Vphase Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 11/4/2008 11:55

bronek, I have not invested in VPHA, I think they are a very promising company but as far as I can see they are very risky when they have no historical accounts and no orders. I was invested in QTI a few months back and sold out at a decent profit, they were a very similar company focusing on eco-efficiency, small cap, small product range, big ideas and a lot of potential but they are not posting big orders yet and the share price has drifted back after I sold out. I am keeping an eye on VPHA and I might well come in at some point, but I just think that at this stage it is much more of a 'punt' than an 'investment'. I don't intend to de-ramp at all but I expect a retracement to 4-5p and at that point I might be interested.

PS when I looked into it a few months ago, I seem to recall calculating that only 1% of the shares were in the hands of private investors, which is very risky.

Edit: DYOR!

[bronek1959b] 11/4/2008 06:55

cyberbub.all share price movements are not related to buy or sells .market makers are a clever bunch and are,nt always transparent .it is wise to be cautious when investing,just as a matter of interest do you have any shares in this company,and if not ,what companies are you invested in.your research is obviously well thought out and i would imagine you will only invest in companies that are rock solid sure things ,if there is such a thing.also keep on bringing the £500 trades if what you say is true.

[cyberbub] 10/4/2008 20:50

There we go, a trade of less than £500 moves the share price up by 1.6%.... this share is dangerously illiquid IMHO, DYOR etc

[cyberbub] 09/4/2008 13:20

I did think that it might become compulsory on all new build homes (and offices for that matter), but the Govt would never do this if there were only one supplier, they would want to see at least 2 or 3 suppliers of similar technology, or else they would be accused of being anti-competitive. So VPHA would have to pitch in with other suppliers.

I am not sure whether what VPHA offers is particularly unique, voltage regulation technology has been around for many years, but I think the difference is possibly the ease of use that is offered.

[bronek1959b] 09/4/2008 08:06

cyber.agree with most things you say .but what other applications are there for this technology.could it be built into appliances .10%is a good saving and europe and north america are also targets.new builds could be forced by government legislation to have updated consumer units with this technology as standard.it is arisk but so is all investing.

[cyberbub] 08/4/2008 21:51

if a product only comes onto the market in H2 2008 they will not be likely to make large sales in their 2008 figures.

however in 2009 we could make any guess we liked.

if the product is proven to have a genuinely beneficial impact, lets say that marketing and sales do their job in 2008 to achieve sales of 500,000 units in 2009 (ie. a penetration of roughly 1% of UK households - thinking particularly of sales to new build - though the new build market may turn down due to the credit crunch).

say each unit costs £100, which is a total stab in the dark but I would think it must lie in the £50 - £150 range otherwise it might start to be unattractive to the domestic retro-fit market, a price of £150 plus installation costs of £100 might take 6-7 years to recoup the investment in a typical house if the 10% electricity saving figure is accurate. in fact let's be conservative and say that each unit is priced at £70.

lets say that total cost of a unit manufactured in china and transported to the uk, including all the marketing effort and overheads, is £50.

that would give a pre-tax profit per unit of £20.

times 500,000 units makes £10M PTP.

earnings per share with 650,000,000 shares in issue, would be 1.5p

giving a p/e ratio of about 5 at today's share price of 8p.

not bad at all, and in a bull market i would think that even at 8p this would be an excellent play for the 12-month timeframe. there appears to be decent management and they have a larger parent company for some support.

my concern is that today's market is driving down a lot of very good companies with proven track records to p/e ratios of 5 - 10. given that vpha is very much an unproven minnow, at this stage i think it might be a bit risky to invest at 8p. i invested in PARO recently, and have lost all my money so maybe i am being excessively wary??

i am going to wait to see a retracement, i might start to pick some up at 4-5p, on the other hand i might completely miss the boat!!

of course this is all pure speculation on my part, i don't think we have any indication of how much the units might cost, or how much profit might be made on each. DYOR etc!

EDIT: PS one other thing worries me that i have mentioned before, namely the volatility. purchases of literally £1000 or less are pushing the price up by 2-3%. this indicates a very illiquid share, and it will only need a couple of profit-taking sales of £10K for the share price to take a nose-dive, probably taking out stop-losses etc

tell me if i have got anything wrong here!

[bronek1959b] 08/4/2008 13:50

very happy with results and they hope to have a product by the 2nd half of 2008.

[crisplex] 08/4/2008 08:53

this looks like its only going in one direction for the near future

[elmfield] 08/4/2008 08:19

egx had results today, seem O.K to me?

[bronek1959b] 08/4/2008 08:06

little rise to start the day.anylists meeting today also .

[bronek1959b] 08/4/2008 07:30

well good results in that they have acheived all the targets that they set out.the wording is very positive we have generated significant interest in utilities and housing associations and are developing a 120volt version for the american markets.10%energy saving is a lot if every household in britain and then america and europe .how much would that be worth?

[bronek1959b] 06/4/2008 12:30

my only concern is why have,nt egx risen in tandem.?

[bronek1959b] 06/4/2008 12:29

well fellow posters .could count you on one hand .tuesday is results day and will be an indication of what they have been doing over the last 6 months or so.why the rise?milliom dollar question .we shall probably find out tuesday.

[bronek1959b] 04/4/2008 13:51

another day of rises .tuesday is results day and analysts meeting.sure we will find out then if anything is behind the share price movements.31k traded .large spread.

[bronek1959b] 04/4/2008 06:54

cyberbub,tend to agree with your caution .the thing that i always like about an share price rise is the steady gradual rise and not the sudden spike andthe fact that not many people know about vphase and so the money that is coming in for vphase is coming from people behind the scenes and could these investors know something we don,t .does that thing go on ??
SURELY NOT!!!

[cyberbub] 03/4/2008 23:57

I have been keeping an eye on this for a while and although I recognise the potential of the technology, whether it justifies a trebling of share price in 5 months since launch is mostly a stab in the dark. As far as I recall, there are very few shares in circulation so there is potential for a huge rise or a huge fall. Well done to everyone who has trebled their money, perhaps I am just jealous! :-) DYOR etc

[bronek1959b] 03/4/2008 13:39

dorset .my honest opinion is i don,t know just what the potential is or where share price could go but 8 april will in my opinion have some significance.good luck.

[dorset64] 03/4/2008 11:00

Thanks for that Bronek, have been looking for a while but, with the share price rise that its had, I have been waiting for a retrace but not so. How much further, in your opinipon and nothing held on you here, has this one to go.

Keviun

[bronek1959b] 02/4/2008 19:46

not a lot to offer you dorset.the technology they have is to do with voltage control.240 volts as you will know is what the customer is supplied into their property.most appliances throughtout the home use less than this ,sometimes as little as 216volts.vphase have a device that is fixed to consumer units or is part of or built into new consumer units and after tests was found to save quite a large amount of energy.when tested it exceeded their expectations.dr henry cialone has been added to the board of energetix who own vphase and will be helping vphase to introduce their products to the north american market ,which could be huge.april 8 is the results date and there is also a presentation planned for that date .could be anything ,but someone is nibbling away at these and as you can see from the share price graph the share price is responding positively.

[dorset64] 02/4/2008 19:15

any broker reports bronek that I can look at. Any info greatly received and thanks

Dorset

[bronek1959b] 02/4/2008 19:00

another risetoday .only 8k traded.6 more days before results!

[bronek1959b] 01/4/2008 20:35

get the feeling we are very close to news now.are there any more human beings out there willing to talk about what might be going on here.?????

[bronek1959b] 01/4/2008 17:23

another 100k traded tday and spread closed to o,25p.rising on relatively little volume .

[bronek1959b] 28/3/2008 20:58

sold afew yesterday.just taking a bit of profit.interesting was given 6.9 for my sell when spread is 6-7.any thoughts anyone.

[bronek1959b] 27/3/2008 19:01

nobody unless closely connected to the company knows what is going on and it may come to nothing .but for a company that you seem to have a problem with james there is quite a bit of volume most days and the share price is rising steadily.the technology they have could be a winner or loser but imho we will soon find out .i can remember nxt at £23 AND IT HAD NOT SOLD A PRODUCT ,NOW ITS IN THE PENNIES BUT IT ROSE ON EXPECTATION .petrel resources potentialy could be worth a fortune if it wins contracts in iraq and the oil reserves are in the billions of bopd yet it is a fraction of cairn energy,s share price who knows what will move an share price and sometimes its not how much a company makes in profit.this is not being ramped by aherd and there are few posters on this thread to talk this up .SO WHY THE RISE???