burden of reducing carbon emissions. China and India, on the other hand, are benefitting from much cheaper energy, and their companies don't have to bear the costs of reversing the effects of global warming.

Mr Hunter, however, should steel himself for disappointing news. Industry experts are expecting anything but a cut in coal demand for the foreseeable future. By their analysis, global coal demand – already at a record high – will remain strong even as the recession cuts down on oil and gas use. And the numbers are certainly matching up to these expectations.

India's coal demand is expected to reach 653 million tonnes this fiscal year, with only 572 million tonnes expected to be produced in the country. The China National Coal Association expects demand to grow by between four per cent and six per cent in 2010 and for coal consumption to expand to roughly 3.4 billion tonnes.

And with power-starved economies to feed and millions of people to lift out of poverty, neither country is going to take kindly to any interference with its energy agenda.

There are two different types of coal – in fact two different types of demand – when it comes to the coal market. Though they can't be considered to be totally separate, the criticism levied against these two Asian tigers becomes somewhat blunted when we take this angle.

The first is for thermal coal, the cheapest and most popular way for emerging economies to produce electricity. Almost 75 per cent of China's electricity comes from coal-fired plants, but this picture is rapidly changing.

Irritated by the "world's biggest energy consumer" sticker, Beijing is investing heavily – US$736 billion – into clean energy investment plans. The aim: increase the non-fossil fuel supply component to 15 per cent of the total primary energy demand by 2020. So really, Mr Hunter's desire for a less coal-intensive China might just come true. As for India, it never likes to be too far behind its Asian rival.

The second type of demand is for metallurgical, or coking, coal. This is what China and India really need – good-quality metallurgical coal, something that North America has in plenty. And this demand is not going away anytime soon.

For a strong economy, one needs strong infrastructure. For strong infrastructure, one needs steel. Steel is the backbone of an economy, and it is metallurgical coal that is used to produce the heat in 90 per cent of the world's steel production processes. And for as long as the economy continues to blaze, it is metallurgical coal imports that will be stoking the furnace.

The heyday of the coal market is far from over. We've called coal the invisible bull market before. Today it's very much at the forefront of the market, and it isn't going away. Coal suppliers know as well which side their bread is buttered. While traditional markets in Europe continue to struggle with their debt crises, China and India will be only too happy to race on ahead and pick up the slack.

[qs9] 27/9/2010 16:35

nice new move again today...hopefully all ahead of move to official list

[qs9] 24/9/2010 17:49

looking good for further advances next week IMO. Inclusion into any index should IMO produce good demand for WTN stock. Lets see

[mcmather] 22/9/2010 11:08

Is it anything to do with the FTSE 250?

[ianbrewster] 22/9/2010 08:55

'...a premium listing on the Main Market'

a strange choice of words on the move from AIM

[lasata] 22/9/2010 08:22

Coking Coal – Imports in China grew by 23.2% last month recovering from the previous months drop. Imports for 2011 are expected to increase by 19% to 44 million tonnes from 37 million in 2010.