You are always negative amt! Vietnam gov have already decided to buy more planes etc from USA to rebalance trade to reduce tariff impact. |
My take away from the article is the Trump victory has created a lot of uncertainty for emerging markets.
I can't see Trump allowing manufacturing to move from China to Vietnam. He wants it back in US.
If he slaps on 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports then that's bad news. There is a significant and growing trade imbalance between Vietnam and US.
I won't be investing. |
Yes this looks oversold now, I've taken an initial position this morning. |
BGCG have announced a 100% tender offer at NAV less expenses if they underperform their benchmark over the next 4 years. Discount was 15% but they've opened slightly up. It does not really guarantee any upside - just limits downside to benchmark underperformance plus maybe 14%. If they underperformed by 10%, the tender offer would reduce the discount so shares beat it by 4%. If they outperfromed by 1%, tender would not be activated so discount could actually expand. Bit of an odd one to call. |
435p/584p = 25.5%. And VNI currently up slightly. |
Very good overview of Vietnam on veil site yesterday |
I've been both a trader and investor in the two Vietnam funds since early 2009. The normal range of the discount is 10-20%. So, 25% is somewhat high. However, in a bear market it can easily hit 30% or more as locals panic. That tends to not last very long and represents a great buying opportunity.
Unfortunately, right now the US Bond market seems to be weighing on everything except crypto where the high risk punters are playing. In such an environment the good, the bad and the ugly get hit.
Well done,shaker. |
I’ve put a few £ in here - will give it a few years. |
You say extreme discount, It's large but not out of the ordinary.
Yes it is. It's not a record but rarely touched 25% in recent years if you knock out March 2020. 25% seemed to be the signal for it to bounce back each time. The more usual limit for a bounce was actually 22-23%.
h ttps://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/T/I161/vinacapital-vietnam-opportunity-ord-$001
P/E does look to have fallen a little. This is from the VEIL article:
Consequently, expected returns in Vietnam's equity market may lag earnings growth. While this risk is notable, the valuation of our Top-80 universe of stocks remains at 11.6x based on projected 2024 earnings, compared to the five-year historical average of 13.9x, suggesting limited room for further de-rating due to support from domestic investors seeking value. |
You say extreme discount, It's large but not out of the ordinary.
What I don't understand with Vietnam is that profits of companies are often quoted at growing at 20% per annum and yet the market falls while at the same time the PE ratio for the market doesn't seem to fall. |
Discount here is now an extreme 25.2%. (434p v 580p) |
Interesting VEIL Q3 report: |
Vnh often buys back at nav not share price Just cashed all mine in at a handsome profit and will reinvest at the next lull |
andyj
If both had similar assets but one is on a discount then surely you buy VOF as you have the opportunity to close the discount. |
Hanoi apartment market prices and volume strengthen further while HCMC apartment market volumes remain very low but prices rise. |
Well if Vietnam does go into consistent growth it may not matter which fund to get looking at say a 5 year period. |
Yes I see now there's a difference. My claim was based on a meeting with a Vinacapital representative, who told ne they were identical, but that was in January.I assume VESAF trades at NAV whereas VOF has a sizeable discount. Additionally VESAF has exit costs. Difficult to decide which to invest in.. |
Thank you for drawing my attention to VESAF.
I just checked the factsheets for VOF and VESAF (September 2024).
They don't have the same holdings. For example, ACB is top of the VOF list at 13.9% and it is at just 4.7% in VESAF.
More interestingly, they also have different metrics reported on their monthly documents.
VESAF give us PE,PB, ROE, yield, portfolio turnover, Sharpe ratio & number of equities. All in a nice table.
VOF hide the PE in the text & I don't see PB, ROE or yield.
I prefer the VESAF format. |
Half of the explanation is GBP vs Vietnamese Dong exchange rate. But still a big difference! |
Intriguingly VESAF which is the Vietnamese version of this fund for locals and expats, is up 19% since January. Same holdings... |
Foreverbull,
Charting is certainly not an exact science but next best thing to a crystal ball :) . it seems to me that VOF has good support at about 325 level and so quite close to support . I do short stocks using CFDs sometimes but not an investment trust trading at such a steep discount to NAV for obvious reasons as much better opportunities elsewhere, eg BME . good luck with VOF if you hold stock and hope it does turn decisively around for you soon. I must check the charts for Vietnam indices as VOF will follow their trend normally . |
Well 31337, he is a proven liar in mould of Johnson and let's hope it is another one :) |
When it comes to 'the art of the deal' Trump is Van Gogh.
When he declares tariffs on every country, he's just strengthening his hand ahead of negotiations. It's not going to happen. |
I agree spangle. And maybe now he has power and doesn't need the rhetoric, he will become aware that Fortress USA is bad for usa. Tariffs are inflationary, and 95%+ of global population live outside usa, representing a great export market- which a trade war will suppress.
Net, I don't see much for vietnam to fear |
I think you're a bit broad brush with "trump win is a mini disaster for emerging markets".
The graph of BRFI indicates that it's more country-specific |
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