I guess a few stops are being taken out, profits being taken. I expect another holding RNS after those late trades.
Pull back is annoying but I expect us to return to the re-rate shortly |
thats ok - you don't want high organic growth in the model here. it is a simple debt / equity switch over time. patience will out. huge medium term upside. |
Interesting that the broker has only included 3% revenue growth per year to 2027
If the flooring market recovers this could easily be beaten.
It's looking for direction today. |
Good morning Markie7, good post & fair point.
Looking in X, someone has posted current (pre today RNS I presume) refi consensus pre IFRS EBITDA number for 2027 at £144m.
So with upgrades & possible revenue recovery, there is a fair story of repaying c.£200-300m over next 3-4 years, thus making Markie7s story a good one.
DYOR as ever and views please!
QS99 |
Good update. Only thing I would have done differently is give a strategy on debt as well. If they making c£100m ebitda then they need to be sying where the cash goes. If they can get it down to under 5* ebitda with a path to 3* in 3 years then this is a huge equity opportunity , but that's a tough path to follow.If you can imagine in 3 yrs time holding a £100m ebitda stock with £300m of debt (freshly refinanced) then the equity value here goes through the roof. |
Actually, 1 more for the mo, the RNS reads as though directed at the Refi. that 2027 cost saving annualised number and details provided are astute forward planning. They will IMO as an ex CFO, need to be ahead of those conversations which are already probably at the foothills of negotiation so for debt providers to see the direction of travel of EBITDA (likely 1 of covenants) in 1,2,3 years is good to see.
Then it is what is your view on the macro side of things. With Trump in in the USA, we may see a big stimulus for economy, and in theory (albeit Labour are doing a good job of trying to kill the UK!) the UK housebuilding plans should deliver the same.
lets see
Sorry for ramble
QS99 |
john09 - Is there really a need for 18 posts in just 20 odd minutes of market open? Have you forgot to take your medicine? |
Bit harsh Johno, no, just bringing some realism into the conversation, even mine, the shares have tripled mate and talking of OP and market cap only was wrong, the debt needs to be in the same convo. As I have said, Mr Market provides the direction of travel, I reckon I may have a chance to pick some more up as PIs may see the initial red and offload, let's see if broker notes provide another stimulus to the price....
DYOR as ever and have a good day Johno
QS99 |
Auction number 3 |
QS your 07.56 smelt like someone wanted to buy some shares ! |
Wait for vertical take off again i think ! The trades in first 15 minutes have all the markings of a super day . In fact a super few days |
Morning John0 yes at £1.07 what was not to like?!
Mr Market seems to have spoken now a nice shade of blue....let's see if it can push through £1.30...again will look out for new broker notes as with a c.£80m cost saving push by 2027, IMO that EBITDA number even on flat revenues should be v. material and should make refinancing easier over next 18months to 2 years....DYOR |
I think all day they’ll try and get your shares. They did the same yesterday |
Well it was it was obvious you wanted some QS lol |
Hey Hatfullofsky, good point and agreed which is why I bought in the 40s!
Just wondering after today, what Mr Market will think and how far forward he will look. New broker notes here are key.....DYOR
Good day all
PS picked up some at £1.07 this am... |
Out of auction number 2 at 112 |
You did well babbler |
Got some at 104 pre auction. Nice. |
QS, when quoting EV numbers remember they support 1.2b of sales, margin improvements will make a significant impact plus assets for sale.
Debt is only a problem when you cant refinance. |
Auction number 2 |
A quid!! 😲😲😲 |
And there was I thinking it was going to get taken over. |
Opened at 100p but i think this will be all over the place this morning |
2 more late trades reported 2 x 500k at 119p |
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