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[dickbush] 22/9/2009 07:36

Vietnam Economy May Expand 5.5% This Quarter, Thoi Bao Reports
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By Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam's economy may expand 5.5 percent in the third quarter and grow 6.5 percent in the last three months of the year, Thoi Bao Kinh Te Vietnam newspaper reported, citing the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

Economic growth may accelerate as local and international markets recover, the ministry forecast at a meeting of the National Assembly's economic committee yesterday, Thoi Bao said. The predicted expansion in the second half of 2009 would help Vietnam achieve its full-year growth target of between 5 percent and 5.2 percent, the newspaper said.

Inflation may accelerate to 7 percent at the end of the year, the planning ministry was cited by Thoi Bao as saying.

Vietnam's economy expanded 6.2 percent last year, the slowest pace since 1999, according to government figures.

[dickbush] 21/9/2009 08:12

New high. Now 3 1/2% from 600 level.

[dickbush] 18/9/2009 21:39

Hi, hiijinx. I think we're all on the same page re Vietnam.

[dickbush] 18/9/2009 12:05

Vietnam market has broken out today to clear blue sky.

[kamitora] 14/9/2009 09:11

Imagine the amount of money you would have made if you had started investing in China 10 years before the hot money started to flow. Your profits would have been absolutely phenomenal – even after the correction over the last two years.

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunities Fund
$1.71 +0.01
Questor says BUY

[dickbush] 14/9/2009 08:57

Vietnam market within less than 1% of breaking out into clear blue sky.

[dickbush] 13/9/2009 12:01

Major positive write-up of the VOF in today's Sunday Telegraph.

[dickbush] 11/9/2009 08:36

New rally high-just.

[dickbush] 09/9/2009 13:54

End-month NAV $2.44. Current discount 32%. You'd think this was a bear market.

[eyerishmann] 08/9/2009 12:01

THANKS ALL

[dickbush] 08/9/2009 11:35

eye

I think hiijinx is right. I got a load of BS related to the quote being in $ when I tried to buy the shares for my Hargreaves Lansdown SIPP. Pure laziness. HL even have an in-house currency dealing department which gives very competitive exchange rates. So dealing in $ and settling in £ shouldn't be a problem for them. I'll be moving my account when things quiet down. Barclays stockbrokers will let you deal, although not on-line. Has to be the old fashioned phone service for this one. The exchange rate was good too.

[hiijinx] 07/9/2009 18:10

eyerishmann, maybe the problem is its quoted in dollars not pounds even though its listed on the londion exchange

[dickbush] 07/9/2009 10:34

I don't believe so. My broker turned me down and I had to put into a taxable account.

[eyerishmann] 04/9/2009 09:31

Can I put this fund in my ISA?

[dickbush] 04/9/2009 09:16

Vietnam Stocks May Advance on Economic Data, Vincom's Tuan Says

By Nguyen Kieu Giang

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam's benchmark stock index, the world's fourth-best performer this year, may rise as much as 29 percent in 2009, bolstered by positive economic data, according to Vincom Securities Joint-Stock Co.

The Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange's VN Index may "touch 700 at some point" by the end of December "if exports recover well," Phan Anh Tuan, vice general director at Hanoi-based Vincom Securities, said in a telephone interview today. The gauge has rallied 71 percent this year to 540.81 at yesterday's close, after dropping 66 percent in 2008.

"The prospects for the local market are very optimistic from now to the end of the year," Tuan said. "By the end of October, all economic information will be revealed more clearly and no shock is expected on the policy front that will significantly affect the market."

Growth has become more visible through expanding industrial and agricultural output after the first eight months, creating strong momentum for the remainder of the year, Government Office Chief Nguyen Xuan Phuc said Sept. 1. Tuan's prediction contrasts with Credit Suisse Group AG's advice on Sept. 2 for investors to sell Vietnam's equities amid "excessive" valuations and as lending slows.

The VN Index, which advanced for a sixth straight month in August, surging 17 percent, has been beaten this year by only benchmark gauges in Peru, Sri Lanka and Istanbul.

'Some Corrections'

The price-to-book ratios for the largest Vietnamese companies are the second-highest in Asia, excluding Japan, while price-to-earnings valuations are the highest when non-operating income is excluded, Credit Suisse analysts Joseph Lau and Dan Fineman wrote in a report Sept. 2.

"The market's recent run provides a good opportunity to take money out," the report said. "Surging bank credit has fuelled Vietnam's rally since April, and we expect slowing bank credit to end the market's outperformance."

The central bank aims to cap expansion in lending at 30 percent and will try to slow loan growth in the coming years after credit grew 25 percent in the eight months through August, State Bank of Vietnam Governor Nguyen Van Giau said on Aug. 28.

The nation's economy may grow 5.5 percent this year, while inflation has slowed to the lowest level in more than seven years, Government Office Chief Phuc said in a statement on the government's Web site, citing a Ministry of Planning and Investment's forecast.

The stock market's "uptrend will continue although there will be some corrections along the way, and the index may go down to about 500 before jumping to 700," Tuan said. "In the third quarter, earnings of companies in some sectors like commodities, real estate or confectionery are expected to outperform."

[dickbush] 02/9/2009 09:02

Market rose a little, as it did yesterday, to a new rally high. VOF must be standing at a 30% discount to published NAV.

[dickbush] 01/9/2009 21:21

Bull market starting to find its feet?
Vietnam's main stock market is rallying fast among the globe's best performing indexes, but some analysts strongly believe it could go higher by the year's end.


Growing numbers of investors are willing to have a crack
Vietnam's main bourse, the VN Index, last week closed August 28 at 536.53 points, up 17 per cent from 458.04 points ending July and 19.6 per cent from 448.29 points in June. So far, the index has rallied 127 per cent from its lowest level of 235.5 points on February 24.

Numerous market analysts said the domestic market was now among the world's best rallying indexes in terms of recovery and might pullback. However, Tri Viet Investments Company director Pham Thanh Tung said: "The Vietnamese market recovery story has not ended. We expect the VN Index to rally an additional 20-30 per cent from here by the year's end," Tung told his company's clients in mid August when the VN Index was at 510 points.

Tung said his company's "Crisis: When to Buy" research report from January, 2009 correctly predicted the domestic market would bottom out at around the 235-269 point range in February, 2009. The research studied the connection between stock markets and economies during crisis periods to decide market peaks and bottoms.

"Our research found that the VN Index would begin to recover in March and last 9-11 months. If our model comes true, the VN Index will rally by [a maximum] 196-231 per cent from its lowest to peak in the 695-890 point range," Tung said.

Tong Minh Tuan, deputy head of BIDV Securities Company (BSC), said when investors strongly expected an economy and stock market recovery, they would heavily buy in and that could make the market go higher.
"When the money flows in, we cannot imagine how the market can go [up]," he said.

Tuan, however, noted short-term investors faced more risks than rewards as the supply side was on the rise. Duong Hong Ha, Tri Viet Investments' senior technical analyst, said the market was now forming a "cup and handle" model with strong trading volumes, which signalled a long-term bull market ahead.

"The next target for the VN Index will be the 630-650 point range," Ha said, adding that the time for the market to reach that level might be long or short, but the overall long-term bull market trend had not changed. "Investors should cash in during market weaknesses," he said.

Investors have been concerned about commercial banks' liquidity after numerous banks rushed to raise short to long-term deposit rates that could affect money inflows into equities. "The recent market rally is thanks to retail and institutional investors, foreign investors' money, not from banks or borrowed money. Therefore, the rally is sustainable," said Tung.

"More money has shifted from less profitable bank savings to higher reward equities investment." Foreign investors were holding around $500 million on the market sidelines waiting for market opportunities, Ha said.

[dickbush] 31/8/2009 10:52

U.S., Vietnam Seek to Limit China, Keep Power Balance (Update1)

By Jason Folkmanis

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. and Vietnam want to limit Chinese influence in Southeast Asia by maintaining a balance of power with other countries in the region, a former American ambassador in Hanoi said.

"The U.S. and Vietnam have a convergence of strategic interests, among which is to maintain a balance in Southeast Asia," Raymond Burghardt, the U.S. ambassador to Vietnam from 2001 to 2004, and now director of East-West seminars at the East-West Center in Honolulu, said in a telephone interview.

U.S. interests in its relationship with Vietnam include "shared concern over the rising strength of China," the Congressional Research Service said, in a report dated July 29. Deputy U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Scot Marcieltold Congress on July 15 that China warned oil companies not to explore in offshore areas that Vietnam considers its territory.

China and Vietnam have a history of conflict dating back thousands of years, with the latest war taking place in 1979. The two countries have jousted recently over Chinese warnings on oil companies drilling in areas that Vietnam claims.

The U.S. last month joined a friendship pact with Southeast Asia and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told journalists in Thailand that the U.S. "is back" in the region. China acceded to the accord six years earlier.

Seeking Cooperation

"The Vietnamese are never going to want to be in-your-face to the Chinese about it, but in reality they do seek the cooperation of other countries, both their Southeast Asian neighbors as well as big countries like the U.S. and to some extent Japan and India as well, to make sure there's a sufficient balance of power that ensures that the Chinese can't do whatever they want," Burghardt said.

The U.S. and Vietnam have overlapping strategic interests, Mark Manyin, a Washington-based specialist in Asian affairs at the Congressional Research Service, write in the report, entitled "U.S.-Vietnam Relations in 2009: Current Issues and Implications for U.S. Policy."

Vietnam wants to "repair and deepen its relationship with China, while simultaneously buttressing this by improving relations with the U.S. as a counterweight to Chinese ambition," he wrote. American interests include "countering China's increasing regional influence," Manyin said.

"On the one hand, maintaining stable, friendly relations with its northern neighbor is critical for Vietnam's economic development," Manyin wrote. "On the other hand, many Vietnamese are wary of China's increased influence in Southeast Asia," he said.

Exxon Mobil

China has also told international oil companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. that they will be excluded from the Chinese market should they fulfill contracts to participate in Vietnamese exploration projects in or near disputed waters in the South China Sea, Manyin wrote.

"Starting in the summer of 2007, China told a number of U.S. and foreign oil and gas firms to stop exploration work with Vietnamese partners in the South China Sea or face unspecified consequences in their business dealings with China," Marciel told the U.S. Congress.

In 2007, BP Plc abandoned planned exploration in an area known as Block 5-2 between the Spratlys and an existing BP- operated gas project in Vietnamese waters, because of competing ownership claims between China and Vietnam, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

"Disagreements over the Spratlys and nearby areas had seemed to calm down and now they've heated up again," said Burghardt. "Part of the reason is that China is trying to expand its influence."

The Spratly Islands are claimed in whole or part by Vietnam, China, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.

[dickbush] 31/8/2009 09:34

Vietnam market up 2% despite a 7% decline in China. Now within 3% of the peak a year ago, after which it looks like clear blue sky. It rose 17% in August and is now up 30% since the end of May when VOF were $1.56.

[dickbush] 24/8/2009 09:11

Another new rally high by the Vietnamese Index. Now within 6% of the highest level over the past 12 months. Once past that its clear blue sky.

[davebowler] 20/8/2009 16:48

Good volume today.
Any of you looked at ASPL?