Victoria Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[peterpowell21] 24/5/2018 12:56

sleveen

No you are reading it all wrong, HAAK still thinks they are making a profit.
Just wait till next years results come out.
They will make this one today look fantastic.

[peterpowell21] 24/5/2018 12:52

el-tel

should have sold the lot mate.
This is heading one way, and its not north.
But foo is doing well out of it. lol.

[highasakite] 24/5/2018 12:52

What about the huge liabilites on the balance sheet and the fact they have no cash left ?

[sleveen] 24/5/2018 12:48

Indeed. That's why I invested on the BIOX news about 6 weeks ago, when the prospects for the future appear to be good.

[sleveen] 24/5/2018 12:44

Heading for a $10m loss for 2018.

[highasakite] 24/5/2018 12:44

A $10 million loss is about £7 million.

MTL lost £13 million in 2017.

LOL

[peterpowell21] 24/5/2018 12:43

When will all time low appear again.
Before the placing or after.
Tick tock.

[sleveen] 24/5/2018 12:42

BIOX circuit appears to being as predicted , therefore 100k oz gold will be produced for the next 10 years.


Even if ENEO return, VOG are heading for a $10m loss in 2018.

[peterpowell21] 24/5/2018 12:41

What a dog this is.
Can't believe people keep getting sucked in here by those that are losing a fortune.
But are still ramping this dog every day.
Such sad people. So glad i sold at 62p and was called a loser by said rampers. Ha ha.

[dodge city] 24/5/2018 12:36

Placing ahoy.

[highasakite] 24/5/2018 12:30

"Can't believe that the MC is still £43m...outrageous."


Sleveen

If you think VOG's £43 million is outrageous tell us how you justify MTL's £66 million with their huge liabilities ?

Go on.

[highasakite] 24/5/2018 12:28

The revised year end production targets are 11.3mmscf/d if ENEO is back online by 1 July 2018 and 7.8mmscf/d if they remain offline.


The above are the GROSS production figures to the JV, not net to VOG.



We know this. We are not stupid. 57% to VOG.

[highasakite] 24/5/2018 12:27

LOL

MTL are running on fumes. Look at their accounts. Look at the liabilites. Toxic.

Try and justify the MTL market cap to us all.

WRES are a basket case.

VOG's market cap looks a steal compated to those 2 loss making dogs.

[sleveen] 24/5/2018 12:25

The revised year end production targets are 11.3mmscf/d if ENEO is back online by 1 July 2018 and 7.8mmscf/d if they remain offline.


The above are the GROSS production figures to the JV, not net to VOG.


IF the ENEO contract is renewed then VOG will be a screaming buy.

[sleveen] 24/5/2018 12:22

HAAK

The difference is I knew the negative with WRES and MTL and I invested recently for the future prospects.

[highasakite] 24/5/2018 12:21

Well said.

[hashertu] 24/5/2018 12:15

Without more information I think is difficult to quantify the cash outflow.
On the plus side, ENEO do seem to be honouring their debt and paying it down quite quickly.
There should be a reasonable increase in gas consumption for power generation in the next few months, with customers who pay their bills. Note the year end target is double current production even without ENEO.
Debt was reduced by $1.1m in the period.
I am not sure what more you could reasonably expect the company to do, given the Cameroon government is broke.

[highasakite] 24/5/2018 11:56

Indeed it is outrageous given the asset value per share is nearer £1 or £145 million.

[sleveen] 24/5/2018 11:36

Can't believe that the MC is still £43m...outrageous.

[highasakite] 24/5/2018 11:23

Q1 was always going to be bad without ENEO.

The operating model is sound. ENEO will be resolved. Cameroon needs gas to big power and it will happen. The country can't rely on hydro power as very seasonal.

A GSA agreement with ENEO was in place via a contract. If the Cameroon government aren't paying ENEO in a timely manner this is out of VOG's hands sadly.

[3waysout] 24/5/2018 11:03

Macy is completely delusional and has a lot to answer for. There is no business left as the cash is rapidly being depleted. yes they have finally come clean on how bad the situation is but the reality is that there need to be a fundamental change to the operating model. Leveraging the infrastructure network is impossible without customers, especially paying ones at that. If the government thought they were an important part of the supply they would have surely pushed for a GSA to be signed. Reality is there are not.
This has option value only and at that should trade at more than a single digit.

[highasakite] 24/5/2018 09:45

MALCY TODAY:

Victoria Oil & Gas

It has not been the best few months for VOG and their Q1 operations and outlook report today reflects that situation. With gas sales at Logbaba unsurprisingly down significantly after the ‘non-renewal’ of the ENEO grid power GSA there was little that the company could do immediately although signs are clear that remedial action is being taken. The company is ‘confidentR17; that a resolution can be found to the problem which should be in all party’s interests but probably best to take the believe it when you see it approach for the time being.

In the meantime there are actions that can be taken that will at least in part make up for the loss of the ENEO contract such as getting one new client online and three more now commissioning gas fired gensets. (It’s not just VOG who suffer at times like this, business and the community suffer power blackouts as well and have to make alternative arrangements) New clients at higher margins will take time to recover anything like the volumes but start chipping away at the gas sales shortfall. In addition there is potential for non-grid revenue generating business and other grid power customers are in discussions with the company.

There is no way of gilding this particular lily much, the company states that y/e production targets will be 11.3 MMscfd with ENEO or 7.8 MMscfd without it but clearly actions are being taken to remedy the situation in both the ENEO case where discussions are continuing and for alternative sources of gas sales. The company are aware that even with a resumption of the contract it can never be allowed to be as significant a part of the business again, the future is good as the demand will always be there and VOG are the only onshore suppliers of gas in Cameroon but a lesson has been learned here.

[highasakite] 24/5/2018 09:33

Victoria Oil and Gas – how to deliver bad news: well done!

By Nigel Somerville, the Deputy Sheriff of AIM | Thursday 24 May 2018

If you like this, please share this article using the buttons below

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


I previously covered AIM-listed Victoria Oil and Gas (VOG) with reference to an after-hours warning issued after market close, but during the auction. It looked terrible, but there were mitigating factors which looked to have combined in an unfortunate fashion. This morning Victoria has issued a Q1 trading update. It is not pretty, but I have to take my hat off to the company this morning, for it gives full numbers and investors can make a rational decision.

You can read the statement HERE and I won’t try to paraphrase it. Suffice to say that does not make great reading – the principal problem being the non-renewal of a gas sale agreement. We are told that the company is confident that the situation will be resolved (and my reading suggests it is important for the Cameroon economy as there are shortages). But in the meantime it is causing plenty of problems for Victoria.

But for me the critical line is this:

Cash and cash equivalents at end of Q1 18 was $6.0 million (Q4 17: $11.4 million), trade receivables were $4.3 million (Q4 17: $6.2m), trade payables $9.1 million (Q4 17: $8.8 million) and borrowings were $23.4 million (Q4 17: $24.5 million). Net debt was $17.4 million (Q4 17: $13.1 million).

Well that’s a pretty comprehensive set of numbers: we know the cash position, the net debt and net current assets – and we can see how things have deteriorated since the previous quarter.

Well, it might be bad news but top marks to Victoria for telling all. Investors have a pretty good idea of where things are.

ShareProphets spends so much time lambasting companies for failing to fess up, or for failing to give adequate numbers that I think Victoria needs to be congratulated here. No, it is not the news investors wanted, but at least they are being given the full picture. Take note, the rest of AIM!

I wish Victoria well, and hope the gas licence is resolved soon.