West. Coal Share Discussion Threads

[qs9] 25/11/2010 02:13

NZ mine closure - will this move price of coal North as well? Good recovery signals IMO from markets this week esp. DOW so hopefully will see wTN keep chugging along to £7

[hpotter] 24/11/2010 18:16

Would be ironic if GCE share price overtakes WTN's.

[hpotter] 24/11/2010 18:13

I'm going to hold WTN at least until the T/O is confirmed (about another 1 week). Surely the share price will be then go to only a few % less than C$11.50. Wish I'd kept all my shares from Cambrian days but at least I've got a few k left.

I think that the risk of Walter pulling out is less than of a rival bid appearing.

The rise in Walter share price suggests the market thinks WTN is a good deal for them. I wonder what the cash % will be?

[fidra] 24/11/2010 17:27

Anyone here trade gce. I don t but I was thinking about doing so.

I think it is oversold here and they don't appear to be getting the volume .

[waggle] 24/11/2010 15:39

definitely oversold, but what really amazes me is GCE...

[qs9] 24/11/2010 15:05

Looks over sold IMO given what is on the table IMO....anyone agree?

[fidra] 23/11/2010 16:39

hmmmmmmmmm.

[fidra] 22/11/2010 20:30

Forgot about that one.

Bought some more today at 10.54.

[waggle] 22/11/2010 20:11

gce is certainly playing catch up>>>

[sammu] 22/11/2010 09:08

RS2000
I've found your posts over the last year or so interesting. I don't see how you could incorporate predicting unknowable events into your model. It is just a risk of trading rather than investing that you might be out when a T/O is announced.

The only way is if there is so much insider information leakage that it gets fully into the charts.
Non-farms and FOMC releases are scheduled and a different kettle of fish.

[lasata] 21/11/2010 18:02

FT:

"Audley is now looking for other turnaround opportunities, especially in mining and natural resources"

If anyone knows where Audley are looking - please advise...........

[rhubarbe] 21/11/2010 17:42

Holding these in the wife's SIPP. Thinking I may as well sell up and find another gravy train to ride...

[ianbrewster] 20/11/2010 21:52

A mixture of cash and shares - ratio not yet decided.

[rhubarbe] 20/11/2010 20:46

I don't want NYSE shares either. Is this a paper only deal, or do we get cash?

[jzd] 20/11/2010 17:48

Personally I am not so happy.
We do not get as good a deal as Audley.
We face Capital Gains Tax or given the option of Walter shares much diluted growth prospects.
Let us hope that there is a counter-offer, but given that Western's Execs will be tempted to fill the interim executive slots at Walter, the chances are that they will recommend the current deal fairly quickly, rather than seriously casting around for a better one.

[waggle] 20/11/2010 09:22

or unless a counter-offer is made....aydley have not sold all of their stake, albeit they have bagged the majority!!

[oilbagger] 20/11/2010 09:21

Note Walter moved fast because they became aware of the availability of the Audley Capital's (VC fund) large shareholding. The deal was brokered by Audley

"Western also announced that it was informed today by its largest shareholder,
Audley European Opportunities Master Fund Limited ("Audley"), that Audley has
signed an agreement to sell approximately 54.5 million common shares of Western
(representing approximately 19.8% of Western's 276.1 million basic common shares
outstanding, excluding common shares held by wholly-owned subsidiaries of the
Company) to Walter at a price of $11.50 per share, or total consideration of
approximately $630 million, subject to adjustment in certain circumstances.
Western is not a party to the share purchase agreement."

See also



On the audio conference to investors from Walter



it confirms the exact mixture of shares and cash has not been decided. The two business do seem a natural fit and I can see the attraction of Western Coal for Walter

[oilbagger] 20/11/2010 02:20

As mentioned above it doesn't give the breakdown of cash and shares so the final combination is fixed at $11.50. This is unfortunate as WTN shareholders don't benefit from the rise in Walter Energy shares over the past few days (9.34% on Friday alone). The market seems to have give the takeover a warm reception from Walter's shareholder's perspective so their approval looks to be in the bag. Therefore the deal will go through (unless any nasties turn up in the due diligence) so there could still be a bit of money (74c) to be made.

[rs2ooo] 19/11/2010 22:25

The price action here has been an interesting test for my system.

The daily chart switched short and remains short from 441p

The hourly chart never switched short and nor did the 4 hourly, but they were both very close.

The 5 minute chart was short from 499p and reversed long at 451p.

So, in these cases the smaller time frames would have potentially kept you in long positions until the sell signal on the daily time frame filtered through to the smaller time frames - which ultimately would have given a better short entry level had one materialised.

But in reality, I didn't view it this way. The daily switched short and because that is the "biggy", I'd have probably closed longs and switched short on that signal alone, in fact, my Mum sold out at 442p based on the info I gave her from my system. Fortunately she is on holiday right now, so cannot kill me!

I day trade FX and Indices, but with stocks, I buy and sell them based on the daily chart, only using smaller time frames to pinpoint entries, but not so much for exits.

I could easily have been on the wrong side of the trade here, so further refining work is required, or, ultimately, a new system rule that all time frames must align to validate a trading signal.

My system already accounts for non-farms releases and FOMC releases that cause major spikes and volatility on Indices in smaller time frames, so although unexpected news such as here cannot be charted, it is my aim to incorporate it into my system to minimise risk.

I do hope nobody sold their full holding prior to the rise based on my system alone.

Be interesting to see how the daily sell signal resolves itself.

I am now a teeny bit annoyed for selling out at 387p, but, the reasons behind that exit remain as valid today as they did then - the highest probability price projection had been achieved, and beyond that could not be assured.

[zorija] 19/11/2010 21:15

HP,
My interpretation too...
ZZZ

[hpotter] 19/11/2010 21:06

Am I right in my reading of the RNS. The price is $11.50, no matter what the Walter Energy share price. The cash or number of shares just gets adjusted to $11.50.
Hence no change in WTN share price although the Walter Energy share price has increased.

[fidra] 19/11/2010 17:56

Interestingly the company who are buying wtn have seen their shares go up .up 4.5% so far today.

[fidra] 18/11/2010 20:35

Cheers seagreen.
I know you have been around a while too.

Not sure it is over personally,there could still be at todays price now about 8% for holding a few weeks.Judging by the volume this is still in play.And another bidder could come forward.

Walter Energy are up today on the announcement.So it must also be a good deal for them in this market climate.