Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[grippa] 23/11/2006 10:51

Don, Thanks i will check it out. Vietnam index closed at its highest level ever today at 636.95 up about 110% so far this year!!

[don muang] 22/11/2006 21:30

grippa ... seems there is a second Macao reality fund now ..... last week Speymill Macau (MCAU) was listed. Don't think I'll be buying as already happy with MPO and not looking for increasing any investments at the moment.

The following is an excerpt from the listing notice:
Executive Chairman, Speymill Group plc, Bob MacDonald said: "Macau is an outstanding opportunity and it represents one of the most compelling property investment cases we see at the current time".

[don muang] 22/11/2006 12:44

thanks .... at least we seem to agree the far east is a good area to be invested in long term wise ..... whether or not it is flavour of the month....

[grippa] 22/11/2006 10:09

Don...I appreciate your response, thank you. And like you I think MPO is a seriously interesting play too. Good luck.

[don muang] 21/11/2006 12:21

Well, Grippa if you re-read my posts you'll find I have pointed out that there are two main Vietnam funds which I have approx. equal holding in. I've not suggested anyone buy either i.e. I'm not pushing either. As I write this then VOF are up 0.7% and VNH are up 2.6% so far today. My personal feling is that VNH will out perform VOF in terms of share price over the next 12 months - but I'm aware that everyone else on the advfn BB's would disagree with that opinion.

If I wasn't already a holder of both I'd actually be uncertain whether to buy in to either. I'm not too confident of the macroeconomic outlook. I remain a holder as I'm in reasonable profit and there's probably plenty of upward side still - combination of lots of people 'discovering' Vietnam and the forthcoming SOE disposals.

Property might also be a nice little earner (VNL) - but reality prices are already quite high - some Thais have already done very well in property in the Land of the Blue Dragon - but they're somewhat unsure now whether reality prices will continue to increase at a rate they've already profited on in VN. Therefore I've confined my 'paper' property interests to Macau and its environs - via MPO.

[grippa] 21/11/2006 10:19

Don...I do realise that I am rather focused on Vinacapital as centre of my Vietnamese investment world...But having met most of the key players at their offices in HCM city, I am very confident in them. The case for investing in VNH a fund that I know nothing about and that states in it's listing memorandum

"VNHAM will establish offices in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and in Zurich. VNHAM has appointed quondam viet nam partners ltd as its investment adviser to provide it with investment advice and additional administrative services. To further supplement the local and international expertise of the VNHAM"

doesnt fill me with confidence that they truly have the same level of expertese on the ground as vinacapital. And in a country whereby things still dont happen 100% as they should, I feel a strong presence is imperative.

Obviously with the present hype and focus on Vietnam all funds will do well, and quite honestly just by being in Vietnam all funds should do well, but I am just much happier going with a fund I have met and feel very confident in, versus a fund that has joined the game a little bit late IMO. I also invest in one of Dragon Capitals funds so am keen to find out what are the key points of VNH that made you invest bar the lower premium to NAV? As I am always looking to increase exposure to Vietnam.

[don muang] 21/11/2006 09:11

Presently trading at $2.91 / $ 2.94 - last NAVwas $2.07 - so that's a premium of over 40%.

VNH (Vietnam Holdings) is at a much lower premium. I think that has a lot going for it as well - but seems overlooked or ignored by most VOF 'fans'. It hasn't got quite the PR machine behindit as Vina Cap

So it's a matter of checking out VOF and VNH and deciding which you personally feel comfortable buying in to.

[nissi beach] 21/11/2006 08:58

how does the NAV of $2 compare to a 3p price or is that £3. What is the conversion factor

Is it really trading at 3 times NAV?

[grippa] 21/11/2006 08:51

Great interview with Horst Geicke on Bloomberg tv yesterday.

Watwung...Dragon capital also offer a 100% equities fund VGF which can be traded OTC in ireland. Deutchse bank also has a vietnam fund. IMO VOF offers the greatest diversity and with their huge presence on the ground in Vietnam and long good track record, they should be best placed to continue this in the years to come. VNL is also the only property specific fund that I know of, and Vinacapital have also now joined up with a Californian Venture capital firm to offer a closed end technology fund! Good luck.

[don muang] 21/11/2006 07:36

Merill Lynch are very bullish on Vietnam - they issued a report which is extremely positive over a ten year time scale for Vietnam.

I've split my holding between two London listed Vietnam funds. This one (VOF) and VNH (Vietnam Holdings). Presently VOF is at a much higher premium than VOF. It's debatable if that is justified. Both funds are interested in opportunities like the state owned enterprises and real estate.

There's a specific property fund out there - VNL. But as we're already in a specialist fund then I decided not to get in to a single investment type.

As I've mentioned before, things in emerging markets can change very quickly if macroeconomic events arise e.g. the fall of the previously booming Thai currency and stock exchange in 1997. So nothings a dead cert.....

[watwungyi] 21/11/2006 00:03

Hello everyone,

Does any of you know any other funds (either closed or open) which invest in Vietnam? I learnt from a Vietnamese economist doing PhD at a London university who said that Vietnamese economy is picking up. And I also noted recently in FT about investment in Vietnam (I think last week or so). It said what is listed on the Viet stockexchange is just tip of the iceberg. Many thriving companies are yet to be listed and hence out of sight from outside investors.
In the past five years, a closed end fund on Indonesia gave a total return of about 600%. I think Vietnam could become truly 'next big thing'.

[grippa] 20/11/2006 11:17

Interesting article on the Vietnam oppurtunity fund on page 11 of the FT fm section today.

[grippa] 17/11/2006 13:27

Don...At school I was always told to pay more attention to what I read...seems the same is still true. I think on a longterm view Vietnam should be pretty secure, but the 'eggs in basket' phrase is always true, it's just a question of weighing up how much to have in the basket to make it worthwhile.

[don muang] 17/11/2006 12:32

interesting article:

[don muang] 17/11/2006 11:58

if you read my post I do say at a`premium until the next NAV is released .... no one knows what NAV will be at end of month .... could go shooting up ... or if there's a macroeconomic 'failure' somewhere it could fall. I remember well the stock markets going up like this in the mid 1990's in Thailand .... that fell faster than it had shot-up
(never put all your eggs in one bag ... even the unsinkable Titanic sank .... )

[grippa] 17/11/2006 10:52

Don...The HCM index has gone up 12.25% since 31st Oct Vof has gone up 17.88% so not too much of a premium when you look at it this way, obviously this is slightly distorted as VOF is not 100% invested in the HCM index, but at least some of underlyings are moving up.

[grippa] 17/11/2006 10:02

Here is the oct monthly report.



Calm...just to illustrate why Vinacapital should be at a premium to other funds, Vinacapital are organising the "Doing Business with Vietnam Forum" in cooperation with the Vietnam Chamber of commerce and industry. This is coinciding with the Apec CEO conference in Hanoi and brings together 1000 participants, including the Prime minister and memeber of his govt as well as many Vietnamese business leaders.

They are without doubt the leading investment company in Vietnam and for that they should be at a premium.

[grippa] 17/11/2006 09:20

Ho Chi Minh stock index up 2.49% at 573.79...the 600 level is nearing once again.

[don muang] 17/11/2006 08:34

offer now at 2.90 - at this rt it'll be at a premium of 50% before the next NAV news

[calmtrader] 15/11/2006 15:40

Thxs Grippa i do like the look of vietnam... i was in india very early but came out too early.

i think i'm going to buy some of these...

[grippa] 15/11/2006 15:21

From the beginning of Jan last year the Vietnamese stock index went from a level of 305 in early Jan to a high of 633 at the end of Apr a rise of 107.4%. Meantime the share price of VOF went from around $1.76 to $2.65 a rise of 49.6%, so big moves are not un-common particularly when there is so much growth to come!

[grippa] 15/11/2006 13:53

Calm, you might want to check out Vinacapitals property fund too VNL on aim.

[grippa] 15/11/2006 13:51

Calmtrader...IMO this is the best vehicle, they have a huge presence on the ground in Vietnam, they have a very committed and young mostly American educated Vietnamese born employees, mostly notably the man who set Vinacapital up 'Don Lam'. They have about 5 offices worldwide with 80 employees, so they have a huge head start over the funds starting now. Dragon Capital also have some good performing funds quoted on the OTC market in Ireland (harder to trade) VNH is another fund to recently be set up in congunction with Rothschild (i think) but am not sure if they have people on the ground in Vietnam. Deutsche Bank is setting up a fund.
VOF has a great track record over the last few years, and seem to have very good access to great deals and entry into private companies. Check out their website www.vinacapital.com they are a serious company.

Is the premium of about 39% warranted? Not sure? But historically it has traded at a big premium to NAV, but obviously given the increased spotlight on Vietnam with WTO entry and Apec meeting, it might have gotten ahead of itself for the moment. However...the vietnamese economy and stock market are set for huge growth over the next few years, the stock market has gone up nearly 100% over the last year but there is plenty more to come.

My advise is that if you have a longterm view 5-10 years you cant really go wrong, but buy in 3 tranches just to be sure.

[calmtrader] 15/11/2006 12:38

i'm looking at investing in Vietnam and having been watching this stock for the last six months....nothing has happened and now in the last week they have shot up..

two questions really

1. is this the best vehicle to do it...does anybody know of others.

2. and why does VOF has such a high premium?

[grippa] 15/11/2006 11:02

Don...do you think this rise is just due to Vietnam hosting the Apec meeting and being accepted into the WTO. If so how come none of the other Vietnam funds are reacting this way...unless of course VOF is due to release some very good news shortly?!?