Volga Gas Share Discussion Threads

[tradermel] 18/2/2011 13:02

Well we will have results in 6 weeks ...... and I have taken a position at 97.1, which may not be the bottom for now, but we'll see.

[corrientes] 18/2/2011 13:01

Maybe there's some concern that the Trans Nafta problem hasn't been resolved yet despite Court ruling. I hope GNU are not a bunch of mafia players.

[tradermel] 18/2/2011 12:51

I'm happy tad .... as I am still on the outside watching the bus I though I'd missed reverse back :0)

[tadtech] 18/2/2011 12:40

Gentlemen

I am rather bemused at the pull back here which seems to be caused by a combination of Capital Group International selling out their remaining modest holding and PI's jumping ship as the share price drops.

The more 'astute' types may like to consider how quickly this bounced from 92p to £1.24p recently, only a matter of a few trading sessions. It has now re-traced obviously and the RSI is now sitting in a position where the re-rating started.

The last meaningful operations update was on the 4th November and news on a number of fronts must be due.

Note the drop has been generated on low volume and how the last two strong up moves have been triggered by a one day spike in volume.

[tradermel] 17/2/2011 10:51

I'm afraid I see fair value at 160-200 and the 200+ was only seen on the anticipation of sucess of the failed GF-1 well. The VM GPU getting sorted and new news will rate it higher.

[the big fella] 17/2/2011 10:49

And a £2 + plus valuation would bring them broadly in line with peers.

[tadtech] 17/2/2011 10:46

We value Western Siberian reserves at around $4.8-5.0/barrel From FT Alphaville


Booked reserves at VGAS are circa 68m barrels so based on the above it would lean to a market cap of circa £200m (£2.50 a share) against the current £84m (£1.07p)

Of course VGAS has reached as high as £5 in the past.

[tradermel] 17/2/2011 10:20

Been in and out of this one since 2009 and made good money on it. All that time it has been under PI's radar, not really sure why. Most the oilers that get pushed on these BB's are hopless compared with VGAS. Still on the outside but still looking, and I'm not really sure why I'm still out!

[the big fella] 17/2/2011 10:09

Tad - yup that sums things up pretty nicely and why I have accumlated at these levels.

[tadtech] 17/2/2011 09:52

The shares have consolidated around £1.05p and the RSI is now comfortable. Another move up seems on the cards ahead of expected news. £1.40p/£1.50p short term still looks possible.




Well funded, cash at 1st Nov 2010 $25m, positive cash generation also.

Booked reserves in excess of 65m barrels

Drilling activity in H1..2 wells planned

Likely positive outcome to Legal situation which dogged VGAS through 2010...News expected shortly possible $20m cash or infrastructure equivalent upon court success.

Stable production of c1500bopd

Solid institutional shareholder base, small free float, only 80m shares in issue...moves fast!

Rising oil prices, could benefit from improved tax regime in Russia

News-flow expected

Under most PI's radar.

[eric76] 17/2/2011 09:50

Feels a bit more bullish today, maybe worth putting on watch in case its time to bounce imo.

[eric76] 16/2/2011 14:04

That'd be timely perhaps also the catalyst for higher volumes and a break upwards again. Good that support has held through its quiet period though imo esp with the lse not helping sentiment the last couple of days.
Looking forward to the next assault on 120p anyway.

[corrientes] 16/2/2011 13:34

On a three monthly reporting basis, we should hear something soon.

[tadtech] 16/2/2011 13:21

On-line limits are surprisingly strong currently. Always a good sign!

[the big fella] 14/2/2011 09:58

I see no reason for these not to double from here over the next couple of months. They are cheap compared to peers. This looks a great entry point on the chart.

[eric76] 14/2/2011 09:53

It certainly flew through the 120p mark last week before the will he won't he resign debacle brought it back for the retest.
Be interesting to see how far the next leg takes it if it is thinking of making its next move up, still looks to have a long way to go to recover the old highs anyway.

[tadtech] 14/2/2011 09:48

Buyers starting to re-appear.

I wonder how quickly this will move on sustained demand. Three and a half months since last real operations update. News cannot be far away.

£1.40/£1.50 still looks a distinct possibility short term.

[eric76] 11/2/2011 13:10

105 still holding. Good strong and long support here then.

[eric76] 10/2/2011 15:09

It held the 105p level well imo, good to see on such a down day for the markets generally.
Fingers crossed for the strong bounce then.

[tadtech] 10/2/2011 14:25

Market cap £85m

2p reserves 68m barrels

Production 1500 bopd

Cash $25m

Further cash or infrastructure to value of $20m possible dependent on legal outcome

Reserves valued at only $1.20 barrel

Drilling programme ahead, at least 2 wells in H1

[corrientes] 10/2/2011 09:37

Seems minimal activity results in large movements in this share. A bit scary for some, but wait for the real news.

[eric76] 10/2/2011 09:24

Them big arrows were always going to be trouble.
The stock has come down to the level fingers predicted a "big bounce" from though so will be interesting to see how it goes from here.

[ihavenoclue] 10/2/2011 09:14

Tadtech ... you were saying ?

[tadtech] 10/2/2011 07:58

It was not possible to buy in any size yesterday. I feel the MM'ers are trying to flush out stock from weak holders. This will bounce very quickly. £1.40 is still a realistic short term target.

[tadtech] 08/2/2011 08:11

Chart says it all in my book and valuation towards £2 would not be unrealistic either