Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[dickbush] 15/4/2009 15:55

A 40,000 share buy at 125 just reported.

[knowing] 15/4/2009 12:08

This gives a good view on NAV value

[dickbush] 15/4/2009 12:05

hiijinx

With the shares at a 35% plus discount to NAV I would say they are very cheap. When/if the Vietnam market really gets going the discount should narrow. Last time it was hot the discount actually moved to a premium because there are so few ways of getting into the market-unless you want to travel to Vietnam to prove you're a reputable investor. Having said all that, you still have to take a positive view of the market, which I do long term. After all we're taking about a population of 85 million with a very high literacy rate, tough and determined, competitive with China and, like China, gradually privatising whole sectors of the economy.

From Vinacapital today:

Capital market update

Vietnamese equities rallied 14.7 percent in local currency terms over March, tracking gains seen across global emerging markets, but notably outperforming the MSCI Frontier and Asian Indices by 5.9 and 5.0 percent, respectively. The Vietnam Index closed March at 281 points. Year to date, the Index is down 10.6 percent, in line with equity markets globally, but off the low of 235.5 seen in the last week of February.
Overall, the latest attempt by the US Treasury and Federal Reserve to re-establish confidence in the US financial and debt markets helped buoy sentiment toward equities markets worldwide. Earlier gains seen in March were sustained during and following the G-20 London summit, where news of USD1.0 trillion being made available to the IMF and World Bank to lend to countries in need of external liquidity helped to extend gains in world markets.
In Vietnam, several local initiatives also helped boost market sentiment. Bank lending was boosted by the government's loan-interest subsidy programme, where exporters and manufacturers can borrow from banks at a net interest cost of 4.5-5.5 percent. A total of VND218 trillion (USD12.3bn) in lending was disbursed through the first week of April. In addition, preliminary balance of trade figures showed a substantial narrowing of the trade deficit and exports appear to be contracting at a slower (-15.3 percent) annualised rate than many other Asian export-oriented economies. This has lifted hopes that Vietnam may be headed for a reasonable 4 percent GDP growth rate this year (the IMF has estimated 5 percent).
Similar to many markets, valuations in Vietnam remain firmly anchored in value territory. The composite of HOSE and HaSTC stocks trade at a trailing P/E and P/B multiple of 12.3x and 1.6x respectively, as of 10 April 2009, with a combined market capitalisation of about USD12 billion. Guidance on earnings growth for many firms for 2009 is fairly conservative, given weaker domestic demand, soft commodity prices and export trends. This however, is offset somewhat by the Government's export and fiscal stimulus (estimated at USD6bn of direct spending and indirect support) which is expected extend into infrastructure and labour-intensive public works in the coming months.
As an emerging market, Vietnam's stock market outlook will be heavily influenced by macro and liquidity driven factors. Despite this, Vietnam remains well positioned for a return to high economic growth rates and robust equity markets as soon as 2010. The country is positioned to be a leading indicator for a recovery in global trade and investment given the export driven nature of the country's manufacturing base and Vietnam's comparative cost advantage to China, given a slightly weaker VND, and a more competitive wage and cost structure.

[s4tan] 14/4/2009 18:52

when the time is right I'm sure Santa will prove his numbers etc etc etc..


goodnight...


bye...

[dickbush] 14/4/2009 16:07

The Vietnamese Dong fell by 1 1/2% from end-Feb to End-March. So an increase in the NAV of 1.7% represents a serious underperformance of the markets. They must have written down some property investments and/or are accounting for unquoted at cost at both month-ends. Either would suggest a conseravtive valuation of the assets.

[dickbush] 14/4/2009 14:43

March was a relatively upbeat month for Vietnam
with announcements of 2.5% export
growth and 3.1% GDP growth year-on-year in
1Q09. With exports in the past decade rising
to as high as 70% of Vietnam's GDP, and with
roughly 60% of Vietnam's exports going to
developed countries, these numbers appear
markedly resilient in the face of the global
macroeconomic downturn.
Inflation was back into negative territory at -
0.2 % in March, and now stands at 11.3%
YoY, a sharp drop from the 23.8% peak in
August 2008. The trade surplus for 1Q09
stands at an estimated US$1.65 billion. The
combined factors have enabled the Government
to focus aggressively on stimulating the
economy. By increasing the VND/USD trading
band from +/-3% to +/-5%, the Dong was
able to depreciate by 2% in March in an effort
to support export competitiveness. Also, with
retail sales up 21.9% on year in 1Q09, this is a
strong indicator that the Government's focus
on stimulating domestic demand and consumption
in the face of a difficult export environment
is yielding results.

[dickbush] 14/4/2009 12:27

Between the end of Feb and the end of March the Ho Chi Minh Index rose 14% and the Hanoi Index rose 17%

[dickbush] 14/4/2009 12:15

Between end-Feb and end-March the Ho Chi Minh Index rose 14% and the Hanoi Index rose 17%.

[dickbush] 14/4/2009 09:16

Make that 11% after today's rise.

[dickbush] 13/4/2009 09:09

Since our close on Thursday night the Vietnamese market has risen over 9%.

[dickbush] 10/4/2009 13:27

Thnaks, hiijinx.

Friday

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average swung between gains and losses before closing 0.5 percent higher. South Korea's Kospi index advanced 1.5 percent, China's Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.7 percent to an eight-month high, while the Vietnam Stock Index posted the region's largest advance of 4.3 percent. Markets in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Hong Kong are closed today for holidays.

Jiangxi Copper Co., China's biggest producer of the metal, rallied 10 percent after prices for the metal rose to the highest in five months. Cathay Financial Holding Co. climbed 4.6 percent after Taiwan's biggest listed financial-services company swung to a net profit in the first quarter.

MSCI's Asian gauge has rallied 25 percent from a five-year low on March 9 as governments and central banks expanded measures to alleviate the global recession. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso is expected to unveil today a $154 billion spending plan to revive growth, his third stimulus plan since taking office last September. The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark rate unchanged yesterday saying there are signs the economy's deepest contraction in more than a decade may be abating.

[dickbush] 10/4/2009 10:00

Go to Bloomberg and enter Vietnam in the Search News at top right.

I last saw a forecast of small growth of circa 2% for this year.

Vietnam market up to a new rally high of 325 today, up over 4%. That compares with 245.7 at the end of Feb when the NAV was $1.77. End- March NAV should be out early next week.

[hiijinx] 09/4/2009 18:35

does anyone have any figures on vietnams expected growth for 09 & 10 ? also would you know where i can get historical data from the vietname stock index, they dont seem to track it on advfn.

[dickbush] 09/4/2009 16:30

For good or ill I've doubled up today. Makes the holding only half as profitable (less after the expenses and the spread) but I'm convinced the Far East is the way to go, and I'm sure I'm not the only one not able to stock pick in Vietnam. This is as good a vehicle as any.

[dickbush] 08/4/2009 15:42

Sorry, Pudpud, I can see your confusion. No need for a phone call to the immigration people. I'm just a harmless old share buyer.

[dickbush] 07/4/2009 14:32

I've been there, too and it wouldn't surprise me either if they became another Singapore. Very impressive people. I've bought a few after watching for a year or so. I missed the last bull market. Hoping to see another. Very profitable currently but I need to double up to make it a worthwhile holding.

[traderabc] 04/4/2009 15:30

'it a singapore waiting to happen!

I have heard that too, I own these as well, I suspect it may be a few years before I can break even, let alone make a profit, however it should recover if it truely represents the Vietman stock indexes.

[transco3] 04/4/2009 12:18

Im in and have been so for a couple of years. I bought some more when you could get 2 dollars to the pound. Alas the bear market hit and it tumbled. there is a really good vietnam stock market web site - market rose friday big stylr over 4%!! this share lags their market - one to stay with. I have been to vietnam it a singapore waiting to happen!

[pudpud] 03/4/2009 17:30

I am. Do you think anyone has noticed its moved up about 50% in just under 2 weeks?

[dickbush] 24/3/2009 15:23

Anyone else in this?

The chart is beginning to look pretty good, although I say that as a non-chartist. Ditto the underlying Vietnamese market. Still a huge discount to published NAV which must be up since the end of February. Just about every strategist is coming round to the idea of investing in emerging markets, which should help the market and a reduction in the discount to NAV.

[dickbush] 10/3/2009 16:10

Definitely.

The Vietnamese stockmarket has been on the recovery trail for the past two weeks and is up 7% from the low. With the US stockmarket rallying the discount to nav should close up a little as well.