West. Coal Share Discussion Threads

[qs9] 17/9/2010 14:30

Bullish surely has to be move to the official list in terms of entering different indices which IMO should create some healthy demand to push this further as trackers are chasing scarce shares? DYOR but could be an interesting month ahead IMO.

[mcmather] 17/9/2010 12:37

Eeny / et al,

A bit clueless really re charts and all that. However, I can see that (LSE) the 20 day average is about to cross back through (up) the 200 day. I'm surmising that this is a bullish sign?? If so, is there a reason for this being a bullish sign other than that the share price is rising at that time?

[waggle] 16/9/2010 19:10

i concur eeny..both fundamentalists and chartists on this thread are prepared to put up strong theoretical arguments, not mere blarney

[eenyweeny] 16/9/2010 17:52

1chunk, many thanks for getting back to me. However it's not exactly the forthcoming response I was hoping for, so I'm afraid I'll have to class your orginal call as a merely glib but nevertheless lucky guess.
I do however look forward to your eventuall 'sell' call. If accurate that would change my opinion rapidly.

All the best.

[1chunk] 15/9/2010 19:57

hi there eeny,

If you follow the SKR BB you will have seen my correct prediction there too but i'm afraid i can't share how i call a "blow" or not.

What i will say is WTN still has a long way to go from here but albeit not as steep as we have seen recently.

[waggle] 15/9/2010 19:56

QS, the tse will still be the dominant market, so teh onpy really beneficial effect is likely to be a much tighter spread, not insignificant for traders, but o fless importance perhaps to fundamentalists

[qs9] 15/9/2010 17:12

Hopefully the drop is AIM funds selling down as not allowed to be on official list? Thoughts? Hoepfully once on LSE from 30-9-10 its market cap will propel it into funds needing their "weighting" hopefully starting to allow it to see a decent rating much higher from here!! DYOR...

[mcmather] 15/9/2010 16:54

Bye bye AIM:-

"It is expected that the Company's common shares of no par value each will be
admitted to the Official List of the UK Listing Authority and to trading on the London Stock Exchange's market for listed securities and simultaneously
cancelled on AIM effective at 8.00 a.m. on Thursday 30 September 2010, subject
to the receipt of the necessary approvals from the UK Listing Authority".

[mcmather] 14/9/2010 12:31

"Highly acquisitive"

On the smaller caps AIM-listed Western Coal broke through the £1bn mark in terms of its market value following an upbeat statement ahead of its annual meeting.

The highly acquisitive mining minnow said it was on track to double its coal production to 6m tonnes this year sending the shares up 28p to 295p.

[sammu] 13/9/2010 23:51

Keith on TV on the 9th:


Webcast from agm on the 9th:

First 15 minutes v. dull.

Pursuing opportunities outside of North America to access markets key emerging markets including Indian market...

Unicorn acquisition - not much detail given.

[mcmather] 13/9/2010 14:10

Think our friends across the water will like this update. I do!

"Western has achieved record production levels in fiscal Q1-2011 and expects
further improvements in fiscal Q2-2011, thereby confirming that the Company
remains on track to achieve its stated goal of producing 6 million tonnes in
fiscal 2011;

Market fundamentals for metallurgical coal remain strong, both in the short
and medium term, and the Company expects a continued growth in the global demand for its products during this period;"

[qs9] 13/9/2010 13:36

WTN looking good for £3.50 IMO at this rate,

[rs2ooo] 11/9/2010 14:10

eenyweeny - 2 Sep'10 - 21:33 - 788 of 796

It's very quiet on here these days. I'm sure the bounce of the last few days will have been detected by stock-screening algorythms? and subsequently trigger some researchers to drop in.
Maybe next week eh?

-----------------------------------------

Hi all.

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DouglasAllen - 24 Aug'10 - 21:09 - 769 of 796

Nearing a buy, almost on the trend line. I will take a position around 215p mark.

----------------------------------------

Excellent call mate, well done!
Same to eeny and PB who were also eyeing up similar levels, I think eeny even said 212p - 215p. My data provider shows a brief squirt to 211p as the low.

I totally missed this, been so engrossed in my own trading and various trading related projects I'm working on, but got to say, the TA here has been consistently accurate.

Of course, EJ's fundamental analysis has also been accurate! ;-)

Take care.

[fidra] 11/9/2010 10:47

Just to say thanks for the technicals.I enjoy the read and the analysis.I trade this one quite often.But have only started making again having bought in at 4.40 last time round and missed selling a few days later at 5.30 odd.I trade the Tsx because of the volume.
So a bit of a ride back to profit some six odd weeks later.Also the currency has moved against me and the canadian has been very volatile recently.

Long term I think this is a good share to be in for the rising volume of coal extraction.And the takeover possibility.

[pokerbrat] 10/9/2010 16:44

Some nice charts from Douglas and eeny recently, showing the breakout on volume after testing support. I missed the exact low, but had already been buying sub 250, so more than happy to be in here. We've reclaimed the 200SMA, which hadn't turned down, so the chart still looks very strong technically.

I am long-term bullish on WTN as the OBV indicator shown below is testing its highs while price is a long way from doing that. This shows that volume on buying days is outstripping volume on selling days, so there is still accumulation going on here.

I see a supply zone marked in red. The 50% fib of the recent correction runs right through that supply zone at $5.23. (Edit: Oops, just noticed my fibs are upside down, but the 50% is still correct) Would be interested to know where eeny's long-term fibs are in relation to that.

In accordance with my trading rules, I will be taking some off the table when we get into that red zone. But I have to say that these rules have cost me recently on WTN, as I have been lightening my positions too early. But rules is rules and successful trading is all about sticking to them.

[papillon] 10/9/2010 16:09

Resistance at 330p eeneyweeny?

[lasata] 09/9/2010 15:00

Pap:

Or other coal shares...........

[papillon] 09/9/2010 14:41

lasata. That article is a good reason to buy CHL!!

[lasata] 09/9/2010 14:15

FT:

The battle for resources between India and China has arrived in Indonesia, where Asia's emerging giants are scrambling to secure the vast supplies of thermal coal needed to fire their electricity plants and power economic expansion.

But a shortage of attractive, large-scale producers for sale and restrictive business conditions are driving fierce competition for assets in the world's leading exporter of the commodity.



Such long-term commitments show just how eager they are to buy into Indonesia.

Analysts say the model is likely to become more common as India and China aggressively try to make up a shortage of hundreds of millions of tonnes of coal in coming years. It is also a logical fit for their southern neighbour, which is trying to attract $160bn in foreign investment to revamp crumbling roads, power plants, ports and bridges.

Indonesia's vast reserves of thermal coal are a cheap and relatively close source for Asian buyers, but government red tape, corruption and a lack of buying opportunities are hampering possible mergers and acquisitions.

Still, there has been no shortage of activity in the sector this year, as India has made strong inroads.

Adani Group, the Indian conglomerate, said in August it was investing $1.6bn to build a railway line and coal terminal in remote Sumatra. That deal, which trumped an earlier Chinese bid, will increase Adani's Indonesian supplies, although it did not say by how much.

India's state-controlled power generator, NTPC, the country's largest power producer, also said it aimed to acquire stakes in two, as yet unnamed, Indonesian coal mines.

Tom Aaker, Standard Chartered's chief executive in Indonesia, expects the "huge appetite from overseas" to drive a wave of buying in the sector in the near future.

"They are trying to build their economy .̴1;. . so they are looking for a source of raw material and if they can own that source, it's even more secure," Mr Aaker told the Financial Times. "So, they are coming here all the time saying: 'Do you know anyone who has a coal concession for sale, because we want to buy it'."

And while China and India are leading the charge, Thai, Korean, Italian and Japanese companies are also on the lookout for acquisitions or coal-sourcing deals.

Churchill Mining, listed in London, is looking to sell a $1bn coal asset on Borneo and says it has received strong interest from the Indian coal majors, including Coal India, that have yet to complete any deals in Indonesia.

China became a net importer of coal in 2007 and a shift towards Indonesia followed soon thereafter. In July Shenhua, China's largest coal producer, announced a $331m coal project in Sumatra, and last October China's sovereign wealth fund injected $1.9bn into Bumi Resources, Indonesia's largest coal producer.

Rather than just mine resources, China is building two 150MW power generators, which will supply the local grid. "It's a win-win, since Shenhua gets the coal and the local economy gets the power," says Bai Zhongyi, an analyst at UBS.

Shenhua operates power stations and railways in China, and is expanding coal production abroad with the goal of producing 15m tonnes overseas by 2015, up from none last year.

The tie-up between Bumi and China Investment Corp, the sovereign fund, was seen as a further sign of China's interest in the sector. Bumi said it expected to sell 13m tonnes of coal to China this year. China's coal consumption was almost half of the global total last year, according to the BP statistical review.

It is poised to overtake Japan as the largest importer of thermal coal. India, meanwhile, consumes about 7.5 per cent of global exports, but that number is set to grow. "If India ramps up and starts competing with China for resources [abroad], things could get quite heated up in terms of the price," Mr Bai said.

Indonesia recently overtook Australia as the world's largest supplier of thermal coal. Exports jumped fourfold between 2000 and 2010. Production was projected to rise 7 per cent to 280m tonnes in 2010, led by purchases from China, India, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, said the Indonesian Coal Mining Association.

"The industry as a whole is gearing up for exports," said Rudi Vann, a regional coal analyst for Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy, citing the recent investments in Indonesia. "We are talking about quite a lot of activity. A major chunk of it is to China and India."

[eenyweeny] 08/9/2010 20:31

1chunk. Come on, where are you?
I would like to see your analysis of last week that brought you to your currently correct conclusion.

thanks

[mcmather] 03/9/2010 14:53

Nice start across the water. Finish today around the C$4.50 mark with a little bit of yo-yo'ing in between?

[eenyweeny] 02/9/2010 21:33

It's very quiet on here these days. I'm sure the bounce of the last few days will have been detected by stock-screening algorythms? and subsequently trigger some researchers to drop in.
Maybe next week eh?
(48128)

[eenyweeny] 02/9/2010 13:30

1chunk, come on, spill the beans, the rest of us do!

Please post your analysis in here so we can all study it too. It's the friendly way on a friendly board.


In post 769 DouglasAllen pointed out the rising supportive trendline.
In post 775 I mentioned the rising trendline in conjunction with the support potential immediately beneath that t/l created by the 500 day EMA.
Pure technical analysis from my part, no fundamentals.

Here is my ShareScope chart to show the power of that 500 day EMA support.
It also shows an old Fobonacci level that has worked perfectly too.

Chart1.


Chart 2, zoomed in to recent time period.



These two support patterns are strong indeed, particularly as WTN charts on both LSE & TSE respond astoundingly well to TA signals. HOWEVER momentum of WTN price movements depends on overall market direction and this week we will see twists and reversals galore. Next week will be very different as market volumes return to normal etc. after the summer doldrums ease.
(47971)

[gowtn] 02/9/2010 02:15

yeah say more your a guru!

[eenyweeny] 01/9/2010 16:48

Yes, you do need to say more, please?