Taking offence? Not at all. Just bored with aimless posts, mostly overly negative and not adding anything useful |
If you want to get into market performance the Vietnam main index is down 18% over 3 years.
Ft index up 14%
I think my assessment is broadly correct.
You would have been better of investing elsewhere certainly in the last 3 years and generally over 5 years.
I stand by my statement.
Does Aleman stand by his recent analysis of earnings ?
Do you stand by your assertion Ken that I am posting nonsense ? |
I would say up 20% over 5 years depending on exactly which date you choose which isn't progress in my book. I would have got more in the bank.
Even 30% is a poor return compared to elsewhere. That's debatable and depends on what you think is a good return.
You quibble about that Ken infact you don't quibble you slam my post as nonsense but you don't quibble about the misleading statement about earnings growth that Aleman wrote which was completly contradicted by the VOF monthly report.
That's important because anyone reading this BB could have been mislead. |
 31337 CoDcR
You’ve misunderstood my post. I’m all FOR sensible bearish posts and would like to see more of them, including on this thread. E.g a legitimate debate is the underperformance of VOF compared with VNH for a long time now.
What is wrong is when posters like amt post nonsense. E.g on the performance of Vietnam generally.
Yes …for a while now the Vietnam index has been stuck in a narrow 1200 to 1300 trading range.
BUT despite that over 5 years it is up 30%.
In contrast the best performing UK index the FTSE100 is up only 13% over 5 years.
The FTSE 250 is flat over 5 years.
And the awful performing FTSE AIM ibex is DOWN 30% over the last 5 years.
(Yes. Vietnam and everywhere has way underperformed the very high flying US and the likes of India and Japan have done better than Vietnam) but 30% in 5years compares very favourably with the UK which is where a lot of UK posters invest.)
Come on AMT. what’s your reply to those facts? I.e what is your evidence for your claims about Vietnam performance? Please post it for us. |
Friday's and Monday's gain to add to NAV means the discount could be well over 26% now, though the exchange rate movements sometimes catch me out. One wonders just how far the growing discount can go. Add back the 23p that was wiped off the private investements (but still trying to reclaim some ) at the finals and NAV would actually be close to a 2-year plus NAV high. You would have no idea if you looked at the share price. |
Thankyou 313. Yes it's not as if I have been rude or offensive. You are of course correct that the views posted won't have the slightest impact on the underlying investment.
I find many BBs useful when determining whether to make an investment. Unfortunately this BB has got too much bias and now false information, therefore I have challenged posters to try and get better information but alas failed. Hence I shall use other sources going forward when making decisions in the future as to whether to invest or not. |
amt - well said. I've been fully invested in Vietnam for several years and appreciate reading your contrarian views.
I don't understand why some posters take such offence. Do they think the share price is artificially held up, and fear it falling if the wrong words are spoken?
The views posted on here will never change the share price destination. |
I do have a stake but sold 90% a while back which was good timing.
Kenmitch I wrote "in the last few years."
The market hasn't made progress in the last 5 years.
Your doubling in the last ten years was mostly achieved up to July 2018. Now we are almost back to that level. It's a fact, not nonsense.
The UK markets performance has been relatively poor ( Brexit etc) so interesting you compare it with that. Why not Nasdaq or Dow Jones or India for that matter.
For the record I did well out of my Vietnam investment earlier but changed my mind about the future and sold much of my investment So you can call it nonsense if you like but try and look at your investment objectively rather than picking time periods to try and justify a statement. You will see its gone down recently.
As for the guy who filtered me, then more fool him.
You will note that what Aleman wrote about earnings growth was contradicted by VOFs own monthly report. So don't believe everything you read and he admitted himself he wrote a statement that wasn't even a quote from an article.
So my writings are giving balance and truth.
I am inclined not comment further and waste my time here. Good luck but be alert and realise this BB sees everything through Rose tinted spectacles.
Thank goodness I ignored his view and sold 90% of my investment. It's saved me from a considerable loss. I might reinvest next year if things under Trump become clearer but I shall be viewing posts on this BB with a large dose of scepticism. |
If I’m remembering correctly, India was making a lot of progress before the funds and the market started appreciating seriously. |
amt
Do you realise that the Vietnam Index has doubled in 10 years, compared with just 20% for the FTSE100, 15% for the FTSE250 and the AIM index is DOWN 10% over 10 years?
I’ve held both VOF and VNH for most of this century. They’ve been very successful investments.
It’s good to read sensible bearish posts to counter the positive ones, but not your nonsense that the Vietnam market hasn’t made much progress. |
Just looked back and I don’t get why someone would be commentating all year with no stake. |
Amt filtered. No useful input |
Strange the VOF monthly report stated the opposite.
Q3 was below expectations due to a typhoon
It will be vital for corporates to “shake it off” and deliver a strong 4Q24 to achieve the consensus full-year earnings growth target of 20%, although our Research team have begun to guide down the expected earnings growth for the year to 15-17% based on our models and universe of coverage.
It demonstrates to me how opaque business is in Vietnam and I wouldn't take these statistics at face value.
For years now we have heard of very rapid growth in earnings and I would have thought the pe would have fallen a lot in the last few years since the markets haven't made much progress. |
I saw it after I typed it! The numbers in the article suggest earnings are beating upgraded forecasts. The January update agreed with many other analysts that 2024 market earnings would rise 10-15%. When this was quickly met with a strong Q1, they raised forecasts to 15-20%. By the July update, the FY target was 19%. I'd forgotten that VOF's latest update had downgraded to 15-17% but the main Index has actually posted +22% in Q3 and Edison now have this VNH report of only two days ago, which seems like a big upgrade:
Despite a strong performance, Vietnamese equities remain historically low-priced, trading at 10.1x forward earnings, based on LSEG consensus expectations of 25% y-o-y EPS growth. This implies a 23% discount to the 10-year average multiple and makes Vietnam one of the most inexpensive markets in the region. Based on reported earnings, Vietnamese equities trade at a 19% discount to their long-term averages, despite a good outlook for 2024 growth.
h ttps://www.edisongroup.com/research/first-redemption-tender-a-success/34169/ |
Aleman
You make a statement
"Meanwhile Vietnamese earnings seem to be beating already upgraded forecasts:"
Where did you see that statement ? |
Car sales have taken off in the last two months, though they are relatively low in Vietnam. October sales of 35k+ units were 10% higher than any previous October. I suspect it is a sign of lower interest rates making finance more affordable and the surge in the gold price in the last few months will make some older Vietnamese, who might have accumulated some significant savings in gold, feel MUCH wealthier than they did a year ago. However, it's worth commenting that there might have been some Typhoon-damaged cars replaced. (Severe storms anywhere in the world are generally considered to weaken an economy in the very short term and then stimulate them in the medium term.) Typhoon Yagi might also have generated some short-term selling of shares.
Stockmarkets held flat today but the £ has fallen against the Dong, so the discount could still be 25%+ despite VOF recovering slightly. |
There seems to be a growing expectation that Emerging Market Status will be granted for Vietnam by September, and possibly as early as March.
Meanwhile Vietnamese earnings seem to be beating already upgraded forecasts:
In terms of market cap, the VN30 Index constituents (comprising the 30 largest blue chips on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange) were the earnings leaders, posting a 22% increase in Q3. Earnings by mid-caps and small-caps grew 14.6% and 21%, respectively.
Despite earnings up 20%+ and a market up about 10% since the start of the year, foreigners continue to sell, with 2024 headed for a record of about $3bn+ each for VNI and Hanoi. This is unsustainable. Foreigners can't keep selling at this rate. Emerging Market Status is expected to generate inflows and strongly rising earings mean the falling market market P/E will make it even more attractive. |
A second day of strong rise on the VNI suggests the discount here has gone over 26%. Outside of Covid/March 202, this is the lowest sustained discount for about 8 years. |
It's odd for the discount to reach 25% and stay there. It would typically start the climb back to 20% or less from here.
h ttps://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/T/I161/vinacapital-vietnam-opportunity-ord-$001 |
"During Trump's first administration, Vietnam and Germany were major beneficiaries of the displaced trade between US and China."
That's from the Treasury Select Committee today @ 49:15:
So maybe international investors were wrong to sell off on Trump's win? |
I suppose a bearish outlook is inevitable given the thread of tariffs. On the other hand, its not apparent how the US will be able to replace its imports with its own manufacturing in the short term. Also US industry itself is dependent on many of the imports, so it would be daft if Trump caused problems for his own 'make America great again' business growth strategy. (daft... hmm...well... I'm saying nothing).
Vietnam may actually benefit from tariffs applied to China, by being able to replace Chinese exports, which would be nice in lots of ways.
This gives some idea of their exports in 2023:
Top5:
Electrical machinery 42bln
Nuclear reactors 17bln
"Furnitures" 12bln
Textiles: 8bln
Clothing 7bln
Maybe the bearish outlook is already substantially in the share price anyway. |
Strange how it goes quiet here when the markets are falling.
The latest monthly update is out and reads somewhat bearish to me. |
Higher duty/higher prices could actually accelerate the transfer of manufacturing to Vietnam. (Not a prediction, though.) Trump's beef was previously the Dong/$ exchange rate and Vietnam seems ready to deploy growing $ reserves to ameliorate potential future depreciation. In practical terms, this means buying more $-denominated goods in a world where $-trading is shrinking so the US has a larger share of it. Vietnam will probably just buy more from the US to keep them happy. (Coal and natural gas are 75%+ of electricity generation that is growing rapidly as middle classes and businesses increase such as air conditioning. It would be so easy to buy more for this growing market from the US to keep Trump happy.)
Vietnam's exports to the USA are about 10% of the total. At worst, import duties might knock that back by 1/10th overall - only 1% of total exports, which are up 15% in 2024! US import duties would make almost no difference to Vietnam because overall export growth is so strong. I doubt it will happen anyway.
Also, the CPTPP goes live for the UK next month so stuff Vietnam exports to the US can now come to us as well! I've not seen this mentioned in any of the Vietnamese invetsment trust write-ups yet. All those phones and laptops China makes for us under all sorts of brands can now possibly be bought from Vietnam, along with such as toys, which we mostly buy form China and are highly labour intensive. Vietnamese labour costs are about half of China's so there is a strong incentive to switch. |
Because vn isn't China. So will win relocated factories etc for lower tariffs |
Just realistic. I can't see how Trump victory can be taken as a positive for Vietnam.
Might be for UK by the way |
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