Victoria Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[sleveen] 16/2/2018 16:17

bengal1

Does this actually mean their current borrowing is $24m

Yes

[abacus2] 16/2/2018 16:06

Just found out that Savannah are the mystery buyer of the 20%, they couldn't think what to do with all the money!

[falia] 16/2/2018 15:36

guys cha now up 30% , news leaked

[tr4v2] 16/2/2018 15:13

TIMMMMM-BERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

[highasakite] 16/2/2018 15:09

htt p://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/8758/victoria-oil-gas-confident-of-positive-outcome-to-eneo-issue-8758.html

[highasakite] 16/2/2018 14:44

All exploration companies before they get to prodcution have numerous placings to pay for cap ex. VOG are not alone in doing numerous placings.

[highasakite] 16/2/2018 14:29

Up until 2012 ish VOG had ZERO revenue and seemed to survive OK.

[sleveen] 16/2/2018 14:18

..2004-2016 on less than 10 scuffs average per year you plonker.


Indeed when VOG had 100% of revenue, now it's 57%.

[cyfran101] 16/2/2018 14:12

Exclusive video on proactive investors

[highasakite] 16/2/2018 13:42

Come on Laurence read the effing RNS before you release an RNS. I spotted the mistake straight away.

[highasakite] 16/2/2018 13:22

"What else is there to say. Back to 10 scuffs and rapidly reducing.....barely enough to survive the next 3- 6 months..."


3waysout

As VOG did an average of 10.9 scuffs in 2017 you are only predciting a 10% drop to 10 scuffs !!!!

and a 10% drop will mean VOG won't survive. Hilarious

LOL


You aint got a clue.

VOG have survived from 2004-2016 on less than 10 scuffs average per year you plonker.

[highasakite] 16/2/2018 13:19

MALCY:


Victoria Oil & Gas
It is fair to say that the operational update and 2018 guidance announced this morning is a bit of a mixed bag. Operationally last year concluded very well, La 107 and 108 were completed with gas flow rates ahead of expectations with gas sales in the quarter up 18.56% up on the equivalent 2016 number. That made production in the year a highly respectable 10.98 MMscf/d, indeed a record and one that had demand problems not occured would have had the company set very fair indeed. But, and it is a big but, supply projections will be impacted following the news that ENEO does not place its Logbaba and Bassa power stations back on line, the company estimate 13 MMscf/d if online, 9 MMscf/d if not.

So the company has to rethink strategy for 2018 following a macro event with regards to ENEO which was outside of their control. Taking these things one at a time can give us an idea of what scenarios face the company. Firstly there is little doubt that ENEO, the regulator and the Ministry want the gas switched back on, power cuts are becoming more severe with between 10-15 blackouts a day in Douala at the moment so an agreement has to be reached at some stage. ENEO have said that they don’t want GDC to demobilise the kit and cannot afford to lose the 50 MW from the grid out of 1,300 plus another 100MW that is also missing as a result of this action so hope remains.

There are two obvious ways that VOG are planning to counter this loss of such an important customer, firstly by adding more new thermal customers (three were added in the quarter) and secondly by ensuring that existing and new customers can use GDC gas to power their factories and plants. Using bespoke gas to power installations, especially when gas is already on site, can save companies money, often up to 10%, and of course mean that power is not interrupted as it is at the moment. With modest gensets minimal capital is required and local gas can be switched on immediately.

Other ways of minimising the disruption, although in the longer term, is for the company to ramp up its CNG and NGV solutions and develop its markets and to address the possibility of raising prices for its very valuable condensate products.

Losing a 50+% client is not easy but it is possible ENEO will return but in the meantime VOG must assume that it will not and adjust accordingly. Further reductions in costs are under way and capex has been put back but exciting prospects at Matanda and Bomono are still very much in process. Indeed ENEO receivables, announced as being $8.7m in January have already fallen to $5m and are likely to continue to come down. The ENEO saga has been a blow to confidence just when VOG was about to deliver in a big way, whilst there is no sign yet of it blowing over one must remember that there is still a substantial and highly profitable market in Douala which shouldnt be forgotten.

[hashertu] 16/2/2018 11:30

I think a pessimistic outcome for the year is:
Net Revenue $20m
Royalties $3m
Share of production costs $2.5m

Leaves $14.5m available for admin, any capex, interest, 8% tax (in discussion with Cameroon government), etc.
I don't think any work (including perf gun recovery) will be undertaken any time soon on LA108. There is no reason to do it, as it flows anyway from the lower sands, and the lead time to get equipment on site is considerable.
If the existing thermal customers spend time/money installing gen-sets and "mini grids", they are unlikely to switch back to ENEO without a very compelling reason.

So, not the immediate growth story I was hoping for some months ago, but I think they are doing enough to survive, and grow somewhat slower.

[pugugly] 16/2/2018 10:27

Perhaps it has something to do with the avatar !!

[deanroberthunt] 16/2/2018 10:18

I can never work out why people get so attached to a stock...it's a form of mental illness

[highasakite] 16/2/2018 10:10

"The Company believes that ENEO will resume gas consumption relatively shortly because there are significant shortfalls in power supply in Cameroon, with hydroelectric schemes not meeting the current demand. The Company believes that gas fired power remains an attractive solution because it is clean, cheap and readily available."


"I believe that the ENEO issue will be solved as VOG management has prioritised this matter and is focused on achieving a result in the shortest possible timeframe. The Company now has the gas reserves in place to meet industrial and grid power demand for large quantities of gas and power from parties other than ENEO."

[dan de lion] 16/2/2018 09:57

If VOG can get Dangote to generate its own power that would be a quite a welcome boost to gas sales by itself.

[highasakite] 16/2/2018 09:22

"than I expected but the underlying revenue figures were disappointing"


The revenue figures for Q4 were bang on forecast. What were you forecasting ?


"any capital expenditure on infrastructure, connections, repairs, legal and LNG plants is going to eat away VOG's cash position pretty fast."


Until ENEO is sorted cap expenditure will be minimal. The odd connection here and there for minimal cost at most. What LNG plant ?

[sleveen] 16/2/2018 09:20

Good analysis Clunes100

[clunes100] 16/2/2018 09:07

Dead cat bounce from a leaky organisation, some punters must have known the RNS was coming given the last couple of days trading and share price action. The debt and cash positions were better than I expected but the underlying revenue figures were disappointing. The questions are what is VOG's current (now Mid Feb) cash position and cash burn and how long will it be before ENEO comes back on line and paying, plus will West Med be sold.

Dik used the word "believe" a little too often to be believable. When you look at the revenues and consider the remaining VOG percentage, any capital expenditure on infrastructure, connections, repairs, legal and LNG plants is going to eat away VOG's cash position pretty fast.

They say they have shelved financing for the moment, I suspect that is because of ENEO pulling out rather than anything else, the banks suddenly went cool on lending to VOG, so dilution rearing its head again and likely at a very long share price - current shareholders will be decimated.

Without news, VOG will drift as usual.

[fatnacker] 16/2/2018 07:53

Under the circumstances that's a reasonably robust update, plans to cut eneo out of the equation, possible insurance claim, cng

[bengal1] 16/2/2018 07:52

Does this actually mean their current borrowing is $24m.

Cash and cash equivalents at 31 December 2017 $10.4 million, net receivables $6.1m and net debt $14.0 million (31 December 2016: Net cash of $1.8 million)